Gladbach – Freiburg Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 6 on Sunday, 10/05/2025 at 7:30 p.m.
In my Gladbach Freiburg tip, I’m siding with the visitors and using the generous odds offered by German betting providers as a springboard.
Gladbach has shown signs of life again with a 1-1 draw against Werkself and a 4-6 win against Eintracht, no question.
Nevertheless, the fact remains that nothing was done in the transfer window – and the injury woes under interim coach Eugen Polanski are increasing!
Five players are missing from the hosts’ already thin squad. After seven games, the Foals are already at the bottom of the table with just two points.
All reasons for me to side with the Breisgauers on my betting slip.
And as if Gladbach’s various problems weren’t enough, there’s also the unpleasant head-to-head record.
Mönchengladbach has not won any of its last eight Bundesliga matches against SCF (4 draws, 4 losses) – the longest run ever against the Breisgauers.
Freiburg has even celebrated three wins in a row recently, which is the longest winning streak for any team in this Bundesliga pairing.
Gladbach – Freiburg Prediction & Betting
Gladbach has shown significant weaknesses in defense. In the Bundesliga, the team concedes an average of 2.4 goals per game – only Bremen and Frankfurt have a worse record.
A weak defense combined with an attack that seems to have picked up speed recently makes the “Both teams to score – Yes” bet particularly interesting here.
This selection paid off in four of Freiburg’s five league games, with the matches averaging 3.6 goals. Consequently, I am also enthusiastic about the Over 2.5 goals bet at odds of around 1.78.
What you need to consider when betting on Gladbach vs. Freiburg
- Gladbach leads the Bundesliga in expected goals from set pieces (3.22xG) after five games, scoring four goals.
- Freiburg has only 15 shots on goal (only Mainz has fewer), but with 0.12xG per shot, it has the fourth-best ratio in the league.
- Gladbach is listed as the fourth most likely team to be relegated ahead of matchday six with odds of 4.00, with only Heidenheim (1.61), Augsburg (2.75), and St. Pauli (3.25) ahead of them.
- Joe Scally has collected three yellow cards in 355 minutes – 0.75 cards per 90. Only Joel Schmied (0.90) and Rayan Phillipe (0.77) have more.
Gladbach – Freiburg: AI tip & odds analysis
Our Gladbach Freiburg AI prediction seems to want to take a slightly more aggressive approach than I do and comes straight out with some result bets.
However, the one that our digital betting friend thinks is most likely to happen is also the one that appeals to me the most.
Without further ado, here is the predicted result: a 1-2 win for the sports club, which, after registering with Bet365, is linked to an attractive profit multiplier of 11x on average as a tip with the aforementioned bookmaker!
Most goals in the second half, on the other hand, seems to be a sure-fire tip from a purely statistical point of view, with Gladbach Freiburg odds of around 1.90, as determined by our AI.
Hold on to your hats: Only Mönchengladbach has not scored a goal before halftime in this Bundesliga season – all five goals were scored after the half-time whistle.
Interestingly, SC Freiburg scored 78% of their goals this season after the break (7 out of 9), the second-highest percentage after Gladbach (100%).
The best odds for Gladbach vs. Freiburg
Gladbach welcomes Freiburg – a game that promises excitement, pace, and tactical finesse.
Once again, Interwetten, Winamax, and Bet365 stand out as the best betting partners with the best odds: 2.35 for a home win for the Foals, 3.55 for a draw, and 3.00 if Freiburg scores away.
Gladbach can rely on home advantage and creative offensive play, while Freiburg counters with counterattacking strength and compactness.
Gladbach vs Freiburg Match Analysis:
Gladbach may be the home favorites going into the game, but it could be a really open game in which neither team necessarily sees its strength in ball control.
Both teams have less than 50% possession in this Bundesliga season.
Eugen Polanski’s team is slightly better positioned to keep the ball thanks to a higher defensive line.
However, Gladbach’s offensive play is very direct, so long build-up phases from the back are unlikely. The Foals have had 75 shots in the league so far – fourth place – and need to improve their conversion rate to be successful.
Despite having 17 fewer shots, Freiburg has scored four more goals, 39.7% of which came from set pieces (two goals). Once again, set pieces could be the deciding factor.
Although Freiburg had fewer attempts on goal than Gladbach overall, their xG value, which is 1.88 higher, indicates a significantly higher quality in terms of the chances they created.
Gladbach form check
Gladbach has struggled to find its rhythm since the start of the season. Weak transfer activity and internal management problems have brought the Foals to the bottom of the table.
Most recently, sporting director Roland Virkus was dismissed, further exacerbating the instability. The upcoming match against Freiburg could also decide the future of interim coach Eugen Polanski.
The statistics also reflect the problems. Gladbach averages only 1.0 goals per game, with the four goals against Frankfurt being an exception.
With an expected goal value (xG) of only 6.9 after five games, the low quality of their finishing is clear.
The team averages 5.6 shots on goal per game—not a bad record—but few of these attempts result in goals.
With key players out and no short-term solutions in management, Gladbach is expected to continue its losing streak at least until the international break.
Freiburg Form check
Freiburg had a bumpy start to the season, with defeats against underdogs Augsburg and 1. FC Köln. While Julian Schuster’s team was clearly inferior against Köln, it statistically dominated the game against Augsburg and should have won.
Nevertheless, the Breisgau Brazilians are back on track and have been unbeaten for five games.
The underlying data is also solid: Freiburg scores an average of 1.8 goals per game and, with 8.8 expected goals (xG), has the fifth-best value in the league.
It is striking, however, that Freiburg only manages 3.6 shots on goal per game – the lowest in the league – but still scores more goals than many other teams.
Things are also going well internationally: after a win against Basel in the first round of the Europa League, Freiburg held Bologna to a draw.
After a weaker first half and conceding a goal, they fought back and scored a goal in the second half with an xG value of 1.57.
Just before the upcoming international break, this game offers the club a good opportunity to pick up some valuable points!
