Champions League, Quarter-Final, Second Leg, Wednesday, 04/16/2024 at 21:00
BVB are out, and Bayern are also under pressure after the 1-2 first-leg defeat – they now need to respond in the Italian fashion capital.
The only question is: will Kompany find the right balance between risk and control, or will he make some questionable decisions again like he did last week?
In the first duel, FCB seemed erratic at times and allowed themselves to be counterattacked too easily. And the wonderful outside of the foot shot by Lautaro Martinez? For the gallery!
Nevertheless: even at the San Siro, the record champions are still extremely dangerous, and with an early goal, the momentum could tip. It will be a hot dance – with an open outcome.
With my Inter Milan Bayern tip, the focus is on a very specific accumulator with Double Chance 1X and BTS:
In fact, a comparison of Inter and Bayern suggests that home advantage may not be the deciding factor here.
In the last six duels between these two heavyweights, Inter have won three times and FCB three times – and it is striking that the home team have only won once.
This should give Vincent Kompany’s team plenty of encouragement. Even though the San Siro will be boiling, these encounters seem to be more influenced by the moment and the form on the day than by the atmosphere.
The bookmakers’ forecast
The big game is set to shake up the betting scene – because the Inter Milan v Bayern odds from sports betting providers suggest a close duel.
A home win for the Italians is trading at 2.65, which gives the Milanese a decent credit. For a draw, there’s 3.65 – not completely out of the question, but clearly on the edge.
Finally, the Munich team are slight favorites with odds of 2.55, so if you want to place a bet after registering with Betway, here is a brief overview of the starting position in the markets!
AI prediction Inter Milan vs Bayern: ChatGPT’s picks
The Inter Milan Bayern AI prediction from ChatGPT offers several betting options, but I found most of them to be “not good enough”.
For example, “Over 4.5 goals” is suggested at odds of around 5.30 for a high-paying bet. While that may sound tempting at first, this mark has only been surpassed once in the almost dozen direct duels so far – that’s too uncertain for me.
For a medium risk, the AI recommends “draw at half-time” at 2.29. This is an Inter Milan v Bayern tip that seems quite realistic considering that the first goal in the first leg was not scored until late in the 38th minute. A 0-0 or 1-1 at half-time is conceivable.
Finally, for a safe bet, the AI tip is “Inter qualifies in regular time” at 1.50. That seems possible to me, but the odds are too low for me to be able to speak of a really “safe tip” here.
Analysis: Inter Milan vs. Bayern
In my opinion, Vincent Kompany made a few questionable decisions in the first leg, which indirectly paved the way for the guests’ 2-1 away win at the Allianz Arena.
Interestingly, just a few days later, Bayern showed weaknesses again in the Bundesliga against Borussia Dortmund.
The well-deserved 2-2 draw was particularly disappointing because FCB was unable to dominate the game and Harry Kane missed an unusually large number of chances. It seemed as if they lacked the necessary bite – and, of course, the creativity of Jamal Musiala!
The Milan side ran out 3-1 winners against the Sardinians, and their dream of defending the title south of the Alps is looking increasingly likely.
It’s clear that the situation in the “Nerazzurri” fan camp couldn’t be better!
Odds analysis
“1:1 result bet” at 7.30 is an “intuitive” tip! There are games where you just have the feeling that it will end in a draw. With odds like this, it’s definitely worth considering, especially when you consider how evenly matched the teams are.
On the other hand, “1 goal: Inter Milan” at 2.02 is a tip based on data! Inter are always strong at home and have a clear preference for 1-0 leads, as seen in the first leg. They are ice-cold at the San Siro and know how to score an early goal.
Bayern: Very dark omen for Munich!
Was that a fateful first-leg defeat? According to the data analysts, it was! Bayern Munich have only successfully overcome a first-leg defeat in the last eight Champions League knock-out phases.
The only time they managed to advance after a 2-1 defeat in the first leg against Lazio was when they came from behind to win 3-1 on aggregate last season.
This statistic is a stark reminder of how difficult it is for Bayern to successfully navigate such a tricky situation.
Martinez with another dream goal against Bayern?
Incidentally, it wouldn’t be a crime to bet on Lautaro Martínez scoring again – and not just because of his superb outside of the foot shot in the first leg.
The Argentine forward has scored in his last four Champions League appearances and could become the first Inter Milan player to score in five consecutive games in the competition.
Would you have known? Only two players have scored more goals for Inter in a single Champions League season than Martínez has this season (7): Hernán Crespo in 2002/03 (9) and Samuel Eto’o in 2010/11 (8).
The home advantage of the Milan team is not insignificant for statistics fans. Inter has avoided defeat in its last 14 Champions League games (12 wins, 2 draws).
This streak is currently the longest active run in the Champions League, after they were able to end Bayern Munich’s 22-game winning streak at the Allianz Arena in the quarter-final first leg a week ago.
This impressive record shows how strong Inter are at home and how difficult it is for opponents to win in Milan.
Personally, I don’t think the chances of a Milan win are exactly huge, but in the end I can still imagine a 1:1 or even a 2:2 that would be enough for them to advance. In any case, it will be a game on a knife’s edge again!
My Inter Milan Bayern tip:
It will be a very tough game that might only pick up speed in the second half.
I rate the Italians as experienced enough to secure their place in the semi-finals within 90 minutes.
Because the injury to Jamal Musiala limits the creative impulses of the record champions and could prove to be disastrous against these tough Italians.
Ultimately, my Inter Milan vs Bayern tip is: Double chance 1X & both teams to score.
