Copa del Rey, 1st round, Thursday, 21.11.2024 at 21:00
There is a massive difference in quality between Jove Espanol San Vicente and Real Sociedad. The fifth division side welcome the country’s top team in the first round of the Copa del Rey.
The match had to be postponed due to the flood disaster and will now take place directly after the international break. There’s no question in my mind that San Sebastian will progress, but what will the result be?
I expect the visitors to dominate from start to finish. In my Jove Real Sociedad betting tip, I’m taking odds of over 1.90 at Winamax for the LaLiga club to win both halves.
“The Jove players are facing the most high-profile opponent and the biggest media interest of their careers this Thursday,” the fifth division club itself writes on its website ahead of the cup match against Sociedad.
The game will not be played at the home ground, but at the larger Jose Rico Perez Stadium, much to the delight of the visitors.
Jove normally play their home games on artificial turf, which would have been unusual for a La Liga team and would have put me off my bet
Some top clubs have struggled on this surface. A mixture of an unfamiliar surface and a reshuffled squad to preserve the stars for the more important games can make the cup task against an amateur club more complicated than desired.
For FC Jove, it is not only special to play against a La Liga club, but to be involved in the Copa del Rey in general. The last time the club from the Valencia region took part was in 1979/80.
A small difference to San Sebastian, Real have already won the cup three times, most recently in the 2021 final against Athletic Bilbao. The start to this season has been poor so far, only eighth place and already six points behind the Champions League places.
Mikel Oyarzabal’s side are also lagging behind in the Europa League. However, the 1-0 win against high-flyers Barcelona before the international break gave them a boost, their second three-pointer in a row after a 2-0 win against Sevilla.
Internationally, they have just one win to their name after four games and, as things stand, would not be enough to reach the intermediate round, only 25th place.
We can expect a completely different match against San Vicente, the team qualified for the cup by finishing second in their division. However, it was not enough for promotion in the playoffs.
Jove got off to a good start this season, going four games unbeaten and winning three of them. However, this was followed by four defeats in a row, after which play was suspended for almost a month due to the floods.
Last weekend they started again with a 1-1 draw against Soneja. Five games without a win, hardly any rhythm after the long break and with the match being moved to the big stadium, no real home game either, that will be difficult for the fifth division team…
I’m all the more surprised that Sociedad are still being offered odds of 1.11 to win, which is not bad at all. The draw is still in single digits at 8.00, the surprise win for Jove is at 19.0.
The -1 handicap for San Sebastian has 1.40 odds at Winamax, where you can get a free bet credit of 100 euros after registering.
The odds are still too low for me, instead I have my eye on the bet that the visitors will win both halves, for which a whopping 1.92 awaits. Even with a B line-up, the teams are still worlds apart in footballing terms.
And Jove have not exactly been able to draw much confidence from recent results. Their last win came on September 29.
In addition, San Sebastian have a full squad to choose from. Only the long-term injured Hamari Traore is missing.
Real Sociedad’s away record is not bad either. The club has only lost one of its three matches in the Europa League. In the league, they have won three and lost just one of their six games.
Conclusion: Jove have only played one match in November and have been waiting around two months for a win. The cup is not played at home, but in the large Jose Rico Perez Stadium with the much better pitch, which is an advantage for Real Sociedad.
San Sebastian have won their last two league games, before the international break against Barca, and have not cut a bad figure away from home so far.
I expect them to dominate both halves against the underdogs, who are playing in the cup for the first time since 1979/80. Although Sociedad will rotate, they have a clear quality advantage thanks to their wide squad, even with their second string.
My Jove Real Sociedad tip: Real Sociedad win both halves
