Italy – Estonia Tip World Cup Qualifier, Matchday 5 on Friday, 09/05/25 at 8:45 p.m.
In Italy, it is the fate of eleven-year-old children not to know what it means to cheer on the “Squadra Azzurra” at the World Cup – that’s how long it has been since the 2006 world champions last appeared in a final tournament.
That is set to change for the 2026 World Cup, but the situation is tricky! Can Gennaro Gattuso actually accomplish this seemingly easy task in his debut on the Italian bench?
According to my Italy vs. Estonia prediction, there will definitely be difficulties against this opponent, so I’m betting the first-class Merkur Bet bonus on it – even if the Balts don’t bring much to the table in terms of play!
My Italy vs. Estonia tip: ITA will not win both halves!
These are the arguments for my tip:
- Italy is under tremendous pressure!
- Gattuso is facing a difficult debut!
- Estonia only lost 0-1 to Norway in June!
Italy vs. Estonia AI predictions:
Many German betting providers are expecting a flood of goals, but I can also well imagine that many of Italy’s attacks will initially come to nothing. ChatGPT agrees with me on this.
As part of its Italy vs. Estonia AI prediction, the AI assistant recommended that I bet on a lucrative 0-0 halftime score, which would almost quintuple my stake if successful.
It’s definitely not a safe bet, but it makes a lot of sense in terms of the risk-reward ratio.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Italy win |
Draw |
Estonia win |
| 87.5% |
8.7% |
3.8% |
Estonia has conceded at least three goals in each of its last six international matches against nations ranked in the top 30 of the FIFA world rankings. Nevertheless, I agree with the second AI suggestion that Italy will score less than 3.5 goals.
Under 4.5 goals at odds of around 1.50 is ultimately declared a relatively safe bet – and in my opinion, it fully deserves this designation. Because I simply don’t see the hosts winning this game by a landslide, not in their current situation!
What you need to consider when betting on Italy vs. Estonia
- 8 of Italy’s last 10 games ended with over 2.5 goals.
- Only one of Italy’s last 5 games saw more than three yellow cards.
- Five of Estonia’s last six games were tied at halftime.
- Estonia conceded at least three goals in six of their last nine games against top 30 teams.
