Heidenheim – Stuttgart Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 23 on Sunday, 22/02/2026 at 19:30 CET
At the end of the 23rd Bundesliga matchday, I have picked out an exciting game for a Heidenheim Stuttgart tip. For the bottom of the league from Heidenheim, the air is getting thinner and thinner in the relegation battle, while VfB is fully on course for the Champions League.
My main tip for this duel is the combination of “win Stuttgart & both teams score”. With Sportwetten.de you get a strong odd of 2.75. Stuttgart are clearly superior, but the Europa League game on Thursday in Glasgow could have cost a lot of energy.
That could play into Heidenheim’s hands to score at least one goal. Recently, Frank Schmidt’s team has risked more offensively, because it simply has to in the fight to stay in the league. Against Dortmund, HSV and Augsburg, nothing countable came out of it, but the chances were there.
The home side are already seven points behind the relegation place as the bottom of the table and urgently need points. For them, each of the remaining twelve games of the season is a final. However, only a single point from the last five games speaks a clear language.
The world looks completely different for the Swabians. Sebastian Hoeneß’s troops are playing a strong season and want to defend fourth place with all their might. RB Leipzig are breathing down their necks with only two points behind, so a slip is forbidden.
The bookmakers take a similar view and send VfB into the race as the clear favorite with a probability of victory of just under 59 percent. For me, the matter is also pretty clear, even if, as I said, I trust the hosts to score a goal of honour.
Heidenheim – Stuttgart Prediction & Betting
If my main bet is a bit too tricky for you, I have of course a few alternatives for your Heidenheim Stuttgart bets. A classic winning tip on the guests is a safe bet. VfB have lost only one of their last nine league games, winning six of them.
Heidenheim, on the other hand, has been waiting for a three-point win for nine games and has suffered seven defeats in the process. Especially against the top teams in the league, the home side look bad and concede an average of 3.0 goals per game. Therefore, a bet on “Stuttgart to score over 2.5 goals” is an option worth considering.
For those who like it a little more specific, I recommend taking a look at the Asian Handicap Line. This is -0.75 for Stuttgart. This means that you win the bet in full if VfB wins by at least two goals. If you win by one goal, you get half the profit back.
What you need to know about Heidenheim vs. Stuttgart betting
- Heidenheim is last in the table, seven points behind the relegation place. They have the weakest attack (19 goals) and the worst defence (48 goals conceded) in the league.
- Stuttgart have lost only one of their last nine league games (six wins) and are scoring an average of 2.22 goals per game in this period.
- In the eight games against the current top six teams in the Bundesliga, Heidenheim has conceded an average of 3.0 goals.
- In terms of the odds on goalscorers, eight Stuttgart players are quoted lower than the most promising candidate from Heidenheim.
Heidenheim – Stuttgart: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model will also take a close look at the 23rd Bundesliga matchday. The Heidenheim Stuttgart AI prediction has three more betting alternatives up its sleeve for you.
In the first tip, the digital brain goes to “draw at half-time” at a strong odd of around 2.40. A 0-0 at half-time is not unlikely.
Deniz Undav already has a total of 12 goals this season. If another goal against Heidenheim follows, the stake will be almost doubled. “Undav scores” is therefore definitely worth considering.
The AI also gives you a result bet. The “3:1 for Stuttgart” fits the starting position and is currently rated by the bookmakers with odds of around 12.5. If you don’t want to take the risk, you can of course fall back on a free bet without deposit at this point.
The best odds for Heidenheim vs. Stuttgart
I took a look at what our in-house AI tool says about the game, and the numbers support my Heidenheim Stuttgart prediction. The probability of an away win is estimated by the simulation at a strong 54.2 percent, while a home win is only 23.9 percent.
The AI also predicts a high-scoring game. For Heidenheim, 1.24 expected goals are calculated, for Stuttgart even 1.93. This results in a total value of 3.17 goals for the game, which clearly speaks for a bet on “Over 2.5 goals”.
The Heidenheim Stuttgart betting odds of the bookmakers reflect this assessment. The odds on a victory for VfB imply a probability of winning of as much as 59 percent, which once again underlines the Swabians’ role as favourites.
It is also interesting to take a look at the Asian Handicap Line for overgoals. This is set at 3.0 goals. If four or more hits are scored, you win the bet. If you score exactly three goals, you get your stake back, which is a nice hedge.
For friends of goalscorer betting, the market is also exciting. Stuttgart is clearly ahead here. Deniz Undav leads the list, followed by Ermedin Demirovic and newcomer Jeremy Arevalo. The latter came from the Spanish second division after eight goals in 18 games.
With so much offensive power on the part of Stuttgart, who face the most porous defence in the league, betting on VfB’s goalscorers is a really good choice. Eight Stuttgart players have better odds than Heidenheim’s top candidate – that says it all.
Heidenheim vs Stuttgart Match Analysis:
Although a whole 29 points separate the two teams in the table, I expect a thrilling game. Heidenheim has nothing left to lose and must play forward with the courage of desperation to preserve the last chance to stay in the league.
For the hosts, the situation is dramatic. The gap to the saving shore is seven points and there are only twelve games left to play. Every game is now an all-or-nothing endgame. They certainly don’t want to be a point supplier anymore.
Stuttgart is also under pressure. The lead over pursuer Leipzig is only two measly points. Every blunder can jeopardize the dream of the Champions League. Tiredness after the European Cup appearance must not be an excuse.
We can assume that VfB will control the game. Heidenheim has the second least possession of the ball in the league on average and likes to leave the field to the opponent. Stuttgart will therefore set the pace despite the away game.
Heidenheim’s defence is the big problem child. They concede the most goals in the league and often looked bad, especially against the top teams. Stuttgart should therefore score a few goals here and take the three points.
Nevertheless, there is a small glimmer of hope for the home side. The strain from the game against Celtic on Thursday could leave its mark on Stuttgart. Perhaps the Heidenheimers will use the tired legs of the opponent for one or the other pinprick.
Heidenheim Form Check
When you look at Heidenheim’s form curve, you get scared and anxious. The narrow 1-0 defeat against direct rivals Augsburg was already the 15th defeat of the season for the bottom of the Bundesliga.
Coach Frank Schmidt’s team scored just two points from the last 27 possible points. With this record, direct relegation seems almost inevitable, as the gap to the relegation place is already six points before this matchday.
The statistics are merciless: In the past ten Bundesliga seasons, the team that was in last place after 22 matchdays has always been relegated directly. The only exception was VfB Stuttgart in the 2014/15 season.
Last season gives a spark of hope, when Heidenheim was last until the 26th matchday and saved itself via relegation. But with only three wins this season, two of them at home, and four winless home games in a row, a repeat seems unlikely.
A huge problem is the defense. Heidenheim is the fourth team in the history of the Bundesliga that has not kept a single clean sheet after 22 matchdays. The defence is a real bunch of chickens.
With 48 goals conceded and a value of 42.76 expected goals conceded (xGA), they are by far the weakest defense in the entire league. So it’s no wonder that they are stuck in the basement of the table.
Stuttgart Form Check
For VfB Stuttgart, anything other than a win would be a bitter disappointment. The team is brimming with self-confidence and, despite the possible travel strains, should have the quality to get the fourth away win in the last five Bundesliga games.
The Swabians are playing an outstanding season and have won three of their last four league games, most recently a commanding 3-1 home win against 1. The chest of Sebastian Hoeneß’s players is therefore correspondingly wide.
The most recent 4-1 win in the Europa League against Celtic on Thursday evening was already the sixth win in the last seven competitive games. This impressive series shows the impressive form Stuttgart are currently in.
Since the beginning of the year, VfB have picked up 16 of a possible 21 points, which means a record of five wins, one draw and only one defeat. Compared to the previous season, they have seven more points on their account at this point.
Especially away from home, VfB is a power. Before the defeat at St. Pauli, they won three away games in a row. In addition, Stuttgart have scored in each of the last 15 Bundesliga away games. Only FC Bayern Munich currently has a longer streak.
A particular strength of Stuttgart is the second half. They have scored 24 goals after the break this season, 14 of them in the final quarter of an hour alone. Only Bayern are more accurate in the final phase of games.
