HSV – Bremen Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 13 on Sunday, 07/12/2025 at 15:30 CET
The North derby between HSV and Weder Bremen on matchday 13 of the Bundesliga is not a classic top game. Because while the Hamburgers are primarily trying to keep their distance from the relegation places, Bremen is bobbing along in the secure midfield of the table.
In my HSV Bremen tip, I take aim at the bet “Both teams to score” at odds of about 1.55 at Betano, mainly because both teams have not been really stable defensively recently.
For HSV, the starting position before the duel with Werder is ambivalent overall. On the one hand, as a promoted team, they have a solid four-point lead over the relegation place after twelve completed matchdays.
On the other hand, they have only three wins this season and recently had to give up in the DFB Cup against second division Kiel.
With Bremen, they are now facing a team that probably doesn’t know exactly where it belongs this season. It is no coincidence that SVW is in a meaningless ninth place in the table before matchday 13. In short: There is no clear favorite for this northern derby.
HSV – Bremen Prediction & Betting
As a first tip alternative, I bring a result bet into play. The “1:1 draw” is comparatively low at German bookmakers (7.20), but offers sufficient value in view of the starting position. No coincidence: It is also the most likely end result for the bookmakers.
Also interesting from my point of view is the bet “HSV under 1.5 goals”. The odds of 1.75 are even rather generous, considering that the Northern Lights are only on 11 goals this season. And: Four goals alone can be traced back to the 4-0 win against Mainz.
If I had to choose, I wouldn’t bet on a Hamburg home win. Rather, the “Double Chance X2” at odds around 1.62 catches my eye. HSV have won only half of their home games so far this season and recently did not get beyond a 0-0 draw against Kiel after regular time.
This is what you need to consider when betting on HSV vs. Bremen
- HSV (13th place) moved further away from the relegation zone with an impressive win against VfB Stuttgart last weekend. Merlin Polzin’s team struggled at the start of the season, but recent points against Stuttgart, Dortmund and Mainz should give them new confidence.
- Werder Bremen have already allowed 188 shots on goal this Bundesliga season, only Heidenheim more (190). HSV, on the other hand, has the sixth most shots in the league with 160 shots (level with Frankfurt), but has the worst chance conversion rate in the Bundesliga: 6.88 percent.
- Hamburg have also committed the third most fouls in the league, which is likely to open up set pieces for the guests. However, Werder is in the middle of the table in terms of set-piece goals and has only scored three goals from stationary balls after twelve games.
- HSV professional Ransford Königsdörffer has only scored once this Bundesliga season – with an expected goals value of 4.22. This corresponds to an underperformance of -3.22 and is the second-worst value in the league behind Andrej Ilic (-3.63) of Union Berlin.
HSV – Bremen: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model doesn’t want to miss the North Derby and presents you with its whole own HSV Bremen AI prediction. So you can’t complain about a lack of tip alternatives.
However, the first selection of the digital brain should be treated with caution. “Victory HSV” means a certain risk at odds around 2.35. It is above all the unpredictability of the people of Hamburg that you have to live with. How do a 2-1 win against Stuttgart and a 0-0 draw against second-division Kiel fit together?
The second tip of the AI, on the other hand, I like much better. Bremen (16 goals) and HSV (11 goals) are not known for their offensive strength this season and are likely to score a maximum of one goal each.
Since it can be assumed that a tough duel marked by many mistakes will develop, a preliminary decision at half-time should not be made.
Accordingly, the AI selects the bet “Draw at half-time” at odds of about 2.30 at the end. A 1:1 after 45 minutes, which lasts until the end, seems extremely realistic to me.
The best odds for HSV vs. Bremen
The odds for HSV against Bremen see the hosts in the 1×2 market as slight favorites, but with odds above 2.0. The current bookmaker odds correspond to an implied probability of victory of HSV of 43 percent, while Bremen has an away probability of 33 percent.
The Asian Handicap line is set at 0.25. The Asian Handicap of -0.25 for HSV means that in the event of a draw, half of the stake will be refunded and thus there is a certain amount of protection. For a complete win on this handicap, HSV must win with any result.
Bremen have won only one away game this season – strong away from home is different.
The Asian goal line for HSV against Bremen is over/under 2.75 goals. It is noteworthy that HSV has the lowest goal rate of all teams this Bundesliga season with an average of 2.42 goals per game.
The inclusion of the hosts in this line suggests that bettors should act cautiously here, with only 50 per cent of HSV’s 2025/26 games ending with three or more goals.
HSV vs Bremen Match Analysis:
As the 1×2 ratings suggest, it should be a close duel. The home advantage could give HSV a small advantage, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Hamburg will dominate the game.
HSV is in fourth-last place in the Bundesliga in terms of so-called field tilt – a value for territorial superiority.
Bremen ranks directly behind HSV in this category. So one of the two teams will be forced to take a more patient approach here.
Hamburg is a competent counter-attacking team. The team can switch with speed, which Bremen must take into account if they want to push many players forward. An early deficit could be fatal for the guests.
Merlin Polzin’s team has also committed the third most fouls in the league – a potential chance for Werder at set-pieces. However, Bremen is only in the lower league in terms of goals scored after stationary balls and has only scored three goals so far.
It is likely to be a game of small differences, but HSV’s recent home results suggest that the hosts will take a somewhat more positive approach.
HSV Form Check
HSV is currently above the line. AI forecasts predict that the Hamburgers will stay in the league with at least 34 points.
On the last matchday, HSV scored their third Bundesliga success of the current season with a 2-1 win against Stuttgart in the 94th minute – all three victories were won at home.
With ten points from six home games, Hamburg is experiencing its best Bundesliga home season since 2010/11, when they were on eleven points after the same number of games.
On Wednesday, however, Merlin Polzin’s team lost on penalties at home to Holstein Kiel in the DFB Cup. The early exit could prove to be an advantage for the promoted team, as the focus is now entirely on the Bundesliga.
HSV has the sixth most shots on goal in the league with 160 shots (level with Frankfurt), but has the worst chance conversion rate in the Bundesliga: only 6.88 percent.
Hamburg also have the worst ratio of goals scored (11) to expected goals (xG: 14.99). The difference of -3.99 is the most negative value in the entire league.
The hosts have scored just two goals from set-pieces this Bundesliga season – a league low – and are the only team not to have scored from a corner in 2025/26.
Nevertheless, HSV generated 4.25 xG from set pieces – the seventh-best value in the league. However, the lack of recycling remains a problem. Alexander Rössing-Lelesiit, who received Hamburg’s fifth red card of the season – the highest figure in the Bundesliga together with Mainz, will not be available.
Bremen Form Check
Werder Bremen are in good form and have lost only one of their last seven Bundesliga games. In this period, only five Bundesliga clubs have collected more points per game than Bremen (1.71).
Bremen are also unbeaten in six Bundesliga games against promoted teams (three wins, three draws) – a streak that goes back to the 2-1 home defeat against Heidenheim in February 2024. It is their longest such streak since 2009 to 2010 (seven games).
Werder are currently in ninth place and, according to forecasts, will hold this position until the end of the season – with a maximum of 45 points, six less than in the 2024/25 season.
However, Bremen are struggling away from home: they have been winless in four away games in the Bundesliga (two draws, two defeats) and have won only one of their six away games this season (two draws, three defeats) – a 4-0 win against Gladbach on Matchday 3.
Werder have already conceded 13 goals away from home, only three Bundesliga teams are worse off in this respect. Bremen have already faced 188 shots on goal this season, only Heidenheim had to cope with more (190).
However, opponents take their chances against Bremen comparatively rarely: Only 11.17 percent of opponents’ shots led to goals – the sixth-best figure in the Bundesliga.
Bremen could still have problems against more precise opponents, as the team has less than 50 percent possession on average.
