Champions League, Tuesday, 22.10.2024 at 21:00
Playing in the Champions League is something very special for both Girona and Slovan Bratislava. While I think Girona can still make it into the top 24 and qualify for the intermediate round, I expect the Slovakians to be clearly eliminated.
In my opinion, the team has no place in the top flight in terms of quality, and this impression has been confirmed after the first two games, two slaps in the face from Celtic Glasgow and Manchester City. The next defeat can be expected on Tuesday.
In my Girona Slovan Bratislava betting tip at Bet365, I opt for the bet that the hosts will be ahead at half-time and at the final whistle.
Nine goals conceded after two games, no team has let in more balls than Bratislava. In terms of squad value, Bratislava is clearly the weakest of all the participants, with a squad worth 28.8 million euros.
That is not even half the value of penultimate-placed Bern (65 million euros). Girona are valued at 216 million euros and will now face the most grateful opponent in the field at home.
The bookmaker forecast
The odds difference in the 1X2 market is enormous. Girona have been assigned a 1.15 and are therefore the clear favorites, with a successful win bet on the visitors the stake is multiplied by eleven.
The draw is also in the high segment, at 7.50. A 4.50 awaits a successful bet on the “double chance X2”. No odds are interesting for me here. Does the AI see it the same way?
KI prediction Girona vs. Slovan Bratislava: ChatGPT
In fact! The artificial intelligence suggests the draw odds as a high-risk bet. Personally, I don’t like it, even though Girona didn’t come out of the international break well, losing 0:1 to Real Sociedad.
The Girona Slovan Bratislava AI forecast sees moderate risk in the bet that Girona will win the match and both teams will score a goal. I like this variant much more. The odds are also lucrative at 2.60. Bratislava scored against Celtic
In addition, Girona have only managed one of their last eight games without conceding a goal. In general, the artificial intelligence expects a lot of goals. It declares “over 3.5 goals” as a low-risk bet.
I don’t see it that way. I can also imagine an unchallenged 2:0 or 3:0 win for the hosts. The bookmakers see it the same way, writing out odds of around 2.00 for the “Over 3.5 goals”, i.e. a 50/50 bet.
Analysis: Girona vs. Slovan Bratislava
The AI probably doesn’t see too much danger of failure based on the last Champions League results. After all, Girona suffered a spectacular 2:3 against Feyenoord Rotterdam, while Bratislava were rolled over twice.
The opponents of the CL underdogs alone both scored over 3.5 goals. Incidentally, the respective expected goals value of the opponents was also over 3.5. Nevertheless, the “Over 3.5 goals” bet is a bit too hot for me, even if I can imagine the handicap victory overall
I would rather go for the European -1 handicap for the hosts instead of the “Over 3.5 goals” option. At 1.52, the odds at Oddset are significantly lower than the 2.00 for more than three goals, but they also cover a 2:0 or 3:0.
Another, even better suggestion: bet on the X for the -2 and -3 handicap for Girona. This offers odds of 3.90 and 4.75. All results in which Girona wins by exactly two or three goals would be covered.
Odds analysis
The AI has targeted “Over 3.5 goals” as a lower-risk bet. How are the over goals bets for this match in general? In fact, there isn’t even a 1.50 waiting for over 2.5 goals, but is around 1.40 depending on the bookmaker.
For over 1.5 goals, you can be happy if it is above the 1.10 mark. I find the goal of both teams at 1.95 at Happybet the most interesting. Ultimately, however, I expect the visitors to have very little of the game.
Against Celtic and Man City, the Slovakian record champions managed just eleven shots in total. Hoping for an away point, Girona put up much more resistance at Paris SG, only losing with a last-minute goal.
This was followed by a bitter home defeat against Rotterdam. The defense let too much slip
Girona vs. Slovan Bratislava odds: Girona experience difficult fall
Slovan Bratislava can draw hope from the fact that Girona have not been able to draw the very big portion of self-confidence in recent months. After all, the third-placed team in the last La Liga season has only won one match since September 1.
A 2:1 win against Bilbao was their only victory directly before the international break. In addition, only Rayo Vallecano kept a clean sheet in this period, not an easy situation for head coach Michel, who has been in the head chair since 2021.
Bratislava lack practice against big caliber
The weak autumn makes a still useful odds for the Girona lead at half-time and at the final whistle at Bet365, where you can also pick up a first-class new customer bonus. If Girona had played better, the odds would have been lower.
But despite the misery, I expect a clear-cut affair against the Slovakian capital. The Belasi are clearly the weakest opponents on paper compared to Girona’s rivals in recent weeks.
There’s another important point: Girona are used to facing a tough opponent almost every week in La Liga, while Bratislava don’t have that rhythm against strong opponents.
Nine of the twelve teams in the Slovakian league have a market value in the single-digit million range. Girona’s market value is more than double that of the entire championship.
However, Viktor Tsygangkov will not be able to help with the mission to collect the first points. The Ukrainian will miss out for the home side due to thigh problems.
In general, I’m curious to see which formation Michel will field. I’m expecting a 4-2-3-1, but we’ve also seen a 4-3-3, 4-4-2 and recently even a back five.
We should also expect a 4-2-3-1 from the Champions League qualifiers, who have survived four rounds against Struga, Celje, Apoel Nicosia and Midtjylland.
My Girona Slovan Bratislava tip:
In the domestic league, Slovan have won eight of ten matches and only lost once. In the Champions League, however, things are very different. 1:9 goal difference, zero points and total inferiority.
Although Girona have only won one match since the beginning of September, they have a lot more to offer in terms of play and personnel than the visitors, who do not face top-class footballing teams on a weekly basis.
Girona played a strong match against Rotterdam recently, but didn’t take enough of their own opportunities and weakened at the back. I expect much more on Tuesday. I expect the home side to press from the start. The first goal shouldn’t be long in coming.
My Girona Slovan Bratislava prediction: Half time/final score: Girona/Girona.
