Hoffenheim – HSV Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 14 on Saturday, 13.12.2025 at 15:30 CET
On Matchday 14 of the Bundesliga, TSG Hoffenheim will be looking to make up for their recent defeat against Borussia Dortmund and underpin their European ambitions with a home win against HSV.
The odds situation forces me to go for a home win in my Hoffenheim HSV bet. In fact, the bookmakers are calling for odds of around 1.75 for TSG to win.
The fact that 1899 has won the last three home games and incidentally meets the worst away team of the current Bundesliga season simply does not seem to be in mind by the bookmakers.
In fact, Hamburg’s away record up to this point is downright creepy. With two points and only two goals scored, the newly promoted team in Hoffenheim is of course only left with the role of outsiders.
Of course, I’m aware that HSV have won the last two league games against Stuttgart (2-1) and Bremen (3-2). However, those successes came at home in the Volksparkstadion and not abroad. The last two away games: a 4-1 defeat in Cologne and a 1-0 defeat in Augsburg.
Hoffenheim – HSV Prediction & Betting
I assume that Hoffenheim will dominate the game from the start and put the promoted team in its place. My first tip alternative is therefore “Hoffenheim over 1.5 goals”. The odds around 1.55 can easily be played as a single bet at German betting providers.
I go one step further with my second selection. “Hoffenheim leads at half-time” has a strong odds of around 2.20. Hamburg’s away weakness was already noticeable in the first half. And in the last home game against Augsburg, TSG led 3-0 at half-time.
Since HSV hardly scores away from home, I also set my sights on the bet “Hamburg under 0.5 goals”. The odds around 3.00 are terrific and, in my opinion, justify the risk.
What you need to know about Hoffenheim vs. HSV betting
- Hoffenheim have been particularly strong at home this season, averaging 1.50 points per game and celebrating three home wins in a row for the first time under Christian Ilzer. This three-game streak already includes more wins than in his previous 15 home games combined (2 wins, 5 draws, 8 losses).
- HSV, on the other hand, have won two Bundesliga games in a row for the first time this season, achieving the same number of successes as in the first eleven games. Remarkably, all four HSV wins this season have come at their home Volksparkstadion.
- In the last five direct duels, a total of 16 goals have been scored – an average of 3.2 goals per game. Both teams have scored in three of these five meetings, but not in the most recent two.
- Tim Lemperle has 4.19 expected goals and four goals in twelve appearances for Hoffenheim this season – the highest xG value of all Hoffenheim players.
Hoffenheim – HSV: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model will also be at the start on the penultimate Bundesliga matchday of the year and provides you with its very own Hoffenheim HSV AI prediction.
First of all, the digital brain recommends “Win Hoffenheim with Asian handicap -0.75”. The odds are around 1.90, but of course they are ambivalent. An unadorned 1-0 win by TSG wouldn’t be a real surprise for me.
And the second selection “Over 2.5 goals” at odds of 1.50 is also not a value bet in my opinion. On the one hand, the rate is quite low, and on the other hand, Hamburg’s weak away attack suggests that TSG will have to score the goals on their own.
On the other hand, I really like the result bet listed by the AI as a risk tip at the end. The “2:0 for Hoffenheim” is quoted at about 11.25 even without the Oddset odds boost and is suitable for example with the use of a free bet.
The best odds for Hoffenheim vs. HSV
The odds for Hoffenheim against HSV clearly speak for the hosts, who go into the game on matchday 14 of the Bundesliga as clear favourites.
Hoffenheim’s odds in the 1×2 market imply a probability of victory of 58 percent, while the current price for HSV suggests a chance of only 22 percent of an away win.
The Asian Handicap line is set at 0.75. In the case of the Hoffenheim -0.75 handicap, the hosts must generally win in order to achieve a payout. In the event of a win by only one goal, bettors will receive half of the possible winnings, while a win of at least two goals is required for a full win.
The Asian goal line is under/above 3.0 goals. This line corresponds to most Bundesliga games, as the league average before Matchday 14 is 3.22 goals per 90 minutes.
If exactly three hits are hit, the stake is fully refunded. Four or more goals are required for “over” tipsters, a maximum of two for “under” tipsters.
In the market for goalscorers at any time, seven Hoffenheim players were priced lower than the highest-traded HSV professional. Andrej Kramaric, Adam Hlozek and Fisnik Asllani lead the market as favourites to score in the upcoming game.
Hoffenheim vs HSV Match Analysis:
Hoffenheim’s current form puts the club in fifth place in the Bundesliga – with a win, they could even move into the top four, depending on the other results.
Hamburg is eight points behind and could increase the gap to the relegation zone. Accordingly, an intense duel between two teams that urgently need a win is to be expected.
HSV’s games are among the most card-rich in the Bundesliga. Both teams also have more fouls per game than the league average, which indicates a heated encounter.
Hoffenheim are usually dominant, especially in their own stadium. The Kraichgau team have the fifth-highest possession value in the league and should also have a greater share in the game against Hamburg.
The so-called field tilt, a measure of territorial superiority, underlines this expectation: HSV has the third-lowest value in the league at 41.68 percent, 10.75 percentage points less than Hoffenheim. Accordingly, the home team is likely to be on the ball more often in dangerous zones.
In addition, Hoffenheim has the fourth-highest average defensive line in the Bundesliga, which should help them keep HSV low.
At the same time, the Ilzer team has to watch out for counterattacks: Merlin Polzin’s team has a lot of pace in attack and has already scored three league goals this season directly after transition situations.
Hoffenheim form check
Hoffenheim suffered a 2-0 defeat against Dortmund last weekend – the first defeat after seven league games without a loss.
Despite four defeats this season, the Kraichgau team’s record is positive overall: they are currently 13 points better off than at the same time in the 2024/25 season, when they had just 13 points.
Last season, Hoffenheim finished the round with just 32 points, with 21 games still to go, they are now only nine points short of surpassing this mark.
According to our AI model, Hoffenheim has a 43.3 percent probability of finishing the season among the top six teams in the Bundesliga and thus securing a European place.
The team has been particularly strong at home this season: Hoffenheim are averaging 1.50 points per home game and have celebrated three home wins in a row for the first time under Christian Ilzer – more than in their previous 15 home games combined (2 wins, 5 draws, 8 defeats).
In addition, the team has shown great resilience this season and has already collected ten points from behind – only achieved by VfB Stuttgart in the league.
Hoffenheim are aggressive against the ball: they lead the Bundesliga with 179 pressing sequences and have the lowest PPDA value in the league (9.7 opponent passes per defensive action).
The challenge, however, remains to convert this pressing into goals: Despite an average of 8.38 shots per game after high ball wins – the fourth-highest figure in the league – Hoffenheim have only scored once from such situations so far.
HSV Form Check
Last Sunday’s victory was a significant psychological boost for HSV. Poulsen’s first goal secured a dramatic success in the northern derby against Werder Bremen.
For the first time since April 2018, HSV turned around a Bundesliga game after coming from behind and beat Werder 3-2 at the weekend. After the biggest win of the season so far, the newly promoted team will play the end of the year against Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt.
HSV have celebrated two Bundesliga wins in a row for the first time this season and have already achieved as many successes as in the first eleven games.
All four HSV victories this season have come in their own stadium, while the performances away from home have so far remained modest: two draws, four defeats.
With only two away goals, HSV has the weakest away attack in the Bundesliga. As the only team in the league, the Hamburg team is still waiting for their first away win; they are at the bottom of the away table with two points (2 draws, 4 defeats).
HSV’s last Bundesliga away win dates back to 28 April 2018 – a 3-1 win at Wolfsburg during the later relegation season.
In contrast to Hoffenheim, HSV has the second fewest pressing sequences in the league (106) and thus often leaves the initiative to the opponent.
Nevertheless, Hamburg is in seventh place in the league with an average of 13.23 shots per game, even though the conversion rate of 8.14 percent is the third-worst in the Bundesliga.
