Premier League, Sunday, 16/03/2025 at 2:30 pm
Fulham (42) are only five points behind Manchester City (47). The Skyblues are currently in fifth place in the table, which in any case entitles them to participate in European competition.
Actually, these first words sound more like a typical situation description for the Spurs, but the Lilywhites have rarely managed a consistently good run this season.
Tottenham only occupy 13th place in the table (34 points) and far too often have to deal with an unbalanced approach to defense. Given this situation, I am giving my Fulham Tottenham tip for odds of 1.70 on “Fulham Over 1.5 goals”.
If you want to play my Fulham Tottenham tip a little more aggressively, I suggest the match combo “Fulham win & over 2.5 goals” at odds of 2.60. An Interwetten freebet reduces the risk here.
The Cottagers have won their last two home games against the Lilywhites (3-0, 5-3 a.e.t.). Given Tottenham’s current form (3 games without a win in all competitions), another home win is on the cards.
However, you can’t blame Spurs for a lack of entertainment. No other Premier League team has created more goals in their previous league matches than the Lilywhites (96).
Ange Postecoglu can still rely on his attack, which has produced the most goals in the league (55) after Liverpool (69).
The expected goals of the guests are a little lower (47.2 xG), but they are still the fifth-best in the English top flight. In addition, Postecoglu’s players convert their big chances better than any other team in the Premier League (44.9 percent).
These numbers underline how big the concerns about the Spurs’ back line must be. Tottenham have conceded the fourth-most expected goals (48.3 xGA), which is why odds of around 2.25 for a game with at least four goals invite a free bet.
Fulham have won four of their last six competitive matches and have scored “Over 1.5 goals” in each of these four victorious encounters.
Marco Silva’s team is also extremely careful with their big chances (41.3 percent) and therefore scores an average of 1.46 goals per game.
In combination with the Cottagers’ fantastic defensive work, this is enough in many cases. Fulham have only allowed 32.4 expected goals (3rd) – that’s a completely different defensive level than that of the Spurs (48.3 xGA).
In addition, the hosts generally avoid long-range shots from outside the box (28 percent) and instead focus on more promising finishes inside the box (62 percent). Only Liverpool had a higher rate of finishes in this area (64 percent).
Tottenham often extend warm invitations for a path into the penalty area to opposing teams. Only Brighton (66 percent) and Manchester City (65 percent) allowed their opponents more shots inside the box than the Spurs (63 percent).
The high number of goals conceded is therefore no surprise. However, a change in approach is not to be expected from Ange Postecoglu.
Based on the entire season, the Lilywhites have conceded more than one goal in just under 40 percent of their Premier League matches.
Last weekend’s 2-2 draw against Bournemouth can be seen as a success after falling behind 0-2, but it took a fair amount of luck given the expected goals (1.53:2.20 xG in Bournemouth’s favor).
The Postecoglu players can’t always expect that much mercy. However, teams will be able to consistently create big chances against the visitors.
Tottenham have conceded at least 1.70 expected goals in each of the last 11 Premier League matches – often with more than 2.00 xGA.
The Cottagers are undefeated in their last two Premier League games against Spurs (1D, 1U). The last league game at Craven Cottage ended in a bitter defeat for Spurs (0-3).
In my Fulham v Tottenham tip, it doesn’t necessarily have to be a clear defeat for Spurs, but the Lilywhites definitely have to expect two goals against.
My recommendation: Bet on “Fulham Over 1.5 goals”.
