After seven years in the 2nd Bundesliga, Hamburger SV is back in the top flight of German soccer. But for how long? Some experts are already predicting that HSV will be relegated in 2026, which would see them return to the second division.
In every Bundesliga relegation prediction by experts and betting providers, Hamburger SV is counted among the relegation candidates from the outset.
What speaks in favor of HSV relegation in 2026 and what are the Hanseatic club’s chances of staying up?
This speaks in favor of HSV relegation in 2026
After seven years in the 2nd Bundesliga, Hamburger SV has finally made it back to the Bundesliga – and the Rothosen want to stay there. Which of course means: HSV’s relegation in 2026 must be prevented at all costs! Will they succeed? It’s not just the best sports betting providers who have their doubts before the start of the season.
The biggest question is whether Hamburger SV’s squad is strong enough to stay in the Bundesliga. The promotion team has undergone some prominent changes in several positions (it remains to be seen whether these will strengthen the team), but will that be enough?
All of the promotion heroes have been sold (e.g., Davie Selke, Ludovit Reis) or demoted (including Robert Glatzel). New additions include injury-prone striker Yussuf Poulsen, Nicolai Remberg, and Rayan Philippe.
Despite these personnel changes, HSV is still at the bottom of the Bundesliga market value ranking. Together with 1. FC Heidenheim, city rivals St. Pauli, and fellow promoted team 1. FC Köln, Hamburg has the lowest squad market value of all Bundesliga clubs at the start of the season.
This means that all 14 other teams are, at least nominally, significantly better equipped than the Rothosen and the other three relegation candidates.
From this perspective, the risk of HSV being relegated in 2026 is very high if everything goes according to plan and they are unable to leave the other three relegation candidates behind. Betting on HSV’s relegation would be possible with the Bet365 offer code. However, the betting credits can also be used for all other types of soccer bets.
There is also a question mark over coach Merlin Polzin in view of the personnel situation. He took over the team in November 2024 and then achieved the long-awaited promotion. But now he is working in the Bundesliga for the first time – and that is a completely different ball game to the second division.
The problem for Polzin – and also for his team, which is relatively inexperienced in the Bundesliga – could be that expectations in the Hanseatic city are very high. If things don’t go as planned and the team finds itself stuck in the relegation zone early on, things could get uncomfortable at the Volkspark.
Reasons against Hamburger SV being relegated
There are many reasons against Hamburger SV remaining in the Bundesliga – but are there also arguments in favor of HSV staying up in 2026?
In recent years, the promoted teams have performed very well in their first Bundesliga season. Take St. Pauli, for example, who finished 14th last season. The season before that, 1. FC Heidenheim did even better, finishing 8th (!).
Hamburger SV could do the same. With an emotional crowd in the stadium, team spirit, and determination, HSV has a good chance of staying in the league.
In addition to the four “relegation favorites” (Heidenheim, St. Pauli, HSV, and Cologne), other teams could also find themselves in the danger zone. The trio of Union Berlin, Werder Bremen, and Borussia Mönchengladbach, for example, are predicted to have a difficult season, and TSG Hoffenheim finished only 15th last season – just above the relegation spot.
