Australian Open in Melbourne, Round of 16, Sunday, January 19, 2025, 8:00 a.m.
Alexander Zverev has not shown any weakness at the Australian Open so far. In the third round, the German also marched through in three sets without a tiebreak. This time, however, last year’s semi-finalist had to give up two service games, but he could easily afford that.
With Ugo Humbert, the first major task is now waiting. The last encounter was not too long ago, we saw a clear victory for Zverev. I’ll tell you why I think the “under 40.5 games” bet from Tipwin is the best in my Humbert Zverev betting tip.
Optimal start for me at the Australian Open. I have made a prediction for all three Zverev matches in Melbourne so far, and all three odds were a complete success. Of course, I want to build on that in the round of 16.
The odds for this match are different. Zverev is still the clear favorite, but instead of 1.01 or 1.08 odds, we are seeing odds of 1.16 from the best betting providers this time. After all, his opponent is ranked 14th in the world and starts at 5.00.
Are we underrating Humbert and overrating Zverev? No! Zverev has only lost two service games, has not lost a set and has impressed in all respects so far. And then there was a match between him and Humbert in Paris just two months ago.
The 26-year-old got a proper beating, 6-2, 6-2 in the final in the French capital. Although the pressure on the Frenchman to win a Masters title in his own country was noticeable, in the end it was also a prime example of the Olympic champion.
Humbert won only five of 37 return points, was never in any danger in Zverev’s service games, a total difference in quality. In the end, Zverev, who took every second point on Humbert’s service, had almost twice as many points. And that’s worlds apart in tennis!
And whether the slower conditions outside on the Melbourne grounds suit Humbert? I dare to doubt it! I think Zverev is more variable, Zverev is the better defensive player and can counter better when moving.
We saw a few of those against Jacob Fearnley in the third round. A game that Zverev deliberately approached a little more conservatively from the baseline.
The reason for this was the wind, which was more noticeable in the smaller Margaret Court Arena than in the Rod Laver Arena, where Zverev was allowed to play in the rounds before.
The match plan paid off. In the end, he produced two fewer winners than the aggressive Briton, but he only had 15 unforced errors, while his opponent conceded 34 points unnecessarily.
Zverev also liked the rest of the statistics sheet after the match: he only lost every fourth point on his serve and again grabbed almost every second of his opponent’s when he had to swing. In total, he grabbed five breaks and used about every second chance.
And Humbert? He made it through the first two rounds just like Zverev, and had an easy path against Matteo Gigante and Hady Habib. Both players are ranked below 140. Arthur Fils was a completely different story.
He lost the first set against him and had to break back in the second set as well. When the score was 2-1 in sets for Humbert, Fils finally had to withdraw due to injury.
Due to the clear victory in Paris recently, I prefer the Humbert assignment for Zverev from a German point of view anyway. Fils had ruined his title defense in Hamburg last year and also gave him a close match on grass in Halle.
Zverev has only lost to Humbert once before, but that duel was three and a half years ago. In 2023, there was the second of three meetings, also at the hard court Masters in Paris, Zverev got the better of him in three sets.
The most important match for me is the clear last duel, as the German is currently playing at a similarly high level. Nevertheless, I can also imagine that he would lose a set against the 14-time three-set tennis player.
However, we only get 1.40 odds for the -1.5 handicap. Please keep an eye on our odds boost overview for this bet. Maybe something suitable will come in.
The under 40.5 game bet is ultimately similar and has a great rate at Tipwin. There you get tax-free bets and Tipwin is one of the few providers that still have over/under game bets in their program.
My Humbert Zverev betting tip
For me, Zverev really has everything going for him in this duel. He is clearly the better server and also secures significantly more points on his returns than his opponent. In addition, the German’s game is more adaptable.
He has mastered the baseline game, mixes in risk shots in doses and has now also anchored a good portion of wit in his repertoire for more unpredictability. Against Fearnley, he scored 14 out of 17 times at the net, and his volleys, like his forehand, are no longer weaknesses but weapons!
Zverev has the better overall package and currently has no recognizable Achilles’ heel. As already written in the last round, we are currently seeing the most complete Zverev of all time, who only just beat Humbert in November.
Maybe one or two sets will take longer, or Zverev will drop one. Ultimately, however, the match should be a fairly clear-cut affair. And that’s why I have odds that cover all the most likely scenarios in my opinion.
My Humbert Zverev tip: Under 40.5 games.
