Bundesliga 18th matchday, Saturday, 18/01/2025 at 3:30 pm
Kiel pulled off a coup against Dortmund during the week, managing to take a sensational 3-0 lead into the break and secure their third victory. Now an important battle against the drop is coming up, with the Kraichgauer coming!
And Holstein has the opportunity to draw level with a win, or even take the lead by two goals, and initially avoid the direct relegation spot. Given the crisis at the visitors, points are on the cards, aren’t they?
I prefer to avoid an initial bet due to the problems in the KSV defense and take on the odds at NEO.bet that both teams will score a goal. Read more in my Kiel Hoffenheim betting tip!
In the last few minutes, Kiel had to hold out for the 3-2 lead with a man less. But instead of the late equalizer, we saw a fourth goal for the promoted team, Jan-Fiete Arp scored just before the halfway line with a long-range shot on the empty goal.
For Kiel, it was their second home win in a row and their most significant Bundesliga moment to date. For the Champions League participants, BVB, on the other hand, it was a disgrace. Dortmund coach Nuri Sahin is now facing elimination. Kiel, on the other hand, are on a roll.
Our betting providers expect a close game between Kiel and Hoffenheim. The odds are close. On paper, the guests have the more notable personnel, but Kiel have been playing well and have scored in each of their last five Bundesliga games.
Our betting providers primarily expect a close game between Kiel and Hoffenheim. The odds for a win are close. On paper, the guests have the more notable personnel in their ranks, but despite the crisis in results, they are given the very slight favorite role of 2.40.
Kiel starts the game at 2.95, with a draw assigned to 3.70.
The Nordclub brings the significantly better form, celebrated all victories at home and meets a team that could not win nine games in a row. I find the “double chance 1X” at 1.60 highly interesting. The AI too?
KI-Prognose Kiel vs. Hoffenheim: That’s what ChatGPT tips
In fact, ChatGPT’s selection tends towards Hoffenheim. For the lower-risk variant, it abstains from the outcome, as I do with my final bet, and suggests the “Over 2.5 goals” classic.
For this market, we get good odds above the 1.60 mark even on sports betting sites without tax. The medium risk level is the odds that TSG will score the first goal of the match.
I don’t think much of the bet, after all, Hoffenheim didn’t score in any of the last nine competitive games. In 2025, Hoffenheim is still waiting to score its first goal.
I actually prefer the option with the title “high risk”. Of the more difficult odds, the artificial intelligence finds the half-time/final score tip X/2 hot. This is where a 6.00 quote awaits.
I don’t think it’s unlikely that the game will be closely contested for a long time and that a lucky punch at the end will make the difference. Nevertheless, I would only consider the odds, which are around 6.00, with a free bet at most.
Analysis: Kiel vs. Hoffenheim
There is currently a lot of movement in the bottom of the table. Not only Kiel won during the English week, but also Bochum, who were still far behind a few weeks ago, were awarded three points at the green table after the lighter throw and now even have eleven points.
This means that VfL are level on points with Kiel, in 14th place, and just three points behind St. Pauli. It’s all to play for again!
Alongside Union Berlin, Hoffenheim is currently the Bundesliga’s problem child. As already mentioned, TSG has not won in nine competitive games.
At the start of the year, Christian Ilzer’s team didn’t perform badly. They had a few chances without putting Wolfsburg under pressure for a long time after conceding an early goal. The score remained 0-1.
After the miserable results, the away game in the Allianz Arena came at what I would consider a good time. That means the most difficult match of the year in the context of the crisis is off the table. Will the turnaround finally happen against Kiel?
Odds Analysis
Ilzer got off to a good start after taking over from Pellegrino Matarazzo, winning 4-3 against RB Leipzig. But that remains the only victory under his leadership so far. Six defeats and three draws followed.
In his ten matches on the sidelines, only against Steaua Bucharest did he keep a clean sheet, and probably only because, given the situation in the table, a point was absolutely sufficient for the Romanians away from home and they were not pushing for a goal.
In terms of goals conceded, Kiel, the side that has conceded the most, will face the third-weakest defense, which concedes an average of two goals per game. I definitely have goals on the slip of paper.
The “Over 2.5 goals” of the AI is definitely a good choice, but I find the goal of both teams, the odds are just under it and a 1-1 would be covered, a clear 3-0 or 4-0, for example, I consider much more unrealistic.
Due to the many goals in the Kiel games, 1.54 for the hit in both halves is also a strong bet.
Kiel vs. Hoffenheim: Nobody wants to defend!
While Hoffenheim was still able to put up a good fight against Wolfsburg, the game against Bayern was quickly decided. After twelve minutes, the score was already 0-2. With just five shots, Hoffenheim remained harmless until the end.
In view of the disastrous winter record with no wins in two months and the fact that Kiel could overtake them with a win, the visitors would actually be better off with a draw on Saturday.
But I definitely don’t expect the guests to play for a draw, even though respect for the storks has definitely increased after their success against Dortmund.
TSG knows that they are playing against the weakest defense in the league and that their own strengths are not in defense. The same applies to KSV. That’s why it should be a very interesting game with plenty of chances.
The new customer bonus from NEO.bet is also interesting. Just click on the graphic, register and collect 10 euros for your bets.
Matching the number of goals conceded, Kiel has so far also had to endure the most shots and finishes on target. Hoffenheim is not far behind.
Overall, the Kraichgauer have only survived two of the 17 league games without conceding a goal, in the respective goalless draws against Augsburg and Heidenheim, both away, where they are the only team in the league, along with Kiel, not to have recorded a win.
At least Hoffenheim has only lost four draws, or half of their away games.
Since my tip is all about goals, here’s another fun fact: With 68 goals in 17 games, Kiel fans saw the highest-scoring games in the Bundesliga on average, or 4.0 goals on average to be precise!
Four times in a row, we saw both teams score. Before the 4-2 loss to BVB, Kiel turned up again in the final stages against Freiburg, only to lose 3-2. Before the turn of the year, they lost 4-1 to Gladbach and then won 5-1 against Augsburg.
Striker Phil Harres is in impressive form, scoring five goals in his last three games. It’s quite a story: he only moved from Homburg, who play in the fourth division, to Schleswig-Holstein this summer! He has a total of seven goals and one assist from ten appearances.
His goal-scoring rate against Hoffenheim is a tasty 3.25. He has scored in five of the last six games with Kiel.
My Kiel Hoffenheim Tip:
I’m really looking forward to this basement battle! Hoffenheim has the better players on paper, but is in crisis. TSG has been waiting for a win for two months and Kiel has won their last two home games, getting nine of their 11 points at home.
The 4-2 win against Dortmund was a real confidence booster. However, the defense continues to be problematic, with KSV already conceding five goals in 2025. A prime example was the 3-1 consolation goal by Givoanni Reyna, who was allowed to score for BVB without any danger.
Numerous absences in the center do not make the task any easier, but TSG also has to contend with personnel compromises. In ten games under Ilzer, the zero has only been kept once, and not yet in the league!
I don’t think anyone wants to defend on Saturday, true to the motto “attack is the best defense”. As in the first leg, I expect a colorful offensive spectacle that the guests in particular don’t want to lose in order to avoid slipping to 17th place.
My Kiel Hoffenheim betting tip: Both teams to score.
