Shanghai Masters, Round of 16, Wednesday, 09.10.2024, 2:00 pm
David Goffin against Alexander Zverev, take nine! The score is 4-4 in their direct duel. The stars last faced each other at the French Open, a clear victory for the Hamburg-born player, whom I see as the clear favorite again this time.
All the more reason for me to be happy that I still get a strong 1.52 odds for the direct 2-0 victory at NEO.bet, my Goffin Zverev tip for the round of 16 at the Shanghai Masters!
Griekspoor against Zverev, it could only be an exciting game and it was once again. After three sets and two tiebreaks, the German came out on top once again, and as in all the other Masters tournaments this year, he has at least reached the round of 16.
A nice statistic for Zverev, who has played many tournaments in 2020 and has not come out of it unscathed due to illness and injury. At Wimbledon, he was practically playing on one leg, and most recently, pneumonia slowed him down.
His condition was even better against the brave Dutchman than it was against Mattia Bellucci at the start. That was bitterly necessary against the man who almost took him out of the field with a 5-2 lead in the fifth set of the third round of the French Open.
Now Goffin is waiting, who is not so easy to assess. He has not played at his world-class level since he was still in the top 10 for years. But he is getting closer and closer to his old game.
His form is also clearly improving. On grass, he won the Challenger tournament in Ikley, and he impressed on hard courts in Cary and Winston-Salem. He also reached the third round at the US Open, but was then knocked out by Tomas Machac without a chance.
He only returned to action in Shanghai and has done so brilliantly so far, showing great mental strength. Both Lorenzo Musetti and Marcos Giron were unable to beat the resilient Goffin after winning the first set 6-1.
Zverev has been warned, but at the same time, the fast hard court presents a completely different challenge for the 33-year-old. This is also reflected in the odds of our top betting providers. Zverev’s win rate is just above 1.10, Goffin has a 5.25.
With a reasonably good first serve rate, Zverev should have no difficulty in getting his service games through. Incidentally, he was already in the final here in 2019, losing to his long-time rival Daniil Medvedev in the end.
In the first two rounds, he only had a weak phase in the second set against Griekspoor, when he lost the game after conceding a triple break. It was the only time he has ever lost service games.
Goffin is not considered an ace at serving, having already lost eight service games, although he has also completed one more game. Nevertheless, he was already susceptible to breaks against Musetti and Giron. His opponents won 43 and 38 percent of the points on his service.
At the latest in the tiebreak, this difference in quality should become apparent, and then there is the fact that Zverev has more to offer on hard court than Giron and a currently inconsistent Musetti in the return game.
Zverev served precise balls and at a decent pace against Griekspoor. Zverev will get to the break point area quite quickly. In addition, Goffin has had to play two long matches in the last two days, which will definitely have an impact on his freshness. Zverev also played on Tuesday, but had a long break before that.
I’m not deterred by the fact that the series is tied at 2-2 and that Goffin has won the first two meetings on hard courts. The matches were held in 2014 and 2018. In the first duel, Zverev was just 17 years old and Goffin was still at a significantly higher level.
In 2018, Zverev was not yet where he is now either, but the Belgian’s tennis skills had diminished. In 2024, a match took place in Paris, Zverev won clearly in three sets, not allowing a single break on clay.
My Goffin Zverev Tip
If Zverev stays active and, as usual, has a good first serve rate, it will be a grueling Wednesday for Goffin, who had to play two three-set matches on Monday and Tuesday.
From the penultimate match in Rome, I still remember exactly that the Belgian can be dangerous against Zverev when he positions himself too far back and acts defensively. A good match plan is the basis for success against a player who is gradually approaching his old form.
The fast conditions in Shanghai suit the 1.98-meter-tall world number three. Zverev’s return game should not be underestimated either. Goffin often had problems getting through his service games against Giron and Musetti. I see that as the key difference on this day of the last 16.
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My Goffin Zverev betting tip: 2:0 for Zverev
