HSV – RB Leipzig Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 24 on Sunday, 01.03.2026 at 19:30 CET
The fans of the “Red Bulls” are confident that a little North Sea air will do their team good. Because on Sunday evening, they expect an away win at the Volksparkstadion, just like the German bookmakers.
However, I am not particularly convinced by this 1X2 bet. The promoted team is tough, difficult to play against and equipped with the self-confidence of a team that has already been unbeaten in the fight to stay in the league for six matchdays.
In my opinion, the most sensible thing to do from a purely game theory point of view is to opt for a simple draw bet at strong odds of about 3.60 on the practical Interwetten app.
Not least because the game takes place at the provisional draw kings of the league – eight points are topped by no one else in the league!
If I had known that the year 2026 would start so well for the promoted team, then according to the current Bundesliga schedule, I would certainly have bet one or two more freebets on them over the past weekends, which are also available to you.
Apart from BVB, only HSV remained unbeaten in the Bundesliga in the first six games of the second half of the season (2 wins, 4 draws).
By the way, this is a really good omen to finally free yourself as a fan of the supporters from any fears of relegation in the long term.
Because in this century, the Rothosen only managed to do so in 2007/08, when the first defeat did not come until the 10th matchday of the second half of the season – and they even finished in fourth place in the end.
HSV – RB Leipzig Prediction & Betting
I stick to my HSV RB Leipzig tip, as I think the draw is the most promising 1X2 scenario in relation to the respective payout.
Nevertheless, I can also be inspired by the Draw-no-Bet: Hamburg option if the Hanseatic team shows as combative at home as they did recently against Bayern (2-2) or Union (3-2).
The profit factor of this DnB bet of about 2.35x on the betting markets is at least fair in any case.
More than just “fair”, on the other hand, are the odds of about 3.44 that are offered to you for the selection Fabio Vieira meets.
Because the Portuguese with the shirt number 20 has already been an integral part of the Northern Lights’ offensive game with seven goal involvements – and his performance against Mainz? Great!
If HSV was able to leave the carnival city with a point, it was probably only because of its strong midfield performance and his equaliser to make it 1-1.
What you need to know about HSV vs. RB Leipzig betting
- Hanseatic wave of success: HSV are unbeaten in six Bundesliga games (W2 D4) – a run currently only surpassed by Borussia Dortmund; the Rothosen are particularly convincing defensively in 2026 and have the most stable defence in the lower half of the table.
- Despite oppressive dominance and peak shots (16.22 per game) as well as the second-highest xG value in the league (1.91), RB Leipzig have hardly been able to win recently; three of the last six competitive games have ended in draws, including the most recent 2-2 draw against Dortmund.
- HSV’s duels against top teams regularly develop into a “both teams to score” scenario – after Leipzig’s 2-1 win in the first leg and Hamburg’s points against Bayern (2-2) and Union Berlin (3-2), goals on both sides are statistically very likely.
- Personnel poker in the Volkspark: While HSV relies on the new defensive heart Nicolai “Rambo” Remberg and the in-form Fabio Vieira, Leipzig’s hopes rest on Christoph Baumgartner; RB striker Conrad Harder, on the other hand, is still waiting for his final breakthrough after his summer move from Portugal (2 goals in 20 games).
HSV – RB Leipzig: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our digital bettor provides me with great Bundesliga predictions on a weekly basis, but judging by his latest HSV RB Leipzig AI prediction, you might think he’s an ardent supporter of the Hanseatic club.
The first suggestion recommends the combination bet to win HSV & over 4.5 goals at bombastic odds of about 8.50, if this bold tip should actually come true.
In my opinion, however, the wrong opponent is in town for a wild 3:2, because the Saxons usually start too hesitantly to actually get involved in such an open exchange of blows.
After all, RBL have not conceded a single goal before the break in their last six away games in all competitions alone. So in my opinion, HSV will have to be patient …
What our data model also believes in is a victory for Hamburg after falling behind, which you can find under the category “Special Bet” at Betano. There are indeed quite attractive odds of around 7.90 that can be cleared.
I’m not a fan of such risk bets, but in view of the numbers, at least I can’t accuse our AI of nonsense. Hardly any other club has lost as many points after taking the lead in 2025/26 as RBL (18).
Fancy something really ruthless? At Interwetten you can place so-called half-time/full-time result bets, where it returns 20.00 if the game takes the following course: 1:0/4+ – in other words: After a 1:0 lead for the host, 4+ goals are scored after the break, no matter for whom!
The best odds for HSV vs RB Leipzig
The bookmakers are impressed by Hamburg’s sovereign performances: The Hanseatic team look far from a classic promoted team, and their reputation precedes them.
Accordingly, the outsider role on Sunday within the HSV RB Leipzig odds traded on the markets is much smaller than one would have expected at the beginning of the season.
A home win for HSV is rated 3.10. The markets reward fighting power, stability in defence and the ability to make effective use of their own chances – the bookmakers therefore have a lot of confidence in the hosts.
The draw is 3.75. This reflects the assumption that Leipzig could dominate the game at times, but Hamburg will intervene – a shared point would be a logical variant.
An RBL away three-pointer, on the other hand, is listed at 2.10. Despite the Saxons’ role as favourites, the bookmakers emphasise that the game will not be a foregone conclusion, as HSV can certainly resist at home.
The current Bundesliga odds for this game thus illustrate a duel in which the favorite is clear, but the hosts have enough quality to keep the game open for a long time.
HSV vs RB Leipzig Match Analysis:
This game is of enormous importance for RB Leipzig. The recent form crisis has flushed the team out of the top four of the league, which is why every point now counts.
Especially in their upcoming trip to Hamburger SV at the Volksparkstadion, the Saxons will have to give their best performance in order to at least be able to secure participation in the next edition of the Champions League in the long term.
By the way: Despite the rather defensive orientation since the beginning of the season without too long periods of possession, they have surprisingly always had more possession than their respective opponents in the last seven away games, which shows that they have often deviated from their line recently.
One advantage for Leipzig is that Hamburg develops little danger from set pieces: With the fourth lowest xG value in such situations, they are not a big risk here.
The bigger concern for RBL coach Werner is therefore the open game situations, in which HSV have recently been very dangerous in front of their home crowd.
In my opinion, Hamburg will actually be able to set more than just occasional pinpricks on Sunday, but in the end, after various turning points, both teams should still be able to agree on a possible 1:1, 2:2 or 3:3 …
HSV Form Check
Hamburg remain stable at home and are unbeaten in seven home games – a run that includes wins against Bayern, Dortmund and Stuttgart.
What’s more, five home wins from eleven games have given the North Germans 19 points so far, which even makes them one of the stronger home teams in the entire Bundesliga.
After an initially weak start to the season with only 18 goals in the first 17 league games, Hamburg has made significant gains, especially offensively: In three of the last four games, they have scored at least two goals, a total of eight goals in this period.
In terms of personnel, Hamburg, on the other hand, still has to do without some important players. Albert Sambi Lokonga will be out for several weeks after a torn lateral ligament in his ankle.
Albert Gronbaek is also unavailable due to a thigh injury. Despite these absences, Hamburg has enough quality in the squad to maintain its home strength and continue the series.
RB Leipzig form check
Leipzig have shown inconsistent form this season and have only won one of their last five games. The most recent games in the Bundesliga against Wolfsburg and Dortmund both ended 2-2, so that the Saxons missed important points.
In general, Leipzig often control the ball and create numerous chances – they are second in the league in terms of average shots per game (16.22) and xG value (1.91) – but so far they have rarely managed to convert this superiority into success.
Meanwhile, the personnel situation at RBL remains tense. Midfielder Xaver Schlager will continue to be out for several weeks due to an adductor injury and will certainly miss the game against Hamburger SV.
Assan Ouedraogo is also unavailable until March, so coach and team will have to rely on alternatives in the squad.
