Europa League Quali, 1st round, second leg, Thursday, 18.07.2024 at 16:30
As soon as EURO 2024 is over, the focus turns to the new European Cup season. And indeed, the 2024/25 Europa League season has already begun with the first qualifying round.
With a 2:0 win from the first leg behind them, Wisla Krakow will travel to KF Llapi in Kosovo and want to progress to the next round without any major upsets.
In my Llapi Krakow betting tip, I recommend the bet “Double chance 1X”, as I do not expect the match to end with an away win due to the special starting position
You don’t have to be a clairvoyant to predict that KF Llapi won’t end up in the Europa League group stage.
In fact, it is highly likely that the Kosovars will not be able to overturn the first leg deficit against Wisla Krakow and will have to bow out in the first qualifying round.
However, this should not be too tragic from KF’s point of view. After all, they are almost a blank slate on the international stage
This is only Llapi’s third ever appearance in a European Cup qualifier and they are still waiting to win their first competitive international match.
In this sense, participation in the Europa League should already be seen as a major success, especially as they were unable to keep pace with champions Ballkani in the Kosovan league last season.
The latest test match results have been correspondingly mixed. A simple calculation can be made here: If you lose 2-0 to FC Struga (North Macedonia), you are at best in the third tier in international comparison.
If I had to decide on a classic 1×2 bet for the game against Krakow, I would undoubtedly choose the 3.00 odds for a draw at Sunmaker Germany, for example.
As Wisla don’t necessarily have to win to progress, I could also imagine a scenario in which Llapi take a fortunate lead through a set-piece and Krakow overcome the narrow defeat without any major problems.
And this is where my main tip “Double chance 1X” comes into play, which covers both a home win and a draw
If you take a closer look at Wisla Krakow, you’ll quickly realize that the Poles have had quite a curious pre-season.
They were unable to get involved in the promotion battle in the second Polish league and only finished in 10th place. At the same time, however, they made it to the cup final, in which Szczecin was defeated 2:1 after extra time.
Similarities to 1. FC Kaiserslautern are obvious, even if the Lauterers were ultimately beaten by Bayer Leverkusen in the DFB Cup final
In comparison with Llapi, Krakow generally has much more international experience.
In fact, the Poles were regulars in the UEFA Cup between 1998 and 2008 and even made it to the round of 16 in the 2002/03 season.
There they were able to keep pace with Lazio Roma and were only narrowly beaten in the end (3:3, 1:2).
The last time they appeared in the Europa League was in the 2011/12 season, where they lost to Standard Liège in the second round (1:1, 0:0).
You can see: Lazio Roma, Standard Liège – these are opponents that KF Llapi can only dream of up to this point.
Unsurprisingly, the direct comparison leads to nowhere. Wisla Krakow faced an opponent from Kosovo for the first time ever in the first leg against Llapi
For KF, it was only their fifth ever international match.
If we take a closer look at the statistics from the first leg, however, we could come to the conclusion that Krakow’s success was even too low.
The Poles fired a total of 17 shots, while Llapi only managed 6. If Wisla score more than one goal in the second leg, the Llapi Krakow odds will climb to a lucrative 2.00 even without an odds boost
Conclusion: It’s not a duel à la “David versus Goliath”. Ultimately, however, Wisla Krakow is the better team than KF Llapi.
I therefore assume that the Poles will also dominate the second leg, but won’t play with the same consistency in the end due to their lead in the first leg.
A realistic scenario could even result in a narrow victory for the home side, which would still see the Poles advance to the second qualifying round.
My Llapi Krakow betting tip is: Double chance 1X
