Champions League, Semifinal, Second Leg, Tuesday, 06.05.2025 at 9:00 p.m.
It was a draw that gave no indication as to who will prevail in this semi-final. A draw that thrilled football fans around the world. A draw that promises a second leg with no let-up! My Inter Milan vs. Barcelona tip is likely to be a tough one after last week’s 3-3 draw!
The spectacular draw at the Olympic Stadium took our breath away, and now the two sides face each other again on Tuesday. And the big question is, of course: Who will deliver the decisive blow and grab the ticket to the final?
In fact, I’m betting on a contrasting performance in the second leg and think “under 3.5 goals” is a realistic bet. Barca don’t like playing in Italy, and I don’t expect the Nerazzurri defense to make so many mistakes again.
What’s more, both sides are missing a key goalscorer, which reduces the threat of goals. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a goalless draw on Tuesday, which would be a stark contrast to the first leg.
The stage is set at San Siro for two teams who, after the last few months, would both definitely deserve to reach the final. But that’s the way it is in football: in a knockout round, there can only be one winner.
The bookmakers’ prediction
Looking at the outright win odds at our ApplePay bookmakers, the home side is averaging 3.00. Barca, on the other hand, is only at 2.15, so it’s clear who the favorites are here.
Of course, you can also bet on the team advancing, which includes extra time and a possible penalty shootout. At 2.15 to 1.70, the Italians are the underdogs here as well.
A draw would lead to extra time – it’s a shame that wasn’t possible in the first leg. Of course, 90 minutes without a winner cannot be ruled out, with odds of 3.89 for that outcome.
AI prediction Inter Milan vs Barcelona: ChatGPT’s prediction
ChatGPT can basically pick a final and choose three different predictions for each semi-final. Of course, that’s what the AI did in this case. Do they match my personal opinion? Not necessarily.
One result bet made it onto the list, namely a 2-1 win for Inter. That’s entirely possible, especially since the Black and Blues haven’t lost a home game in the Champions League in 15 matches.
The middle risk range sees a bet that goes in a similar direction: Inter will advance, no matter how or when. Since 2003, the Italians have only reached the semifinals twice, reaching the final both times. Qualification for the final is therefore by no means out of the question.
The “both teams to score” bet is set for the AI, and the bookmakers also have odds of around 1.40. Although I’m not betting on a spectacle similar to the first leg, I think goals from both sides are very realistic.
Analysis: Inter Milan vs Barcelona
It was a 3-3 draw that didn’t really fit the statistics. Barcelona had 19 shots to Inter Milan’s 7 and 9 shots on target in the first leg, had 72 percent possession and played 683 passes (Inter 271).
And yet: first 0-2, then 2-3, they were behind twice. The Catalans couldn’t be satisfied after the 3-3 draw, because they know that the trip to Italy is not going to be much fun.
Five wins from 24 away games against Italian clubs, only two of eight matches won at San Siro – that doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that there will be cause for celebration on Tuesday.
All the better, then, is the fact that the offense is delivering. Forty goals have been scored, more than in any Champions League season since 2019/20 (when Bayern scored 43). Of course, there are a few more games to play this time around.
Odds analysis
A 0-0 draw is just as likely as a 3-3 draw; this match is really difficult to predict. With five wins from 24 games against Italian teams in the Champions League, Barca can’t exactly boast, so I think the “Double Chance 1X” is a sensible bet.
Betano is offering odds of 1.70 for this. The Catalans have also conceded a goal before half-time seven times in the Champions League. If Inter scores in the first half, the odds are 1.83.
It’s brutally difficult to predict the outcome of this match. I’m going to do it anyway and go for a 1-1 draw. At Bwin, the odds jump to 8.25. On top of that, you can also benefit from the Bwin voucher.
Is Barca’s offense struggling?
Barca holds the goal record themselves, by the way: in 1999/2000, the Catalans scored 45 times in a single season. With Rapinha (twelve goals) and Robert Lewandowski (eleven goals), they have two exceptional players in attack.
However, there is still a small question mark over Lewandowski’s availability, and Alejandro Balde is also doubtful for Tuesday. Jules Kounde, on the other hand, is definitely out. The team that Hansi Flick will send out onto the pitch is, of course, still extremely strong.
The fact that they conceded three goals in each of their last two Champions League games is naturally not pleasing to fans of defensive football. The La Liga leaders have already won the Supercopa and Copa del Rey, so they could be on the verge of the ultimate glory in 2024/25.
Inter stumble in the final stages of the season
Barca haven’t reached the Champions League final for exactly ten years, which is something the team naturally can’t let slide. Only in 2019 did they reach the semi-finals during this period, losing 4-0 to Liverpool after a 3-0 defeat in the first leg.
Squandering a lead (which almost happened in the quarter-finals against Dortmund) will at least not be a problem this time. Inter knows, of course, that the draw was a bit lucky from an Italian perspective.
The Italians were the worse team against Bayern Munich in both legs of the quarter-finals, but came through 2-1 and 2-2 thanks to clinical finishing and individual errors from the Munich side.
Seven goals conceded in the last four Champions League games? Unusual, because in the previous nine, they had conceded just one. Apart from the 2-2 draw against FCB, Inter have won all their home games.
The San Siro is a real fortress in the Champions League, with the Nerazzurri unbeaten here in 15 games. Nine of their last eleven semi-final games at home in international competition have been won.
After two slip-ups in the league, Inter regained their composure shortly before the clash with Barca, securing a narrow 1-0 win against Hellas Verona. However, they have lost the top spot in the table to SSC Napoli.
Of course, I also have to take a quick look at the personnel situation, because the fans know that there is a very bitter loss looming. Top striker Lautaro Martinez, who has scored eight times in this Champions League season, is struggling with a thigh injury and is doubtful for Tuesday’s game.
1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 and 0-0, the half-time results from the San Siro reflect the defensive strength. So is the tip “Barca won’t score in the first half” a good bet? It is, at Betano it comes in at strong odds of 2.15.
My Inter Milan Barcelona prediction:
Barcelona played better, but no one could prevent the three goals! It was a crazy first match against Inter Milan, which revealed strengths and weaknesses on both sides. Barca remains my favorite for the final, though.
It’s true that no one likes playing in Italy and Inter are very strong at home, but at the same time I can see a certain downward trend with the Nerazzurri. They’re out of the cup and no longer top of Serie A, which is taking its toll on their nerves.
All in all, I don’t think we’ll see two open games again. Instead, I’m expecting a more tactical encounter, which is reflected in my prediction:
There won’t be more than 3.5 goals on Tuesday!
