Italy – Israel Tip World Cup Qualifier, Group I, Matchday 6, 10/14/2025 at 8:45 p.m.
How I enjoyed the first leg between these two nations! An epic 5:4, in which the Squadra Azzurra was only able to turn the game in their favor with a final burst of energy.
In fact, in my Italy Israel prediction, I expect that if the multiple world champions prevail again, it will be in the same way as in the last three encounters against their upcoming opponents – despite conceding a goal!
The Azzurri rarely manage to keep a clean sheet anyway – and after Donnarumma’s recent blunder against Estonia, I would certainly not bet on him keeping a clean sheet with a verified betting provider!
Italy vs. Israel AI predictions:
Perhaps I was too influenced by the nine goals in the first leg, but our latest Italy vs. Israel AI prediction also predicts almost exactly 5 goals.
Consequently, I have no hesitation in presenting the Over 4.5 goals selection in the Interwetten app at exciting odds of around 3.25 as a promising value bet suggestion.
This target, which may seem daring at first glance, could ultimately be achieved in the Israelis’ third international match in a row.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Italy win |
Draw |
Israel win |
| 79.1% |
13.6% |
7.3% |
Meanwhile, betting on Israel to score over 1.5 goals is not for the faint-hearted. However, the odds will multiply your stake fivefold, making it an attractive option for profit-oriented value bet hunters.
After all, who would have thought that the Israelis would score four goals in the first leg against Italy?
Admittedly, they looked lackluster against Norway recently, but they could still land a punch or two in the return leg in beautiful Udine. Especially since it’s their last chance to qualify for the 2026 World Cup.
Goal: If successful, Pio Esposito will turn a $1 bet into almost $2, and in my opinion, the youngster is indeed a very promising candidate for this type of bet.
With Moise Kean having to leave the game against Estonia due to injury, the wonder boy could step into the spotlight from the start on Tuesday.
And his wonderful volley in the victory over the Balts was already quite spectacular.
What you need to know about Italy vs. Israel betting
- Italy’s last six home goals have all been scored in the second half.
- Five of Israel’s last six games have ended with at least four goals.
- Israel has scored at least two goals in five of its last six competitive games.
- The combined xG value in the first leg was 3.39, but 9 goals were scored nonetheless.
