Bundesliga matchday 17, Tuesday, 14.01.2025 at 18:30
Don’t be fooled by the narrow defeat of the “Storks” on paper!
The mood of optimism that prevailed shortly before Christmas after the resounding victory over Augsburg was nowhere to be seen in the northerners’ first Bundesliga outing of 2025.
Although every game starts at 0-0, if the newly promoted side can produce a similarly clumsy display before the break as they did against the Black Forest side, Borussia’s fans, who have not exactly been spoiled by recent success, should finally have reason to cheer again this evening.
In my Kiel Dortmund tip for the 17th Bundesliga matchday, I don’t expect Nuri Sahin’s squad to disappoint the Black & Yellows once again.
Mario Basler was harshly critical of the Dortmund coach a few days ago – and he’s not entirely wrong. Borussia completely missed the start against the reigning German champions.
On Tuesday, however, a club that does not have the same playing resources as the “Werkself” awaits in the English week.
And although Borussia, who are short of substitutes, will not be playing in their own stadium, my Kiel Dortmund tip is that they should not return from their trip to the Baltic Sea with less than three points.
Anything else would prevent me from successfully implementing my sports betting bonus and at the same time would only make Nuri Sahin come under even more criticism.
The betting providers’ forecast?
The Kiel Dortmund odds that have just been circulated by the German betting providers illustrate the clear balance of power between the promoted team and the Champions League participant.
With odds of 6.00 for a home win for Kiel, the bookmakers clearly see the team from the north as the underdog.
On the other hand, the 1.47 for a Dortmund win reflects the clear favoritism of the Westphalians, who are short on substitutes!
KI prediction Kiel vs Dortmund: ChatGPT
Before the Champions League league phase enters its decisive phase, I had ChatGPT make an independent Kiel Dortmund AI prediction.
But already the first tip, “BVB win with handicap -2”, which is classified as risky, should in my opinion be directly rejected by you!
The odds of 3.90 are tempting, but I think a 2:1 or 3:1 for Dortmund is more likely than a thumping victory. Therefore, the handicap has been set too high in my opinion.
On the other hand, I really like the second suggestion with a medium risk, “BVB win & both score”.
It’s a strong bet, and based on the current form and the way both teams are playing, it could actually result in a win for Dortmund with the promoted team scoring a follow-up or consolation goal at the same time.
Meanwhile, the last of the three tips “Both score” actually seems very safe to me. Dortmund often struggle to play to nil – and without Schlotterbeck, Can, Gross and Anton, goalkeeper Kobel should certainly not be able to collect a clean sheet on Tuesday!
Analysis: Kiel vs Dortmund
The winter break probably came at the worst possible time for Holstein Kiel.
After the impressive 5-1 win over Augsburg, which marked the end of a five-game losing streak, the “Storks” lost 3-2 to Freiburg at the weekend, despite a dramatic comeback in the final minutes when the game had long been decided.
Captain Lewis Holtby admitted that the result left a “bitter” feeling.
Soccer fans on the Baltic Sea are therefore not without reason fearing for their team’s survival in the league, but could take some comfort from the fact that both victories of the season were celebrated at home.
Dortmund will not only travel to the Baltic Sea with fewer substitutes, but also look back on a mixed form, as they have not exactly pulled up trees recently with only one win from the last six games (3 draws, 2 defeats).
Last Friday’s 3-2 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen prompted even coach Nuri Şahin to criticize his team’s defensive performance.
What’s more, BVB have now even dropped out of the top six and their away record, with just one win from their last nine games, has raised doubts among independent observers and critics about a successful trip to the Baltic Sea.
Rating Analysis
The odds of 1.92 for a goal from Guirassy are definitely worth a look, especially after he scored against Leverkusen last time out.
The Guinean has put in consistently strong performances this season and has established himself as one of the most dangerous attackers in the Bundesliga. So he could be the one to go on the attack against Kiel!
The result bets for a 2:1 or 3:1 BVB win at average odds of 8.50 and 10.0 are definitely something for the more risk-averse sports betting fans among you.
The values, as you can see, are quite high, which increases the potential for a good payout – but of course the risk is also correspondingly higher.
But for those who are willing to take the risk, this Kiel Dortmund tip could be just the one for you given the failures! I can’t imagine an even bigger win in Borussia’s favor anyway.
Kiel vs Dortmund odds: BVB can’t play to nil!
Kiel will have to do more than just late result cosmetics like against Freiburg if they want to take something countable with them this time.
However, Borussia Dortmund are known for giving small gifts to their opponents even in games like this, which could give Kiel hope.
Watch out: In Borussia’s last 14 Bundesliga matches, the respective opponent was able to score at least one goal in 13 of them – a clear indicator that BVB is not always completely stable in defense.
This could therefore be an additional chance for Kiel to at least improve their goal tally in this difficult match.
Meanwhile, you have the opportunity to claim the new customer bonus from NEO.bet. Click on the graphic, register and enjoy €10 for your bets.
BVB: A devastating wave of flu has hit the club!
Guirassy could be both goalscorer and lucky charm this Tuesday. The striker has only lost three of his last 23 Bundesliga games in which he has scored (19 wins, 1 draw).
As far as direct comparisons are concerned, “Kiel v Dortmund” has only ever been played in the DFB Cup, with BVB winning both encounters with clear results (4:0 and 5:0).
But such past results should not be overrated when the teams meet again on Tuesday.
However, Dortmund are currently facing serious challenges. A flu epidemic has the club firmly in its grip and six key players – including Schlotterbeck, Anton and Can – have already been ruled out against Leverkusen.
This not only makes for a massive weakening on the pitch, but also a dangerous situation in the table.
Coach Sahin recently stated that he does not expect any improvement before Tuesday and that there is little chance of the players recovering quickly.
In the midst of these difficult circumstances, Borussia Dortmund face a crucial away match in Kiel, which they should actually win to avoid slipping further down the table.
However, the flu epidemic and weakness on the road could make this task considerably more difficult. At a time when the team urgently needs to score points, it is clear how fragile Dortmund’s role as favorites has become.
I therefore remain of the opinion that if Borussia come out on top, it will probably be by a very narrow margin.
My Kiel Dortmund tip:
In view of the flu epidemic that has gripped BVB, it will be a hot dance. Although I still expect Borussia to come out on top, I want to play it safe in my Kiel Dortmund prediction.
Because several key players in the Dortmund defense will be missing and Pascal Gross is still suspended, conceding goals seems unavoidable on this Bundesliga matchday.
In combination with the NEO.bet promotion code, I dare to make a Kiel Dortmund betting tip, which looks like this: Over 2.5 goals & Both teams to score!
