Serie A, Sunday, 04/27/2025, 6:00 p.m.
The battle for Champions League spots in Serie A is heating up. Inter and Napoli are practically through. Behind them, it’s pretty tight. Record champions Juve are currently only in fifth place. On Sunday evening, only three points will count against the bottom team in the table.
I think the Old Lady can do it and I don’t expect it to be a close affair. In my Juventus Monza prediction, I’m therefore going for a handicap bet from Interwetten, namely 0:1.
33 games and only two wins. AC Milan will be relegated to Serie B without a whimper, eleven points adrift of safety going into the 34th matchday, ten points behind the penultimate team in the championship.
At least they are second from bottom if we look at the isolated goal and goals against statistics. Nevertheless, they share the worst goal difference with Lecce. Monza have lost four in a row, with one win and four draws from 16 games away from home.
So is the game against Juve just a question of how badly they lose? I assume so. Juve starts at 1.17, Monza has odds of 16.0, and our betting providers that accept Apple Pay as a payment method offer 7.25 for a draw.
Nothing attractive there, but it’s a different story if we go for the first handicap level and bag a Juve win. That puts us above the 1.50 mark. A great price, especially as the visitors are missing their most important player.
That’s captain Matteo Pessina. Add to that further absences in midfield, and the task against Randal Kolo Muani and Co. is not exactly made any easier.
Although the Bianconeri have already been eliminated from the Champions League and no longer have the burden of a double header, they are struggling in Serie A.
They have only won two of their last five games, but those were at home against Genoa and Lecce.
Away from home, they lost 3-0 to Fiorentina, drew 1-1 with AS Roma and most recently lost 1-0 to Parma. Yes, the matches weren’t really that impressive, especially as they only kept a clean sheet once in this run.
So, is this a case for both teams to score? After all, the odds are a whopping 2.55! I had this bet on my shortlist, but in the end, Monza’s recent performances were simply not enough for me. I think a 2-0 or 3-0 win for Juve is more likely.
If you have a free bet left, you could take a chance on the home team winning, which would give you good odds for a three-way bet. I can recommend Winamax, for example. Newcomers can get a free bet budget of up to $100.
I was also put off by the fact that the Old Lady isn’t exactly conceding goals left, right, and center at home, often keeping clean sheets. Overall, Igor Tudor’s team, who only took over in March, has conceded 15 goals in 17 games.
And Monza? In their last 25 league games, they have only failed to concede a goal in February’s 0-0 draw with Lecce. They have conceded 18 goals in their last eight games alone.
This is no coincidence. Monza concedes the most shots in the league, with 487 already approaching the 500 mark.
At the same time, the bottom team has created the fewest chances, while Juve is way up there in that ranking.
In head-to-head matches, the Turin side has four wins from six games, with Monza coming out on top twice. Interestingly, Juve has scored twice in all of its wins. Juve won the first leg 2-1, but the visitors struggled.
In the end, the match could easily have ended in a draw. I expect a different performance at home. Especially since Monza really got the final blow towards Serie B from Napoli last week.
I’m not letting myself get rattled when it comes to my betting tip, even when I look at Juve’s injury list.
There are a few important names missing, but ultimately there is definitely still enough quality to beat Monza.
Conclusion: Juve are fighting for Champions League places and Monza’s relegation is only a matter of time. AC Milan have to finish the season without their captain and have further absences in midfield.
I firmly believe that the hosts will be able to capitalize on this and that we will see a difference in class. In the end, it could be 2-0, 3-0, or 3-1. That’s why I’m going to take a chance on the handicap!
Juventus to win with a handicap of -1.
