Champions League qualifying play-offs, second leg, Tuesday, 27.08.2024 at 21:00
The RAMS Park will be on fire! Galatasaray, the Turkish record champions, are desperate to reach the top flight, but unfortunately the starting position ahead of the second leg in our Champions League qualifying tips is not really good.
On Tuesday, the Turks will have to overturn a 2:3 deficit, as they lost the first encounter against Young Boys from Bern in dramatic fashion, in typical Gala fashion. So they need to catch up, and the Turkish FA has given them an extra day off to do so
It won’t be easy to make it through to the group stage. One curiosity that I discuss in my Galatasaray Young Boys betting tip is the Swiss’ crisis in the league, which strangely enough has no impact on Europe.
However, our bookmakers seem to have a lot of confidence in the Turks, otherwise it cannot be explained that the odds, both regarding the victory on Tuesday and the progression, see Galatasaray clearly ahead.
However, the Galatasaray Young Boys odds can of course also be wrong, as the Swiss can take a wait-and-see approach. In any case, I’ll now tell you in my analysis why I would once again bet on both teams scoring
The bookmakers’ prediction
There are of course two sets of odds to consider for the qualifying second leg. One relates to the win on Tuesday. Here, there is a lot to be said for the home side, with 1.35 against 7.10.
A draw clearly exceeds the odds of 5.00; this result would be enough for the Swiss to progress. Although a 2-2 draw seemed likely for a long time in the first duel, the bookmakers do not seem to be expecting a draw.
At the same time, I will also take a look at the pure progression. 1.50 to 2.50 – the Turks are also ahead here, but the odds are much closer. Will the favorite have his nerves under control?
Analysis: Galatasaray vs Young Boys
Will Galatasaray miss out on the reward for a fantastic, historically strong season? In 2023/24, the Turks finished in triple figures in the Süper Lig, lost just once and, of course, became champions.
As the Turkish league is not one of the very best in Europe, the path does not lead directly to the Champions League. “Only” the play-offs have to be survived, but this is where the toughest opponents in the competition await
Gala has drawn Young Boys Bern, the two teams have never faced each other directly before. I’ll come straight to the first leg, which really wasn’t for the faint-hearted.
Joel Monteiro scored twice for Bern before the break to give them a 2-0 lead. The Turks’ strengths still came through, however, with Michy Batshuayi netting twice within a few minutes
Quota analysis
I think Galatasaray are the stronger team in terms of 1×2 betting. Moreover, the Lions know that they have been eliminated without a win. Since I expect a high-scoring game overall, I add the “Over 2.5 goals” to the home win tip and arrive at odds of 1.70.
I stick to the offensive tactics and even add one more bet to the over/under bets. More than 3.5 goals as in the first leg are the order of the day for me, the odds here are worthwhile at 2.15.
And finally, you can of course also take the risk of a result bet. Taking all the tips so far together, I’m calling for 3:1, which gives us odds of 11.0 at Bet365
Gala go into the second leg with a handicap
It went back and forth, but the last action of the game belonged to the hosts. A handball by Abdülkerim Bardakci led to a penalty, which Filip Ugrinic confidently converted to secure a 3:2 victory.
The handball was doubly painful, as Bardakci was also sent off with a yellow-red card and will now miss the second leg. And I have some more bad news for the Gala fans among you: keeper Fernando Muslera is injured and will not play on Tuesday!
In view of this fact, in combination with the first leg, I’m honestly surprised that even a single Young Boys goal has odds of 1.57 at Betano
They share the defensive problems
Also because the Lions have not yet shown themselves to be particularly stable in defense. There was, for example, the 0:5 against Besiktas in the Super Cup, which exposed a number of weaknesses in the back line.
Galatasaray started the league campaign with a 2:1 win against Hatayspor and also won against Konyaspor in the same manner. The Young Boys will also be aware that they have yet to record a clean sheet.
After all, the champions were guaranteed full concentration by the Turkish FA, as Galatasaray (and the other internationally busy teams) were given a break last weekend.
Young Boys Bern found themselves in a similar situation, and the short break in the Super League probably did them a lot of good. Why? Quite simply because things don’t want to go their way.
The yellow-and-blacks may have impressed against Galatasaray, but they just can’t seem to do the same in everyday life in Switzerland. Five match days have passed and the serial champions have picked up a measly two points!
A 2:2 draw against Yverdon and FC Zurich, plus defeats against Servette Geneva (1:3), St. Gallen (0:4) and Sion (1:2) – nobody expected this. The team has already squandered a lead three times, including against Gala
While the offense has been pretty decent, defensively there are some serious holes – just like with the lions from Istanbul. Only one match had less than 3.5 goals, all others more.
A win in the first leg of the play-offs can be half the battle for Bern. A year ago, after a 0-0 draw against Maccabi Haifa, they won 3-0, and in 2021/22 there were two 3-2 victories against Ferencvaros.
Incidentally, Young Boys have only faced a Turkish club three times in their history, with Fenerbahce coming up against them 14 years ago. The overall result? Two wins and a draw, by no means a bad omen for Tuesday!
My tip:
Can Galatasaray really turn things around? The bookmakers are very optimistic in this regard and expect them to reach the group stage. But beware: the weaknesses in the defense must first be compensated for.
As my analysis quickly showed, Gala and Young Boys share a major weakness. Neither of them play to nil, and the Yellow & Blacks always concede at least two goals (with the exception of the cup).
As a result, I honestly can’t imagine anyone getting through here with a clean sheet. For this reason, only the following bet comes into question:
Galatasaray and the Young Boys score!
