Serie A, Saturday, 17.05.2025 at 20:45
Atalanta goes into the last matchday of Serie A with personnel problems, while Genoa wants to end the season in front of its home crowd. I can hardly see a clear favorite here.
According to my Genoa Atalanta Bergamo tip, everything points to a balanced duel with few chances in front of goal. There is nothing at stake for either team in terms of sport, which opens the door for surprises.
Genoa vs. Atalanta – on paper, a game with no sporting significance. No relegation battle, no European cup goal, no Scudetto dream. And yet there is more excitement here than the table suggests.
While Atalanta has already secured qualification for the Champions League and cannot lose third place, Genoa wants to bid farewell to its fans with a respectable result.
Even though it has been quite a while since their last home win, last weekend’s 2-2 draw against Napoli was a statement: The Grifoni can hold their own against big names – at least when they have a good day.
The home side are also looking to redeem themselves. It would be going too far to talk of revenge, but no one in the red and blue fan base wants to see another 1-5 thrashing like in the first leg against Bergamo.
The Genoese’s great strength is their courageous counterattacks, without allowing themselves to be intimidated by the individual class of their opponents. Of course, this can also go wrong – and unfortunately, it has done so too often recently.
No win in the last five games, a mediocre home record, and not a single competitive game at home this season in which they have scored more than two goals.
But: Genoa usually performs best when there is nothing to lose. And that is exactly the case now. The atmosphere will be right, the weather should be good, and with Pinamonti and Junior Messias, they have two players up front who can create magic at any time.
A few words now about the visitors: Atalanta are currently playing like the top team they are. The 2-1 win against Roma was deserved, even if they did falter a little in the closing stages.
Gasperini’s team has a solid defense, keeping three clean sheets in their last five Serie A games. At the same time, the team plays quickly, effectively, and purposefully up front. Particularly noteworthy: Atalanta is even more dangerous away from home than they are at home.
Twelve away wins, four or more goals in four of the last seven games on the road – these are absolutely top-class statistics.
Retegui, in particular, is in top form, scoring regularly early in games recently and even netting a hat-trick against his former club in the first leg.
So he should be highly motivated to deliver again in Genoa.
As a long-time fan of the Bergamaschi, I can usually sense pretty accurately when my team is going to deliver – and when it isn’t. In this game, however, there are many indications that disillusionment is more likely to set in. There isn’t much at stake in sporting terms, which often affects the intensity.
Added to this is a thin defensive squad: Djimsiti is suspended, Cuadrado and Kolasinac are injured, and even Toloi is a doubt for the game.
This is a real handicap, especially at the end of the season, and is likely to have a noticeable impact on the stability of the defense. All of this makes me rather skeptical about the upcoming game – despite my fundamental attachment to the team.
If I had to pin myself down to a specific result, I would probably go for a 1-1 draw – although I can also imagine a very tired 0-0.
The safest bet is probably to use the Bwin app and select “Under 2.5 goals” at odds of around 2.00 – preferably in combination with the aforementioned low-scoring draw. This would increase the profit multiplier from an average of 2.0x to 4.5x.
Betting on “1st goal: Genoa” would be anything but a scandal – and with odds of around 2.80, this is an opportunity not to be missed.
After all, the Ligurians have scored the first goal in three of their last four Serie A home games, most recently against the mighty AC Milan in a 1-2 defeat just under ten days ago.
What you shouldn’t miss, by the way, are the ESC winner odds – the big international music festival that is taking place at the same time as this match.
Conclusion: What awaits us is a final game of the season without any sporting pressure – and that is likely to show in both teams. Genoa wants to say goodbye to its home crowd in style, while Atalanta’s motivation is waning.
The visitors’ role as favorites on the betting markets seems exaggerated given the personnel situation: several key players are missing, which could be noticeable against a compact Genoa side.
Instead of brutal efficiency, limited firepower is more likely this time around.
The last two direct encounters were high-scoring, but under the current circumstances, there is much to suggest a balanced game – perhaps even with a slight advantage for the hosts, who appear more stable in terms of personnel and want to go into the summer break on a high note.
My Genoa Atalanta Bergamo tip: DC 1X & under 3.5 goals.
