Miami Masters, 2nd round, Friday, 21.03.2025, 16:00
Carlos Alcaraz failed to defend his title again in Indian Wells. The Spaniard was eliminated in the quarter-finals and lost a few points in the world rankings as a result. Now it’s off to Florida from California!
There, the current number three in the world will face David Goffin at the start. The odds already say it all, victory is only a question of how high the stakes are and I assume that we won’t be in for too long a match. For under 19.5 games we get tasty odds at Tipwin!
Alcaraz already won the Masters in Miami in 2022. One year later, he made it to the semi-finals and in 2024 he was eliminated in the last eight. If the trend continues, he will have to bow out in the round of 16 in 2025.
But I very much doubt that. Last week, he lost a close match to Jack Draper, who ultimately secured his first Masters title of the year and his first ever. Alcaraz is considered by the bookmakers to be the hottest ticket for the second 1000 in 2025.
Winamax still assigns him odds of 2.75, followed by Novak Djokovic at 8.00. Alexander Zverev (11. 0), the number one seed, is only regarded as a third force here alongside Draper due to his poor form.
We don’t get lucrative odds for Alcaraz’s opening match, neither for the easy win (1.04) nor for the outright 2:0 (1.20). The latter is at best suitable as a combination ticket option. I therefore took a closer look at the other over-under markets.
It’s clear to me that Alcaraz will come through without losing a set in this duel and I don’t think it will remain a break in one of the sets. For under 19.5 games we get strong 1.55 odds at Tipwin.
Tipwin is one of the few providers who still have this market in their repertoire. If you are not yet registered with the official partner of Bayer Leverkusen, you can also claim a sports betting bonus of 100 euros.
If you dare to bet on even fewer games, you can look forward to even higher odds. However, the risk is too high for me. Because Alcaraz has his wild phases in games with poor saves, which could force him to stay on the pitch longer in the end.
His opponent is a well-known name. After all, Goffin once belonged to the top 10 in the world rankings. But apart from an interim high last fall, he is far from his best years in terms of his game. He will have a tough time against Alcaraz in the rallies.
And as the Belgian is not one of the top servers, he will have huge problems against the defensively outstanding man from El Palmar. Technically, Goffin is really strong, but he lacks the power to be a threat to Alcaraz
In addition, the world number three is much quicker on the court. The direct duel is only 2:1, but the Spaniard was still in his teens in two of the three matches, defeating Goffin 6-3, 6-3 in the first. The Belgian then returned the favor in Astana in 2022.
The two players last met on clay in Nice. Alcaraz decided the match in the super tiebreak of the Hopman Cup. While Alcaraz has already won a tournament in Rotterdam and had a good year overall, but not a very good one, Goffin usually had to call it a day early on.
He had lost his first match in five of his eight tournament appearances. Against Aleksandar Vukic, he at least managed to get through the first round in Miami – as he did in Indian Wells. He also scored a respectable success in Acapulco when he took Ben Shelton out of the field.
My Goffin Alcaraz tip
In the Goffin Alcaraz matchup, I see the world number 55, who is 13 years older, at a clear disadvantage. Alcaraz will exert a lot of pressure with his strong forehand on the return and at the same time get through his service games more easily.
Last week he failed against Draper, who plays with a lot of speed. Goffin is not known for that, as he likes to build up a point over a longer rally and well-distributed balls. That won’t be enough against Alcaraz.
Whether short or fast points, Alcaraz has a clear advantage here and that will be evident over two, probably not long, sets. Incidentally, you can also top up your credit quickly and easily via PayPal at Tipwin.
My Goffin Alcaraz tip: Under 19.5 games
