Bundesliga Relegation, First Leg, Thursday, 05/22/2025 at 8:30 p.m.
Detention, please! 1. FC Heidenheim, which hosted a huge European Cup party just a year ago, finished its difficult second season after promotion in 16th place.
Their opponents could provide a real football fairy tale, as hardly anyone expected them to finish third. So there is room for plenty of emotion, surprises, and statistics in my Heidenheim vs. Elversberg prediction. My betting recommendation for you is rather cautious.
The reason: The Bundesliga team is usually superior in the relegation play-offs, but not necessarily in the first leg. In addition, both sides are under enormous pressure. I have therefore opted for the “Double Chance 1X” with a maximum of four goals – this fits the home team’s offense and the visitors’ away defense.
FCH already had a taste of relegation in 2020, while Elversberg has never played in this “competition” before. What does this information mean for tonight? Probably not much, because as we all know, anything can happen in knockout games.
I’m now going to take a detailed look at both teams, as they have plenty of strengths and weaknesses. And since one side has everything to lose and the other has everything to gain, I wouldn’t be surprised if this first match doesn’t give us any indication of how the tie will pan out.
The bookmakers’ prediction for Heidenheim – Elversberg
A favorite? There isn’t one before the first leg! A look at the PayPal bookmakers reveals odds of 1.85 to 1.90 for Heidenheim to advance.
In terms of a win on Thursday, the home side are slightly better off with an average of 2.20. However, the visitors from Elversberg know that a win would by no means be a sensation at odds of 3.20.
The last time there was a draw in the first leg of the relegation play-offs was in 2020 – with FCH involved. If there is no winner this time either, the odds will be 3.60.
AI prediction Heidenheim vs Elversberg: ChatGPT’s prediction
This relegation battle should also be very exciting for ChatGPT. Can the AI already combine all the important data and facts, including relegation history, to make strong bets? Yes and no, in my opinion.
The result bet is 1-0. Since the beginning of January, Heidenheim has won only one home game, and that was against relegated Kiel. So I wouldn’t necessarily go for a win here, but rather a draw.
How many goals will be scored? FCH is relatively harmless, especially at home. Elversberg is known for putting on a great show in its own stadium, but concedes very few goals away from home. What I’m trying to say is that I support the AI’s suggestion of “under 2.5 goals.”
If you want to place a less risky bet, the AI suggests the classic “both teams to score.” Interestingly, this hasn’t happened in five relegation first legs. Accordingly, I would be somewhat cautious here.
Analysis: Heidenheim vs Elversberg
It was the absolute minimum goal, and yet the position is disappointing. 1. FC Heidenheim, which sensationally qualified for the Conference League in 2024, must now fight for survival in the relegation play-offs.
Between October and March, with 11 defeats in 14 games, it even looked as if they would be relegated directly to League 2. Things slowly improved in March, with the club ultimately finishing ahead of Bochum and Kiel.
After picking up seven points from three games, including three clean sheets (1-0 against Stuttgart, 0-0 against Bochum, and 3-0 against Union Berlin), the season ended on a sour note with a 4-1 defeat to Bremen.
With rival Hoffenheim losing 4-0 to Bayern at the same time, there was still a chance of avoiding relegation. However, the defeat came as no surprise to some, as the team’s home form has been poor for a long time.
Since the beginning of January, the only home win has been against Kiel, leaving FCH bottom of the home table. Twelve defeats? No one can offer more. 13 goals? Only FC St. Pauli can beat that.
Five home defeats saw them trailing by at least three goals, and they failed to score on ten occasions. The team scored only five times in the first half and went into the break trailing nine times.
Odds analysis
It’s not easy to predict the outcome of this relegation match. Since Heidenheim has only scored one goal in its last seven matches, I’m leaning towards a 0-0 draw at halftime. You can get odds of 2.85 for this at Winamax.
At the same time, Elversberg has conceded only twelve goals in the first half in 34 matches. So you can minimize the risk a little and say: Heidenheim won’t score before the break, with odds of 1.80.
I’m leaning towards a 1-1 result – this would combine offensive weakness and defensive strength away from home. The odds of 7.20 are definitely worth it.
Heidenheim vs. Elversberg: Don’t take any risks!
What could be important from Heidenheim’s point of view: Patrick Mainka, Benedikt Gimber, Luca Kerber, and Tom Siersleben are four very important players with four and nine yellow cards respectively.
If they receive a yellow card on Thursday, they will be suspended for the second leg. Recent years have shown how important a second leg is in the relegation play-offs. In 13 out of 16 cases, which is good news for FCH, the first division team emerged victorious.
But what if you draw 0-0 away and get a 2-2 draw at home? In 2020, that was unfortunately synonymous with elimination, and Heidenheim’s only relegation experience against Bremen did not end well.
0-3, 3-0, 0-1, 0-1, 2-2? The last first-leg results show that if the Swabians don’t win the first match against Elversberg, all is not lost; many Bundesliga clubs have only secured their place in the second leg in recent years.
Elversberg believes in its chances
Incidentally, Heidenheim has not had much to do with SV Elversberg in the past. The two sides crossed paths in the relegation play-offs in the 2013/14 season, with the results of 1:0 and 1:1 going in FCH’s favor.
Of course, coach Frank Schmidt was already on the sidelines back then. He is likely to have followed SV Elversberg’s progress closely, having written his own sensational story in Heidenheim.
SVE only got promoted to the 3rd division in 2022, and now they’re on the verge of a huge upset. Just one point and a few goals would have been enough for the team to get promoted directly!
With 37 goals conceded, I’ll start my analysis with the positives: Elversberg has the best defense in the league. Interestingly, conceding 25 goals at home is anything but impressive, but the defense has only been breached twelve times away from home.
In their own stadium, the average number of goals conceded per game is 3.8, while away from home this figure drops to 2.2! What a huge difference, although I have to point out that:
2:1 at Schalke, 3:1 in Nuremberg, 1:1 against Paderborn and 3:1 at Hannover 96 – the last four away games have raised the average again slightly. Since the end of January, the team has lost only once, and away from home there has been only one defeat since the beginning of November.
2:3 in Karlsruhe and 0:1 in Regensburg? Two of the three away defeats came in the south, which is not a good omen for the trip to the Swabian Alb.
In Fisnik Asllani, SVE can rely on a striker who has struck fear into the hearts of opposing defenses this season. He has scored six goals and provided three assists in the last six games.
With 18 goals and eight assists, anyone who thinks he’ll score on Thursday shouldn’t miss out on Betano’s odds of 2.87.
My Heidenheim Elversberg tip:
Everyone in Saarland is holding their breath: Can SV Elversberg really make it to the Bundesliga? On the one hand, the players can go into the relegation play-offs without any pressure, but on the other hand, nerves are likely to be high.
I have already praised the visitors’ defense, and the fact that Heidenheim are rather harmless in attack fits in perfectly with this. As the first legs have been less successful for the Bundesliga club in recent years, I am against a home win.
However, I still think that the Swabians can avoid defeat. After all, the last few weeks haven’t been that bad. Adding offensive and defensive facts, I come up with the following tip:
Heidenheim will not lose with under 4.5 goals!
