Africa Cup of Nations Qualifier Matchday 1, Thursday, 05.09.2024 at 18:00
This will be no easy task for the “Black Stars” to regain their rightful place in the African soccer firmament after embarrassing themselves to the bone in the latest edition of the Africa Cup.
In my Ghana Angola betting tip, I expect a resilient opponent who, not coincidentally, have just won a not insignificant national title. In any case, it will be a tough affair at the Baba Yara Stadium on Thursday
First, let’s take a look together at Ghana, who have been through a disappointing phase recently. They were knocked out of the Africa Cup 2024 in the preliminary round, which was a tough blow.
Two draws and a defeat were simply not enough to progress.
The next test matches were also anything but rosy under the newly appointed ex-Dortmund player Otto Addo after the fiasco: first a 2-1 defeat against Nigeria, then only a 2-2 draw against Uganda.
But then (hopefully) things turned around. In qualifying for the 2026 World Cup, Ghana, or as I also call them, the Black Stars, finally seemed to have got back on track.
Victories over Mali (2:1) and the Central African Republic (4:3) gave them the boost they needed and also put them in an excellent starting position
Of course, this is no guarantee of lasting success, but it shows that they are at least back on the right track.
Ghana have only failed to qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations once since 1992 – and that was in 2004, when the tournament was held in Tunisia.
There’s no doubt about it: given the rather light competition within Group F with Niger and Sudan, failure to advance would automatically and inevitably result in Oddo’s dismissal, I’ll give you my word and seal on that!
On the other hand, we have Angola, who are considered one of the surprises of the 2024 Africa Cup. Although they didn’t knock out any of the top nations there, they still made it to the quarter-finals.
Which is also impressive: Their regional triumph at the recent COSAFA Cup, where they literally swept Namibia off the pitch 5-0 in the final. Such performances currently make the team from Luanda a candidate for bold underdog bets.
However, the bookmakers are trading Ghana as clear favorites, with odds of 1.65 for a win. This means that the mathematical probability of a win for the Black Stars is around 61%.
A draw, on the other hand, is rated at 3.25 – so it is certainly within the realms of possibility, but is considered less likely.
Finally, an Angolan victory in the opener is traded at odds of around 5.25, which corresponds to a rather low probability of occurrence. However, a risky bet on a surprise could be interesting for this very reason.
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The bookmaker not only currently has strong Ghana Angola betting odds on offer, but is also the first bookie ever to offer comprehensive betting odds for all other AFCON qualifying pairings on matchday 1
An interesting betting scenario is certainly the “Double Chance X2” on Angola, which is currently priced at odds of around 2.50.
After all, Angola have only lost 10% of their last 20 international matches, which makes a bet on a win or draw for the visitors extremely attractive in my eyes.
In addition, a bet on “Under 2.5 goals” would also make sense, even at odds of just 1.47.
None of the last four direct duels between these two teams have exceeded the two-goal mark, which points to another rather defensive game.
Especially since the last two international matches between the two sides only took place in March 2023 as part of the Africa Cup qualifiers and are therefore quite relevant in terms of time
The direct comparison speaks in favor of Ghana. Of these four matches, the Black Stars won two and drew two.
Particularly noteworthy: Ghana narrowly won their only home game, in March 2024, 1-0 thanks to a last-minute goal from Antoine Semenyo in the 96th minute, who is also involved this time!
Angola have never won against Ghana, which gives the Black Stars an additional psychological advantage. Nevertheless, the close nature of the game shows that the visitors are at least capable of holding their own
A look at Ghana’s list of nominees reveals a strong offense. With experienced attackers like Jordan Ayew and the dynamic Antoine Semenyo, Ghana definitely have power up front.
Semenyo in particular can make the difference with his pace and finishing ability – it was not for nothing that he decided the last duel against Angola.
The midfield is also solid, especially with players like Mohammed Kudus and Salis Abdul Samed, who are both active in top leagues.
Angola’s squad is quite balanced overall, but the offense in particular stands out. Gelson Dala is a real weapon with 20 goals in 46 international matches, while Depú and Mabululu are also always good for goals.
Angola’s attack definitely has the potential to put opposing defenses under pressure, even if I think the two defenses will dictate the course of the game on Thursday.
In midfield, captain Fredy provides stability with his experience and leadership. Show also brings a lot of momentum to the game with his dynamism.
The defense, meanwhile, looks solid on paper, with experienced players like Bastos and Jonathan Buatu.
Conclusion: My Ghana Angola prediction points to a low-scoring game. With odds of approx. 1.50 on “Under 2.5 goals”, the profit is not huge, but extremely safe.
Why? In the last direct duels just over a year ago, hardly any goals were scored, and I also expect a maximum of 1:0 for Ghana or even a goalless draw in this clash.
Both teams have their strengths defensively, while their offenses are dangerous but not particularly prolific. These conditions make the bet on “Under 2.5 goals ” a solid choice for your bets – little risk, but still profit potential.
