The last time 1. FC Kaiserslautern were in the Bundesliga was in the 2011/12 season. Will FCK be promoted this year and return to the Belle Etage of German soccer?
There is a great longing in the Palatinate for the Bundesliga-less time at Betzenberg to finally come to an end after a total of eight years in the second tier and even four years in the third division for the “Red Devils”.
What are the reasons for FCK’s promotion to the Bundesliga in 2025 and why the Bundesliga return has not (yet) worked out this year?
Why FCK’s promotion in 2025 will work out
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern be back in the Bundesliga in the new season? The chance is there – especially if you look at the promoted teams of recent years.
In recent seasons, teams have repeatedly been promoted that were NOT actually among the big favorites for promotion. In the 2023/24 season, St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel were promoted and the year before, 1. FC Heidenheim did the same.
This trio made it into the Bundesliga with commitment, passion and willpower. With these qualities, Lautern could also achieve promotion.
In addition, the “Red Devils” have a real cauldron in their Betzenberg, which could be a decisive factor in the final spurt of the promotion race.
In mid-March, Lautern did NOT lose 11 of 13 home games (6 wins, 5 draws). With this home strength, FCK could achieve promotion in 2025.
What’s more, the team has also done quite well away from home so far, with six wins and two draws from the 13 away games so far (as of March 21).
Which could also be a good argument for FCK’s promotion in 2025: The offense is working! After 26 match days, 46 goals have been scored
Kaiserslautern promotion prediction: No, it won’t work (yet)
There are also some arguments in the FCK promotion prediction that speak against a Bundesliga return of 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
In the market value table of the 18 second division teams, Lautern is only in 7th place. This means that six teams are nominally stronger than the “Red Devils”. These include promotion favorites Hamburger SV, 1. FC Köln, Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96.
However, the truth is that Hertha BSC, the team with the second-highest squad market value, is in the bottom third of the table and is playing against relegation. And: FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg, two teams with an even lower squad market value than FCK, are in contention for promotion after 26 match days.
Ultimately, however, the better quality of the actual promotion favorites could prevail. Above all, HSV and 1. FC Köln are favorites here.
Place 3 could already be a threat to FCK’s Bundesliga promotion – because: Union Berlin were last promoted to the Bundesliga from the relegation spot in 2019. This also means that the Bundesliga club has won each of the last five relegation duels.
In all other seasons, at least 60 points were required for a relegation place and at least 63 for the runners-up spot.
Another argument in the Kaiserslautern promotion forecast 2025 is the team’s performance. After 25 match days, the “Red Devils” had run a total of 2,833.08 kilometers. That is the fourth-lowest figure – only Hannover, Nuremberg and Schalke have run fewer kilometers.
Hamburger SV, 1. FC Köln and the underdogs Magdeburg and Elversberg have covered significantly more kilometers than FCK up to matchday 25.
In the end, this factor could perhaps speak against FCK’s promotion to the Bundesliga in 2025…
