Bundesliga 29th matchday, Saturday, 10/04/2025 at 3:30 pm
Just recently, Christian Ilzer spoke of TSG’s vision for the future, to be back in the European Cup in the next few years. Currently, he and his Hoffenheimers have to be careful not to be relegated from the Bundesliga after all.
No victory in the last four games and only two points taken. There are just five points to the relegation place and now a match against a team in a Champions League place is on the program.
In my Hoffenheim Mainz betting tip, I expect the attack to provide highlights in particular and choose the goal of both teams with “Over 2.5 goals” at Betano.
What is so special about Hoffenheim’s 1-0 win against Bochum on March 1? That’s right, it was the only game that TSG finished without conceding a goal. In the other 14 games that year, the ball was in the net.
So I’m not really feeling confident about the game against Mainz, although they haven’t been at their best defensively lately either. How do the betting providers rate this match?
The betting providers’ forecast
If I look at the odds, the game seems to be one for our new “Hands off!” section. Mainz has a win rate of 2.57, Hoffenheim a 2.70, and a draw can be added to the betting slip shopping cart at a rate of 3.70.
And yes, unfortunately I have to avoid the initial market again. This time, not even the individual double chance selections at 1.50 are particularly lucrative. Will the AI agree with me on this?
AI prediction Hoffenheim vs. Mainz: ChatGPT’s prediction
Absolutely. Of the three odds served, not a single one refers to victory, draw or defeat. Instead, ChatGPT keeps both teams’ goals and “Over 2.5 goals” ready for us as suggestions for “low risk” and “medium risk” bets.
I immediately combined the two. Because this time I am convinced that it will not remain a 1-1 draw. A result that neither team can really do anything with. Mainz is dreaming of the Champions League and finally wants a three-pointer again.
Hoffenheim is also aiming for nothing less in an uncomfortable table situation.
ChatGPT may be deterred from betting on a win, draw or defeat by the fact that we have recently seen no consistency in the teams’ records. At Hoffenheim, we have never seen the same outcome from weekend to weekend in the past eight games.
At Mainz, we can draw the same conclusion about the previous four matches. In the high odds segment, the AI has decided to bet that Jonathan Burkhardt will score the first goal on Saturday afternoon.
He is the figurehead of the team, but in the last few games, several other Mainz players have scored as well. He, however, has not scored in the last 180 minutes. However, three of his last four goals were 1-0.
Analysis: Hoffenheim vs. Mainz
At least at home, Hoffenheim went three games without a win, but they also didn’t lose. They drew 1-1 against Stuttgart, Heidenheim and Augsburg. The Sinsheimers managed to break the Fuggerstadters’ current clean sheet record.
A streak that TSG itself can only dream of at the moment. For the Mainz goal, a 1.24 odds, I’ve found worse odds for a combo ticket at this level before.
The odds are still in this useful region this time, as Mainz has to do without an important key player. Nadiem Amiri picked up his fifth yellow card last week against Kiel. By the way, I also wrote a prediction for you about this Mainz game.
Due to the spotty defensive performances against Freiburg (2:2) and Dortmund (1:3) before, I went for the goal of both teams, didn’t trust the clear home win rate and, as it turned out in the end, rightly so!
Odds analysis
Hoffenheim allows the third-most shots on goal after Kiel and Frankfurt, and now Leo Ostigard’s red card is added to that. Alongside Ozan Kabak, who is out with a long-term injury, this is a serious loss in Hoffenheim’s central defense.
Hoffenheim will also be without Alexander Prass and Christopher Lenz on the wings. With their already dire defensive record, I can easily see FSV scoring twice, which is already on offer at odds of 2.15.
At Betano, you can also start betting without making a deposit. Because after successful account verification, you will be credited with a €20 free bet. You can also get your hands on a further €80 in bonus credit and enjoy fair wagering requirements.
Hoffenheim vs. Mainz: Burkhardt with a double pack in the first leg
Mainz already scored twice in the first leg, when the zero-fivers scored a 2-0 victory. Incidentally, both goals were scored by Burkhardt, which once again means that the AI is the first to score, which actually speaks in favor of the AI’s odds.
The center forward has scored a total of 15 goals this season, and his simple goal rate of 2.32 is already quite appealing. For Hoffenheim, Andrej Kramaric, Adam Hlozek and Gift Orban are ahead, all of whom are already in the triple-digit range.
Very attractive odds, considering that Mainz have struggled in their own penalty area in recent games. But only Bayern and Leverkusen have picked up more points away from home.
From TSG’s point of view, it’s also not encouraging that Mainz have scored significantly more goals away from home.
Mainz the second most efficient team in the league after Bayern
What I find particularly interesting is the fact that you have a clear tendency towards the outcome of the game. Two days before the start of the game, 87 percent of Winamax users in the 1X2 market have pounced on the Mainz victory.
Just four percent are backing the Sinsheimers, who are threatened with relegation. Nine percent have bet on a draw. The “double chance X2” is also trending accordingly.
After a 1-1 draw against bottom-of-the-league Kiel and the defensive problems, including the suspension of Amiri, I see it as much more evenly matched. Perhaps one or two of you out there will be convinced by the fact that Mainz is very efficient with the opportunities it gets.
At 11.4 percent, the “Karnevalsverein” has the second-best chance conversion rate in the league. Hoffenheim is among the five weakest teams in the league in this ranking.
My Hoffenheim Mainz tip:
Your tendency is clearly towards Mainz, mine is towards goals. Both teams have not presented themselves in good defensive form recently, Hoffenheim 2025 even played to zero for the first time. I also expect two teams to play for the win here.
I see a slight advantage for the guests, as Hoffenheim is missing a few players in defense and the zero-fivers have won three of their last five away games.
Nevertheless, for me it would be a maximum of the “double chance X2”, but that is clearly too low for me. Instead, I rely on the offensive departments, which should set a few highlights on Saturday afternoon!
Therefore, my Hoffenheim Mainz tip is: Both score, the 2.5 goal mark is broken!
