Europa League, Thursday, 20/02/2025 at 6:45 pm
That was not just a defeat, that was an humiliation! Galatasaray’s international ambitions have received a major blow, it seems impossible that we will be able to continue to follow the Turkish record champions in our Europa League tips.
Gala supporters will probably hope to find a few words of encouragement in my Galatasaray Alkmaar tip that will make a comeback possible, but let’s be honest: how can a team that has already conceded 20 goals in the current competition make up for a 4-1 defeat?
The Lions are a byword for spectacular football in the Europa League. So, before I go into more detail, I’ll give away that the offensive combo bet of “Both teams score” and “Over 2.5 goals” could pay off for you, it’s actually a sure thing with this club.
But it’s also the case that Alkmaar perform much worse away from home and I can’t praise their defense. But the Dutch team know that they could potentially lose 2-0.
The fact that they have to secure their place against a team from Turkey should not be a disadvantage, because they have not yet lost! So, dear Gala fans, it could well be that my current tip is not in your favor.
The bookmakers’ forecast
After the 1-4 defeat in the first leg, it is clear that a simple victory is not enough for Galatasaray to dream of progressing here. This is probably why our bookmakers are so optimistic and are offering an average of 1.65, because the guests no longer have to do more.
The value for the guests climbs significantly higher, where 4.50 is not uncommon. It is certainly important to know that Alkmaar has never won away from home in the current EL season.
Will both agree on a draw like in the previous round? Of course, that wouldn’t help the Turkish record champions at all, but if you want to take a chance on this tip, you can look forward to odds of 4.40.
AI prediction Galatasaray vs Alkmaar: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Has the AI already been able to determine that the result of the first leg will be factored into Thursday’s game? At least ChatGPT has provided me with three interesting tips again.
The one with odds around 4.00, which carries the highest risk for you, is “Gala wins by exactly one goal”. If the Lions win, that would be my favorite outcome. With the exception of the 1-4 loss to Alkmaar, all the games were close, so that’s what we can expect on Thursday.
How many goals will there be in the end? The chance of a very spectacular encounter is high, so the AI suggests the “Over 3.5 goals” option. Since the Turks have an average of almost 4.5 goals, I think this tip is by no means unlikely.
If both teams score, we would be in the low-risk range. And let’s be honest: a team like Gala, who has conceded 20 goals and Alkmaar, who has never won away from home, are actually the ones who are decisive for this bet!
Analysis: Galatasaray vs Alkmaar
It’s not really that surprising after the first half of the game! Galatasaray is on the verge of being knocked out of the international competition, and it’s all their own fault. The defensive mistakes couldn’t be compensated for by the offense this time.
Gala had already attracted attention with 19:16 goals in the group stage, with the exception of the 1:1 draw against Alkmaar, all games had at least four goals. Playing a clean sheet? They never had that, and unfortunately this trend is now continuing.
In the first leg of the playoffs, they were crushed 4-1 by Alkmaar, with the four goals against already on the scoreboard after a good hour. Of course, the Lions made life difficult for themselves, because Kaan Ayhan was sent off in the 51st minute.
They have now conceded 23 goals. It is a complete mystery to me how the team has not lost in the Süper Lig and has conceded just one goal on average per game!
Odds Analysis
Galatasaray have conceded goals before half-time in each of the last six games, and that has also happened in both duels against Alkmaar. So it’s no wonder that I can imagine exactly the same thing happening in the second leg. If the Dutch score in the first 45 minutes, Betano offers odds of 2.15.
Since Alkmaar have only ever been behind away from home once and Galatasaray have been behind since the second game, the double chance X2 might also make sense after half an hour, with odds of 1.72.
Ultimately, I don’t think that Galatasaray will turn it around, the deficit is too big for that. However, since Alkmaar don’t do much away from home, I would opt for a 3-1 score in terms of an outcome bet – that would just about be enough for the Dutch team! This result has odds of 12.0 in the Bet365 app.
Galatasaray v Alkmaar: An early shootout?
3-1 against PAOK, 4-3 against Elfsborg, 3-2 against Tottenham and 3-3 against Dynamo Kyiv, it couldn’t have been more eventful in the previous home games. But the trend also shows that there have been no international wins in five matches.
5.5 goals on average in a home game, that really can’t be topped anymore. The problem: in both games against Alkmaar this EL season, there was only one goal, this time it takes at least three – for extra time!
Galatasaray should also know: Whenever Alkmaar also plays against Turkish opponents, something comes out for them in the end. AZ have played nine games against Süper Lig teams and have not lost a single one!
But that doesn’t really need to give Alkmaar any extra self-confidence, because they should be feeling pretty confident after the first leg. Typical for a home game, because the Dutch team did great in the Europa League in their own stadium.
Alkmaar with problems away from home
3:2 against Elfsborg, 3:1 against Fenerbahce, 1:0 against Roma and 1:1 against Gala in the preliminary round, that was quite impressive. The fact that they have now scored four goals in the first game is also important because Alkmaar have fared much less well away from home.
They lost 0-2 to Bilbao, 0-1 to Tottenham and a crazy 3-4 to Ferencvaros. The only point came in the 2-2 draw against Rasgrad, so the only clean sheet in the entire competition was against Roma.
Alkmaar were only once behind at half-time, and even led against Rasgrad. Three times in a row they didn’t concede a goal in the first 45 minutes, then three against Ferencvaros, the faces couldn’t have been more different.
Only once did Alkmaar get away with conceding less than two goals away from home, which of course fits perfectly with the fact that all hell breaks loose in the RAMS Park in Istanbul game after game.
My Galatasaray Alkmaar Tip:
Can Galatasaray still do anything in the second leg of the playoffs? After the heavy 4-1 first-leg defeat to Alkmaar, hopes are not particularly high, because AZ has never lost to a Turkish team in its entire history.
If Galatasaray’s EL games have one thing in common, it’s that they’re incredibly wild. Especially in the RAMS Park, the spectacle knows no bounds, and the goal average even reaches 5.5 – which unfortunately also implies defensive errors.
All in all, I’m willing to take the risk of saying that it will be anything but boring again! Alkmaar can play freely until Gala scores. So my tip for you is:
The 2.5 goals will be scored, both will score!
