Jagiellonia Bialystok – Fiorentina Tip Conference League, play-offs first leg on Thursday, 19.02.2026 at 21:00 CET
Knowledgeable and trustworthy bookmakers like Betano no no longer underestimate the Poles, unfortunately. Because the only slight outsider role with regard to the exchange of blows with the two-time UECL finalist presents me with a difficult decision.
If the Jagiellonia Białystok odds were around 4.00 to 5.00, then I would speak of “value” among Eastern Europeans. But the actually traded home win odds of about 3.35 inspire me far less.
In the end, a Jagiellonia Bialystok Fiorentina tip on 1st Goal & Win: Fiorentina at values around 2.45 is probably the better decision against the background of recent events.
Because I saw “La Viola” play the best game in the calendar year 2026 in many respects against FC Como at the weekend!
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Fiorentina AI predictions:
Our Jagiellonia Bialystok Fiorentina AI prediction recommends a simple draw bet at odds of around 3.55 as part of a classic 1X2 bet.
This is a bit more sympathetic to me than a home win bet on the Poles, but with almost identical odds I feel rather uncomfortable.
Betting on a draw is always difficult, and here I would have preferred odds of about 4.00 upwards, which I do not get from any German betting provider on the markets.
The bottom line is that I prefer to stick to a win bet on Fiorentina, which is also missing players, but should not act as inhibited as the host. Because Jagiellonia is missing both Pululu and Romanczuk due to red and yellow suspensions.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Win Jagiellonia Bialystok |
Draw |
Win Fiorentina |
| 28% |
26.4% |
45.6% |
Over 2.5 goals & both teams score is another sympathetic AI suggestion at odds around 2.20, which I personally would have enriched only with a win tip on ACF Fiorentina.
However, if we ignore this small shortcoming, this is still a really good suggestion that seems statistically well-founded.
Because in each of the last eight competitive games of the Italians, the condition “BTS” has been met. Furthermore, ACF’s offense has also been working better and better recently, as Paolo Vanoli’s team has scored 2+ goals of their own in three of their last four away games.
That’s why I’m secretly expecting a 2-1 or even 3-1 win for the two-time UECL finalist.
What you need to know about Jagiellonia Bialystok vs. Fiorentina betting
- Goal guarantee for the Viola: In each of Fiorentina’s last eight competitive games, the condition “Both Teams to Score” (BTTS) applied – the defense is vulnerable under Vanoli, while the offense delivers consistently
- Strong attacking line away from home: Fiorentina have scored at least two goals of their own in three of their last four away games; a trend that statistically substantiates the tip on “Over 2.5 goals & both score” (odds approx. 3.33)
- Jagiellonia’s home hopes: The Poles were stable in the group stage, especially at home, but now face a two-time UECL finalist who brings enormous individual quality with players like Moise Kean (7 goals this season)
- Due to the statistical vulnerability of both defensive lines and the offensive orientation of Raffaele Palladino, there are many indications of a high-scoring result such as a 2-1 or 3-1 defeat from the hosts’ point of view
