Heidenheim – Bayern Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 15 on Sunday, 21.12.2025 at 17:30 CET
Even though only the 15th matchday of the Bundesliga is on the agenda, FC Bayern can already look back on an almost perfect first half of the season on the last German football weekend of the year.
Although two draws have crept into the previously flawless record in recent weeks, there are no longer any serious doubts about defending the title – which is especially due to the record-collecting offense.
Regardless of the recent setback against Mainz, a football bet early on Sunday evening can only revolve around a clear victory for the record champions, which is then also reflected in my Heidenheim Bayern prediction.
Although the Brenz city team has recently regularly scored points, especially in the home arena, due to the clear difference in performance, the hosts are degraded from the big favorite to an amazed onlooker at the end.
This expectation is also shared by the German bookmakers, who cannot imagine any other winner than FC Bayern.
A defeat for the Munich team is probably out of the question here anyway, after all, Vincent Kompany’s team is on the verge of completing an entire calendar year without a single away defeat in the Bundesliga for only the third time ever.
The Heidenheimers will therefore spend the short winter break in a direct relegation place, for better or worse, but this can still be corrected in 2026 in the last two games of the first half of the season against the much lighter competitors from Cologne and Mainz.
Heidenheim – Bayern Prediction & Betting
I have already taken into account the fact that a simple 1×2 bet on Bayern does not seem to be particularly lucrative here for obvious reasons with my generously sized handicap bet.
In addition, over-betting seems quite interesting to me here, after all, each of the five previous direct competitive duels got to see at least four goals thanks to Heidenheim playing cheerfully.
Since four comparisons even cracked the mark of five goals, I will go directly to the Over 4.5 goals here – and in the event of success, I will receive odds of around 2.40 from bookmakers without taxes.
Once again, the bet on at least three Bayern goals is a little less risky, but with which you can only earn just under 1.5 times the stake.
What you need to consider when betting on Heidenheim vs. Bayern
- 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up points in just one of their four Bundesliga games against FC Bayern Munich – a 3-2 home win in April 2024. FC Bayern have scored more goals per game against Heidenheim (3.5) than against any other current Bundesliga team, but have also conceded more goals per game (1.75) than against any other team.
- 1. FC Heidenheim have lost only one of their last five Bundesliga home games (W2 D2), namely a 3-0 defeat against Borussia Mönchengladbach on Matchday 11. In these five Bundesliga home games, Heidenheim picked up eight points, the same number as in the previous 18 Bundesliga home games combined.
- FC Bayern Munich have picked up 38 points in their first 14 Bundesliga games this season – only FC Bayern themselves have picked up more points in the first 14 league games in the 2015/16 season (40). FC Bayern have not lost any of their 15 BL away games in 2024 (W11 D4).
- FC Bayern Munich have the best attack in the Bundesliga this season with 51 goals scored (a league record after 14 games), while 1. FC Heidenheim scored the fewest goals (13, tied with Mainz and St. Pauli).
Heidenheim – Bavaria: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Who would have thought it: When it comes to the presumed winner of Sunday’s game, our in-house artificial intelligence and I are of the same opinion for once – the expectation of a sovereign performance by the Munich team is also shared by the Heidenheim Bayern AI tip.
The forecast here is that FCB is already ahead at half-time. However, the half-time/full-time bet 2/2 with odds of 1.33 is probably only a case for combination tipsters.
The situation is different with the forecast that (at least) two goals will be scored in the first half. If it gets down to business right from the start, this would be good for an odds of 1.70 that are more than worth considering.
The other AI forecasts then focus on a defensive performance by Heidenheim, at odds of around 1.90 goals from both teams are finally recommended here.
A real risk tip is the assumption that the host will also score at least twice – odds of 4.90. Of course, such a bet is not for the faint of heart. On the other hand, the Brenz city team has actually cracked this mark in four of the five previous duels.
In April 2024, for example, three goals were scored in their only win against Bayern to date (3-2), while in the cup duel in 2019, not even four goals were enough to crush the Munich team (4-5).
The best odds for Heidenheim vs. Bayern
The Heidenheim Bayern odds on the classic three-way bet are actually only interesting for those tipsters who can imagine that FCB will now also help the next cellar child after the 2-2 draw against Mainz.
On the other hand, even the most die-hard Bayern fans are likely to keep their hands off favourites odds of just over 1.1 due to the manageable payout.
Of course, things look completely different when it comes to Munich’s third draw of the current Bundesliga season on Sunday. After the draw rate of 9.00, you can lick your fingers well-groomed.
Even Bayern Heidenheim odds close to 20.0 are possible at the end if the big outsider actually repeats the feat from the season before last – and sends FC home without any points as a result of a home win.
Heidenheim vs Bayern Match Analysis:
FC Bayern go into this game with a comfortable lead, but FCB will be looking to go into the winter break unbeaten, so Vincent Kompany’s side can expect a professional performance.
FC Bayern are used to having the upper hand, and this game will be no exception. Kompany’s team leads the Bundesliga in terms of pitch pitch, a metric that measures territorial dominance.
Heidenheim, on the other hand, is in third last place in the league in terms of pitch inclination.
Vincent Kompany’s team also acts deadly when they are in possession of the ball in the front areas. They have an average of 19.5 shots on goal per league game and face a team from Heidenheim that has conceded the third most shots on goal in the league, so the omens are not good for the home side here.
FC Bayern Munich are the club with the biggest xG overperformance (expected goals) in the German Bundesliga, but last weekend against Mainz they were very wasteful with seven missed big chances.
Heidenheim must hope that Kompany’s team will play so lavishly again to secure at least a small chance of a positive result.
With Bayern set to dominate possession, counter-attacks and the resulting set-pieces give Heidenheim a rare chance to score. 70% of the goals Bayern have conceded in the Bundesliga have come from such situations.
The hosts have also scored five goals from set-pieces, so this can indeed pose a threat here. However, Bayern has the necessary offensive power to trump the opponent overall.
Heidenheim Form Check
Heidenheim goes into the race on the last matchday before the winter break of the Bundesliga in one of the direct relegation places and is behind St. Pauli, which has been in the relegation place since the victory in the direct duel, due to goal difference.
Last week, Heidenheim could not take advantage of the red card for Eric Smith in the first half and conceded the 0:2 against St. Pauli shortly after the half-time break (final score 1:2).
After two wins in a row, Frank Schmidt’s team is back in the relegation zone after last weekend’s defeat.
In this calendar year, Heidenheim has only achieved eight wins in 33 games and scored only 32 goals. The home record is not very convincing with only four wins from 27 home games in all competitions.
However, Heidenheim have lost only once in their last five Bundesliga games at home, 3-0 against Borussia Mönchengladbach on Matchday 11.
In the last five Bundesliga home games, the Brenz city team have collected as many points (8 points) as in the previous 18 home games combined (8 points, 2 wins, 2 draws, 14 defeats).
Heidenheim shares the record for the weakest offense in the Bundesliga with Mainz and St. Pauli, as the teams have scored only 13 goals each. In the last 17 Bundesliga games, FCH have conceded at least one goal in every game.
Bayern Form Check
Bayern Munich’s recent form has seen a slight decline, marked by a defeat to Arsenal in the UEFA Champions League and two draws in their last five Bundesliga games.
Nevertheless, the Munich team is still nine points ahead of Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund at the top of the Bundesliga table and has 12 wins and two draws this season.
Despite the draw against Mainz, Bayern have made their second-best start to the season ever with 38 points from 14 matchdays and are only two points behind their record from the 2015/16 season.
Last weekend, Bayern drew 2-2 against bottom-of-the-table Mainz at the Allianz Arena and needed a late penalty from Harry Kane to save at least a point. In the game against Mainz, Bayern set a Bundesliga record with 85% possession, the highest figure since detailed data collection began in 2004/05.
Bayern have collected 21 more points than any other team since January 2025 and are the first Bundesliga team to spend an entire calendar year at the top of the table. Bayern are unbeaten in 23 consecutive Bundesliga games and have scored two or more goals in 22 of those games.
Bayern are unbeaten in 15 Bundesliga games away in 2025, with 11 wins and four draws, and could end a calendar year without losing away for the third time.
With 51 goals from 14 games (an average of 3.64 goals per game), Bayern have the best offense in the league this season.
Bayern’s Harry Kane has been involved in 99 goals (80 goals, 19 assists) in 77 Bundesliga games and is on the verge of breaking the 100-goal barrier this weekend, setting a new record since data collection began.
