Bundesliga matchday 10, Sunday, 10.11.2024 at 19:30
Ralph Hasenhüttl cannot and should not be satisfied with the Wolves’ attacking display. If you exclude the extra time against BVB (1:0 win n. V.), the team from Lower Saxony went goalless in two of their three previous matches.
Defensively at least, Hasenhüttl’s concept is working to some extent. In the recent 1-1 draw against Augsburg, VfL conceded just 0.43 goals and allowed only three shots against.
Nevertheless, the visitors have not won in three Bundesliga games for the third time in Hasenhüttl’s tenure. Not for the first time, Wolfsburg are only just above the bottom of the table (9 points).
Heidenheim fished one more point out of the pond from the first nine matchdays (10), but six of them came from the first two matches.
The absurd efficiency from the start of the season has long since disappeared and has even found its way to the other extreme. This paves the way for my Heidenheim Wolfsburg betting tip, which I place at Betway at odds of 1.87 on “Under 2.5 goals in the match”.
The oddsmakers’ forecast?
What looks like a neighborly duel on paper is also law for the betting providers. The Heidenheim Wolfsburg odds for a draw are only in the region of 3.40.
The bookmakers only have limited faith in either team to win this match. After two unbeaten Bundesliga away games in a row, the Wolves have a minimal advantage and are favored by a wafer-thin margin with odds of up to 2.57.
Heidenheim have won every match in the Conference League so far (3), but in the Bundesliga it has been almost impossible to win recently. On the Voith Arena pitch, FCH are getting odds of up to just under 2.90 for a three-pointer.
KI Prediction Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg: ChatGPT
Heidenheim have only managed to avoid defeat in one of their last four Bundesliga games. ChatGPT nevertheless gives the FCH hope and chooses a “double chance 1X” for a bet with supposedly low risk. However, the odds of 1.49 at Oddset are not much help to me in this starting position and are ruled out for further consideration.
I also don’t agree with the variant which, according to the artificial intelligence, requires a medium risk appetite from you. “Over 3.5 goals” would guide you to a triple win at Bwin, but so far only a third of the FCH matches have contained at least four goals.
In the duel between two teams with poor form, at least at Bundesliga level, the AI forecast throws a high-risk bet into the room at the end. “Heidenheim to win to zero” is available at Betano at odds of 5.30. This betting option is supported by the fact that Heidenheim have already completed four Bundesliga matchdays without conceding a goal – three of them with a win to nil.
Analysis: Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg
After the second matchday, both teams had only one win in the German top flight. The poor results and the resulting lack of points have sent both teams into the bottom half of the table.
The Wolves lack a clear game idea for the final third. The visitors too rarely create clear scoring chances that end with a shot on goal. In total, VfL only had 38 shots on goal (14th).
Heidenheim barely managed more shots on goal (40). However, Wolfsburg have enjoyed the third-best shot conversion rate so far (14.16%).
Both teams rarely penetrate the opposition penalty area. Wolfsburg (189) and Heidenheim (189) are only in the bottom half of the table in terms of ball contact in the opponent’s penalty area.
One of the greatest strengths of both teams is the resting ball. Wolfsburg (6), together with Bayern, scored the most goals from set pieces. FCH are close behind them in the list (5).
VfL’s 3.87 expected goals after a set-piece (2nd) are completely insane. Leverkusen may well have come above the Lower Saxons (6.47 xG), but they needed almost twice as many shots after a resting ball (65). Wolfsburg managed almost half as many (33).
A total of eleven teams took more shots as a result of a set piece – but only one team (Leverkusen) scored more expected goals from these scenes.
Odds Analysis
As an alternative program to my Heidenheim Wolfsburg betting tip, I have odds of 2.10 for “Both teams score: No” on offer.
Four of the five previous FCH matches would have met the requirements for a successful bet on “BTS: No”.
A Winamax freebet would probably be the best option for this bet in this case, as VfL have finished 78 percent of their Bundesliga matches so far with goals on both sides.
A possible betting range for this Oddset bonus would be a bet on “draw”. The last meeting brought a 1:1 on the scoreboard. In addition, three of the last five VfL games have ended in a draw.
Heidenheim vs Wolfsburg odds: How about a comeback?
After two matchdays, Heidenheim led the Bundesliga table and had cobbled together a goal difference of 6:0 from duels against St. Pauli (2:0) and Augsburg (4:0).
Since then, the hosts have won just one of their last seven league games and lost five of seven encounters.
The knockout criterion for Frank Schmidt’s team is a deficit. Heidenheim have been behind in five games this season and have lost in the end on each occasion.
But can they perhaps pull off their first comeback win against the Wolves? Wolfsburg have been more generous with the points after taking the lead than any other Bundesliga team (11 points conceded after taking the lead).
Pressure at the end
Heidenheim are currently lacking the effectiveness at the end to achieve better results in the Bundesliga. On the first two matchdays, FCH were still by far the best team in the Bundesliga in this category.
In the meantime, the shooting conversion rate has plummeted. Just 12.9% is only good enough for 15th place in the league!
One problem is the wide spread of shots. The Swabians were able to get considerably less than half of their shots on target (43%) – also 15th in the league!
As a result, Heidenheim missed a few points. Only Bochum (2.4) have so far scored less than the Schmidt team (-1.8).
We don’t need to expect top-class soccer from this encounter. Heidenheim (42.8 percent) and Wolfsburg (43.0 percent) do not care at all about longer periods of possession.
Perhaps the hosts could ensure a goalless draw with a wild transition game. To date, only RB Leipzig (6) and Bayern (5) have kept a clean sheet more often than FCH (4).
The home side’s attacking play has come to a complete standstill in recent games. Heidenheim have failed to score in three of their last four Bundesliga matches.
However, Schmidt’s charges have also conceded a maximum of one goal in three of their previous four BL matches.
If you want to make a real splash, use an odds boost for a bet on “Under 1.5 goals” in the match and set your sights on odds of 3.60 and more.
VfL goalkeeper Kamil Grabara has already stopped two goals (5th) and is one of the best goalkeepers of this season.
His counterpart has benefited somewhat more from the intensive defensive work of his front men and has only had to deal with 63.5 percent (5th) of shots from inside his own penalty area.
Overall, Heidenheim defend their own penalty area with all available means and have only allowed their opponents to make 204 contacts in the penalty area in nine league games (8th).
My Heidenheim Wolfsburg tip:
I expect a game in which both teams will have problems combining into the opponent’s penalty area.
Given their recent results, both coaches will be keen to focus even more on working against the ball and possibly scoring the decisive winning goal with one of their own set pieces.
A hectic game without big scoring chances on both sides will keep the number of goals low and help me to make the Heidenheim Wolfsburg betting tip successful.
My Heidenheim Wolfsburg betting tip: Under 2.5 goals!
