La Liga, Matchday 36 on Thursday, 15.05.2025 at 21:30
Three more games to go in the Spanish La Liga, then it’s all over. While FC Barcelona are racing towards the title at the top of the table, Athletic Bilbao are focusing on securing fourth place.
The Basques travel to a team that still needs points to secure its place in the league. In my Getafe Athletic Bilbao tip, I’ll tell you why I’m taking a defensive approach and don’t think the home side will win with a maximum of three goals.
There are, of course, several factors behind my betting combination of “double chance X2” and “under 3.5 goals.” I’ll start my analysis with the visitors, as they are well on course for Champions League qualification.
Bilbao have lost only five times this season, which is the best record they share with Barca and Atletico Madrid. 26 goals conceded? That puts the team on track for a record, as no other team in the league can beat that figure.
Offensively, this is nothing new for La Liga connoisseurs, but they often take it easy. The team scores an average of 1.4 goals per game. Well, that’s how it is, and that’s why the classic “under 2.5 goals” bet can no longer be placed.
All bookmakers that offer PayPal payouts are offering odds of 1.40, which is not very profitable. No wonder, if we take a closer look at the latest results.
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1:0, 0:0, 1:0, 0:1, 3:1, 0:0, 0:0, 1:0, 1:1, 0:1 – there was only one outlier. Speaking of outliers, in February Athletic won sensationally 7:1 against Real Valladolid. Had it not been for this result, the goal average would have fallen even further.
There has been a maximum of one goal in 13 games, and in seven (!) of the last eight matches, the bet “under 1.5 goals” would have been correct. So I can understand anyone who wants to take that risk on Thursday.
At Merkur Bets, for example, you can get odds of 2.35. On top of that, there is the Merkur Bets bonus, which gives new customers a free bet of up to 40 euros.
Incidentally, it’s interesting to note that all five defeats were by the narrowest of margins, with the team trailing by just one goal. However, four of the five came away from home. Bilbao have won only six times on the road, with a goal difference of 19:16, giving an average of 2.05 goals per match.
Since mid-January, they have only managed to pick up three points away from home once. I owe you one more incredible fact: only eight of the 26 goals conceded by the Basques came in the first half!
There have been 17 0-0 halftime scores, including eight of the last ten games. If you want to risk this result bet after the first 45 minutes, Betano is offering odds of 2.18.
Bilbao has not lost in nine direct encounters with Getafe. Six of the last seven games ended in a draw. However, only one of the last seven away games has been won.
If you take a look at our online bookmakers, you will see average odds of 2.60 to 3.55 for the visitors. Getafe is not without a chance, as the Madrid side are five points ahead of the relegation zone and are close to securing their place in the league, but it is not yet completely certain.
However, after five defeats in a row, the negative streak must slowly but surely come to an end. A 1-3 defeat was followed by three consecutive 0-1 defeats – a result that would suit Bilbao down to the ground.
The 0-3 defeat against Valencia a few days ago was even worse. So they’ve been 0-1 down ten times already. I inevitably look back at Betano and realize that this result bet is offering odds of 5.90 for Thursday.
With 31 goals, Getafe is one of the most harmless teams in the league, with only bottom-placed Valladolid scoring less often. With four home wins and 14 goals, I probably don’t need to explain that they are far down the home table. The Azulones’ goal average at home is 1.7.
Defend? Gladly. Attack? Only if there’s no other option. Anyone who regularly watches Athletic Bilbao games knows roughly what to expect. The Basques are known for their efficient performances without any frills.
On Thursday, they face FC Getafe, an opponent who tends to play the same style. The Azulones “like” to lose 0-1, and their home games average just over 1.7 goals.
As a result, I’ve found a combination bet that perfectly reflects the strengths and weaknesses of both teams. My tip is:
Bilbao will score a maximum of 3.5 goals!
