Bundesliga 27th matchday, Saturday, 29/03/2025 at 3:30 pm
This series is impressive! FC Augsburg have not conceded a goal in six games. That is a club record – as are the ten unbeaten Bundesliga matches in a row. Overall, the Bavarian Swabians have conceded the fewest goals in 2025 with three.
So TSG Hoffenheim has a difficult task ahead of it, hoping that the visitors have lost some of their rhythm during the first international break of the year.
Admittedly, I have found it easier to find a suitable bet for a match before, but with my Hoffenheim Augsburg tip, I feel very comfortable with the double chance X2 at betting provider Interwetten!
Augsburg have not lost in ten matches. No other Bundesliga team has managed that in that time. In addition, the FCA have already played the second-most league games without conceding a goal since 2016/17. This season, they have kept ten clean sheets, compared to eleven last time out.
So the record is definitely still within reach. Augsburg conceded their last goal in the 1-1 draw with St. Pauli, Stuttgart also handed the team their only defeat at the start of the year (0-1). In no game did the fans see more than one goal scored against them…
The betting providers’ prediction
Despite these defensive statistics, betting providers believe that Augsburg is only a slight underdog in Sinsheim, with odds of 3.05 before kick-off. TSG is at 2.40, with a draw in the range of 3.30.
I see it differently and am pleased with the distribution. In fact, the away win odds would have been a bit too high for me, but now I can still be happy about the very high odds for the double chance X2.
AI Prediction Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg: That’s what ChatGPT tips
I am also quite surprised by the odds suggested by the AI. After all, ChatGPT expects a few goals on Saturday afternoon after the numerous clean sheets by Augsburg. For example, it throws the goal of both teams into the room.
From the middle odds shelf, she has picked out the over-2.5-goals classic. I’m not going with that. Not only have the guests failed to put on a show in the penalty areas recently, but we have also seen quieter games at Hoffenheim.
But as so often, more goals tend to be scored just when we least expect it – and that’s probably what the AI has determined with its data, which, among other things, is anchored in the last result in the PreZero Arena. That duel ended with a 3-1 win for Hoffenheim.
In the match outcome sector, however, the AI still prefers the Augsburg team to win, despite the higher risk. Of the three bets offered, this is still my favorite. In fact, I prefer an under goal bet to an over goal bet.
Analysis: Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg
However, the odds for this are not particularly attractive. For Under 3.5 goals, the odds are just 1.27. If I were to choose this option, I would add it to my double chance X2 to get to 1.95. A tip for all those for whom the X2 single variant is too low.
A team that was floundering has now become a serious contender in the European Cup race. Augsburg is in ninth place at the start of the match day, just four points behind Leipzig in fifth place.
In addition to three 0-0 draws against Mainz, Leipzig and Freiburg, there were recent victories against Gladbach (3-0), Dortmund (1-0) and Wolfsburg (1-0). In the 2025 table, they are currently in third place. Only Bayern and Leverkusen scored even more eagerly.
In the second half of the season table, however, it is even in second place, with twelve goals in nine games being by far the lowest score. We are far from an average of 2.0 goals per game…
Odds Analysis
The reason I have decided on the double chance X2 is precisely this defensive stability, which makes the difference for me here in the Head2Head. Hoffenheim, with its 48 goals conceded, is one of the weakest defenses, even allowing more at home than away.
Christian Ilzer has managed to stabilize the team to some extent, after all, we are talking about only a maximum of one goal conceded in the last five matches, but the 1-0 win against Bochum was also the only clean sheet in the last 16 matches.
In view of this record, I naturally took a closer look at Augsburg’s goal rate, for which I found 1.40 in the best sports betting apps, a good selection for a conference combination bet.
Hoffenheim vs. Augsburg: The FCA has the second-fewest shots on target in the league
But watch out! Augsburg has had the second-fewest shots on target in the league after St. Pauli. And their own offensive department has only really performed well against Gladbach recently. Although it has to be said that if you don’t concede any goals, you don’t have to score many yourself.
There is no question that the defensive numbers are much better. It’s the other way around for Hoffenheim. With 127 shots on target, the Kraichgauer have seen more than most fly into the goal.
In the relegation battle, Hoffenheim was able to gain some breathing space in the previous matches. A 3-1 win over Werder and victories in Bochum and a draw against Stuttgart and Heidenheim have allowed the cushion to grow to six points.
Hoffenheim can now also speak of at least four unbeaten games in the last five matchdays. At home, there have only been three wins so far. No Bundesliga team has celebrated fewer successes in their own backyard.
And Augsburg have not lost an away game since November, when they lost to the great FC Bayern at the Allianz Arena, but even that was a close game in which Bayern only took the lead after a penalty kick. Only one goal was scored from open play.
When looking back at matches from last year, I have to mention the first leg of this tie. There wasn’t much to see for the ticket prices. The FCA were the slightly better team in a 0-0 draw in which both teams remained below the 1.00 expected goal value.
In my opinion, a 0-0 and 1-1 draw are the most likely results on Saturday. At Winamax, we can use the Multi-Chance feature to combine several results in the configurator. This is a great feature, especially for me as an unlucky Kicktipp player who is usually wrong about a goal.
We get 3.90 for the two results mentioned above. So if you’re thinking about betting on a draw (3.30), you can cobble together an even higher odds with this. A 2:2 or 3:3 is very unlikely.
My Hoffenheim Augsburg Tip:
Augsburg has not been beaten in ten games, is the second-best team in the second half of the season and has not lost in six matches, breaking one club record after another in the process.
In addition to this stability, the decisive point for me is why I am betting on the double chance X2, which Hoffenheim does not yet have: a clean sheet in the last 16 games and, after Kiel, the most home goals conceded…
The fact that some players are missing from the defense doesn’t exactly help the hosts either – so I’m choosing the double chance X2 for good reasons!
Double Chance X2
