Bundesliga 4th matchday, Saturday, 09/21/2024 at 3:30 pm
What about the rivalry when I devote myself to my Heidenheim Freiburg prediction? After all, FCH has not been part of the big league for long.
And yet, it has long since arrived in the top flight. So well established, in fact, that the Swabians regularly start games as favorites, especially when they are at home. For the home game against Freiburg, I’m betting on the often safe bet of “both teams scoring”.
The Heidenheim Freiburg odds look extremely interesting at first glance. This means that they are even approaching some bookies, with the sports club slightly ahead with values of 2.55 to 2.65.
Both teams go into the game with six points and have conceded defeats to the absolute top clubs. Or as it could also be formulated: two clubs meet here that should meet at eye level.
My Heidenheim Freiburg prediction will now provide you with all the important facts and statistics you need to follow my betting recommendation. I think both teams will score this time!
The betting providers’ prediction?
What about matches in which there is virtually no favorite? You could of course think that a draw is highly likely. At 3.35, the odds for a draw have actually been rated a bit below average this time.
Freiburg are favorites by a narrow margin, with odds of 2.55 on average. This is a rather bold tip, as the Breisgauer only managed to collect one point in this duel last season.
On the other hand, we already know the Heidenheim team as a strong home side that does not shy away from actually stronger opponents. Therefore, it might be advisable for one or the other to take advantage of the win odds of 2.65.
KI prediction Heidenheim vs Freiburg: That’s what Chat GPT
In addition to my own ideas and tips, I also took a look at ChatGPT’s recommendations for this game, again querying high, medium and low risk. I start with the high-risk selection, which predicts a home win with both teams scoring.
In my opinion, that’s not unrealistic, because FCH is strong at home, but also let in four goals against BVB. Freiburg is also not always so dominant away from home. So if you are looking for a bet with odds in the 4 range, go for it here.
We are in medium risk if we take a trip into Asian betting. The AI suggests a Freiburg win with a -0.5 HC. This means that the SCF is deducted a “half hit”. So if the SCF wins, the bet is won. My opinion on this: it could work, but I actually have FCH on the slip of paper.
The AI suspects the low risk in the bet “Over 2.5 goals”. I fully agree here. 4:0 against Augsburg and 4:2 against Dortmund, only the last two games of Heidenheim topped this value slightly.
Heidenheim in the 1st Bundesliga? This will surely only be a short visit! Admittedly, not a few thought so about the newcomer a year ago. But the Swabians showed everyone.
In the end, they finished in eighth place, which was even enough to qualify for the Conference League in 2023/24. And although Heidenheim lost their two best players, Tim Kleindienst and Jan-Niklas Beste, they advanced to the group stage.
Now coach Frank Schmidt’s team has to manage the balancing act between the Bundesliga and the European Cup. Despite the recent 2-4 defeat to Dortmund, the start to the league season can be considered a success.
First they won 1-0 at St. Pauli, then the Swabians followed that up with a 4-0 win against Augsburg. They ultimately held their own against BVB for a long time, only conceding the fourth goal in injury time.
Odds analysis
Since FCH is playing at home and Freiburg has fallen behind in all three games, I can confidently go for the Heidenheim lead bet. In the Betano app, the odds of this tip jump to 1.90.
At the same time, I could imagine that, as with Heidenheim last in Dortmund, it will be a tough game from the start. If the “both teams score” is already true after the first 45 minutes, that would be rewarded with odds of 3.60.
An outcome bet is also suitable for this derby. I believe in a very entertaining match. Since all previous duels were very close, I could imagine a nice 2:2. The odds: an average 11.5.
Heidenheim vs. Freiburg: Who wants to make the game?
The six points are not bad, but since FCH only gets an average of 38% possession of the ball, it is also clear that Heidenheim is more likely to go on the counter and is reluctant to take control of the game.
But: SC Freiburg’s value also only just exceeds 39%. For Saturday, someone will ultimately have to have 50% or more on the credit side. Incidentally, Heidenheim had a lot to laugh about against SCF last season.
3:2 at home and 1:1 away, as a promoted team they took four points from their opponent. Interesting fact: Both times, Heidenheim conceded the 0-1, but Freiburg is more known for conceding goals this season.
How stable is the sports club?
Incidentally, in the entire last season, there were only two games in the Voith Arena in which the home side could not score. One of them was against Dortmund, the other against Bochum.
Maximilian Breuning, a new signing from Freiburg, has attracted attention with five goals in competitive games. How many shots on target did he have? Five, and every single one of them was on target!
If you want to secure the Betano bonus, you can bet on another Breuning goal here. Your risk here will be rewarded with odds of 3.10. Will the Freiburgers be able to get a grip on their former striker?
It’s the first season without Christian Streich, so it’s already a very special one. Under Julian Schuster, the team seems to be determined to be just as successful.
After the 3-1 opening win against VfB Stuttgart, they lost 0-2 at FC Bayern, but the team from Baden hit back immediately with a 2-1 win against Bochum. As I mentioned, the common factor in these results is that there was always a 0-1 deficit to start with.
So twice now, the team has come from behind to get the three points, and word has got around about that. The last season ended with five games without a win, and it’s not for nothing that the team only came in tenth.
In terms of personnel, however, there is some bad news that will certainly hurt the Freiburgers. Merlin Röhl has suffered a fracture in his ankle and will only be able to watch in the next few months.
This is unfortunate, as another key player, Michael Gregoritsch, is also out of action. The team is a little weakened in terms of replacements and will have to somehow compensate for the absences against Heidenheim.
My Heidenheim Freiburg tip:
1. FC Heidenheim really let it rip at the start of the season. Goals are truly not uncommon in the Baden-Württemberg team’s games.
And since Freiburg have not made a particularly stable impression so far either, there is a high probability that the southern derby will be a goal-rich one.
My Heidenheim Freiburg prediction is therefore: Both teams score!
