Bundesliga 26th matchday, Sunday, 3/16/2025 at 5:30 PM
Curtain up for the basement thriller in the Bundesliga! The 17th meets the 18th. With nine games to go, only the three points count. Therefore, we can expect a really tough fight in which both teams will play to win.
That makes it easy for me to pick the odds in my Heidenheim Kiel betting tip. Because for the goal of both teams as a single odds, we get 1.65 odds at Betano. This is because the two worst defenses will face each other here on Sunday.
Heidenheim has conceded 51 and Kiel as many as 61 goals, the bottom teams in the Bundesliga table exceed the average of 2.0 goals conceded per game. Will they now score each other’s goals?
Quite possible, I can’t imagine a dirty 1-0. That doesn’t fit with the DNA of the storks, who try to prevail against every opponent with an offensive approach. Among other things, they even scored three goals in the Allianz Arena.
The betting providers’ forecast
However, it is the hosts who our top betting providers see as the favorites, with odds around 2.00. Kiel starts at 3.65 for Sunday’s game, with the 3.55 for the draw being set just below that.
An assessment that I don’t agree with. I would have expected something in the range of 2.65 to 2.65 here, because for me this matchup is really even. But all the better, so I can give the “double chance X2” a certain value in addition to both teams scoring.
AI prediction Heidenheim vs. Kiel: That’s what ChatGPT tips
ChatGPT can also easily imagine that both will score. We asked the AI again for three odds, and it was supposed to look around in different odds regions and chose the goal of both teams from the slightly lower one.
Given the precarious situation at the start, this is a really strong quote. Overall, however, like the bookmakers, she sees advantages for Heidenheim, and for the “high risk” bet she suggests home success, coupled with the “both teams to score” quote.
The odds are not bad, but I’m clearly on the “X2” here; in terms of play, Kiel have impressed me more in the league so far this season, with nine more goals to their name. Therefore, I’m not a fan of the middle option from ChatGPT.
Here, the artificial intelligence serves us the odds that the hosts will score the first goal of the game. In the past eleven matches of the promoted team in the previous season, this was only the case against Leipzig.
Analysis: Heidenheim vs. Kiel
In sporting terms, it has been a very mixed year for 1. FC Heidenheim so far. The worst team of the second half of the season is facing relegation in their second Bundesliga year. In eight games, the club has only collected two points, against Hoffenheim (1-1) and Leipzig.
The only league success in 2025 came when the team, managed by cult coach Frank Schmidt, who has held the position for a whopping 18 years, celebrated a 2-0 win over Union Berlin. That was two months ago.
In the second half of the season, Heidenheim is the only team without a win, having scored the fewest goals with five. And Kiel? They haven’t been that much better in terms of points scored either and, just like in the first half of the season, they have conceded the most goals.
But the Holstein matches are rarely boring. On average, we were offered five goals on average per second leg! The “Over 4.5 goals” line is in the 5.40 range at Betano.
Odds Analysis
Kiel almost followed up a 1-0 win against Union with a second win. But in the end, the storks were unable to capitalize on their long superiority against Stuttgart and only took one point from the 2-2 draw.
This was the eleventh of the last twelve games in which Kiel has scored at least one goal. But: in this series, they only kept a clean sheet once, against the Irons, and the last time before that? Ah yes, against Heidenheim! In the 1-0 win in the first leg four months ago.
But it’s a good thing that defense is not the promoted team’s strong point, as I mentioned earlier. Kiel is also the only team in the 400 club in terms of goals conceded, and at the same time has had the most shots on goal. Heidenheim is not far behind.
I can hardly imagine that it will stay 1:1 on Sunday, which is why you could consider adding “Over 2.5 goals” to the goal of both teams. This already takes us over the 2,000 mark. Nevertheless, I’m covering myself for the most likely result, the 1:1, according to the oddsmakers.
Heidenheim vs. Kiel: Schmidt knows Kiel!
Heidenheim against Kiel, in the Bundesliga there was only the direct duel in the first leg so far. Most often, the clubs faced each other in the second division. They played twelve of the 17 duels in the second division.
With eight wins to five defeats, the team from Baden-Württemberg has a slight statistical advantage, with the points shared four times. Noteworthy: Schmidt was on the sidelines for all 17 games at Heidenheim. The first match was in 2009.
The fact that Schmidt is currently the Bundesliga coach with the longest tenure goes without saying. In the first leg, his team had some good chances but couldn’t capitalize in the end. Given their performance, Kiel shouldn’t have ended up going the whole game without scoring in the Bundesliga for the first time.
They’ve only ever lost one away game, against Union, and they finally got the long-awaited away win. However, with just one victory, Kiel is still the worst away team in the league, and they now face the weakest home team.
Heidenheim have only won twice at home. Surprisingly so, given that the club was still a feared host in the second division and even in their Bundesliga debut year. Even Bayern were unable to beat them.
FCH can’t compensate for the departures!
But the upheaval, especially in offense with the departures of Tim Kleidienst, Eren Dinkci and Jan-Niklas Beste, has hit the small club hard. On Sunday, the newly formed attack faces a battered Kiel defense.
In addition to Colin Kleine-Bekel, John Tolkin, Ivan Nekic and Patrick Erras are missing. At the front, Marcel Rapp has to do without Benedikt Pichler and Phil Harres, who, along with Shuto Machino, has scored the most Bundesliga goals for the northern club so far.
Not an easy personnel situation ahead of such an important game for the KSV, which ultimately also deterred me from the “double chance X2” in combination with both teams scoring.
My Heidenheim Kiel tip:
You know my tips, you rarely experience a 1X2 pick with me. It is especially difficult in such important play-offs as this one. On the defensive side, neither of the cellar teams is doing particularly well, and Kiel also has a few absences at the back.
In terms of play, I trust the guests more with their courageous approach, and the KSV also has one of the best chance conversion rates in the league, which is why the “double chance X2” is more interesting to me than the home win rate.
First and foremost, however, I expect two teams to push for victory here, with the offensive departments in particular setting highlights.
Therefore, my Heidenheim Kiel tip is: Both teams score.
