Bundesliga matchday 23, Saturday, 22.02.2025 at 15:30
Kiel have recently had to make do with last place in the German top flight again. KSV had been able to avoid that since the fifth matchday.
However, the relegation spot is just one point away and is probably the only realistic goal until the end of the season. The Bundesliga newcomers are already eight points off the last non-relegation place.
For the Werkself, the title defense is probably also off the table after the missed victory against Bayern (0:0). However, finishing runners-up would still be a success for the current second-placed team and would secure their return to the top flight.
The lead over Frankfurt (3rd) is still a solid five points. To defend this cushion, B04 will be aiming for an away win at Holstein-Stadion, where the current pitch conditions do not promise a footballing treat.
In the first half of the season, the Werkself let an early 2-0 lead slip away and ended up sharing the points with Kiel. Xabi Alonso’s team will have learned their lesson from that.
I can’t imagine B04 slipping up again. The defending champions gave a taste of their own strength in the direct duel with Bayern (0-0) and kept Munich away from their own goal for the most part.
I’m placing my Kiel Leverkusen tip with Betano. I’m backing a commanding away win for the Werkself and am playing with odds of 2.26 “Leverkusen win without conceding a goal”.
The bookmakers’ forecast?
You can probably guess. The bookmakers in our bookmaker comparison have Leverkusen as the clear favorites without exception. A win for the Werkself does not exceed the 1.30 mark anywhere.
With odds of around 6.50, even a draw seems impossible. However, you can never rule out a draw with the visitors – there are nowhere more of them than in the defending champions’ fixture list (8).
Kiel have won every Bundesliga match in the club’s history at home (3). With betting odds in the double-digit range, another three-pointer from the bottom of the table is at most a variant for a free bet. In my opinion, however, this could be used much more sensibly.
AI prediction Kiel vs Leverkusen: ChatGPT
The artificial intelligence survey on three predictions has produced interesting results. The bet with the lowest risk was “Schick scores”. The attacker has not been on the pitch from the start in several important matches recently and looked dejected afterwards. Bet365 obviously takes this into account, as the odds are quite high at 2.50.
As a second option, ChatGPT has given a recommendation of “Over 3.5 goals”. That sounds reasonable. Kiel have by far the weakest defense in the Bundesliga (57 goals conceded) – but in return have scored the most goals in the second half of the season after Bayern (9). Tipwin provides you with odds of 2.05.
The high-risk variant on “Kiel to score the first goal” leaves me a little confused. The Storks have conceded by far the most goals in the first half (34). In addition, the Werkself scored 30 goals within the first 45 minutes 1. Therefore, I do not find the offered odds of 3.70 at Betano convincing.
Analysis: Kiel vs Leverkusen
As a rule, Leverkusen succeeds in starting a match. No other team scored more goals before the break than the Werkself (30). The goal difference in the first half (30:13) looks pretty convincing to me.
The Storks scored less than half as many goals before the break (14) and conceded the most goals in the first half (34). No other team in the German top flight conceded more than 24 goals in the first 45 minutes.
The first-round duel ended in a 2-2 draw, but could just as easily have ended in an absolute debacle for KSV. The Storks were already 2-0 down before the tenth minute of the game. Once again, B04 will not allow the hosts to mount a comeback, I’m relatively confident.
With all due respect, Kiel defended their own goal poorly in many situations and absolutely not fit for the first division. If Schick is back in the starting eleven after a difficult few weeks recently, I can well imagine the Czech being highly motivated to dig his way through the airy rearguard of the team bottom of the table.
Odds Analysis
Kiel have conceded at least two goals in 20 of 22 Bundesliga matches. On average, the leather flew into the Storks’ net almost 2.6 times per game.
Leverkusen scored 2.2 goals per matchday and have an attacker in Patrik Schick who can boast an incredible 1.50 goals per 90 minutes 1.
Based on these figures, I went through the Interwetten offer and stopped at odds of 1.90 for “Leverkusen over 2.5 goals”, which I would prefer to see in conjunction with a sports betting bonus.
Kiel vs. Leverkusen: A game of probabilities
Football goals are often real highlights and are more in demand in modern times than they were just a few years ago. However, shots on goal from inside the penalty area are of course much more efficient and valuable.
With the exception of Bochum (78%), all Bundesliga teams conceded over 80% of their goals from shots from inside their own sixteen.
Skillfully defending your own penalty area and allowing as few opponent shots as possible inside the box increases the likelihood of a clean sheet.
Werkself is a fantastic example of this. No other Bundesliga team allows their opponents a lower rate of shots from inside their own penalty area than the defending champions (59.59%).
Record-breakers
Leverkusen often dominate the ball and their opponents, concede the fewest shots on goal (220) after Bayern (128) and have the second-best expected defense in the Bundesliga (23.1 xGA).
Most recently, B04 added two draws against Wolfsburg (0-0) and Bayern (0-0) to their own collection, but prevented two of the four most successful attacking lines from conceding a goal!
Xabi Alonso is a shrewd fox who has developed Leverkusen into a team that is almost impossible to beat. The defending champions are now unbeaten in 20 Bundesliga matches. Away from home, B04 have even avoided defeat for 27 Bundesliga games in a row!
If the visitors avoid another defeat at Holstein-Stadion, Xabi Alonso will become the first Bundesliga coach to go 28 consecutive away games without defeat.
The decisive phase for my Kiel Leverkusen tip begins in the 76th minute of the game. KSV have already scored 13 goals in the last quarter of an hour, giving several matches unexpected tension.
Despite this greed until the last second, the Bundesliga newcomers have already missed out on a goal in four home games.
In a league comparison, only three teams took fewer shots than Marcel Rapp’s team (181). No other Bundesliga team saw more than 382 shots hit their goal.
In my opinion, it’s shaping up to be a clear-cut affair for the Werkself at Holstein-Stadion, who I easily believe will win by at least a two-goal margin.
My Kiel Leverkusen tip:
Leverkusen control the Bundesliga encounters in the calendar year 2025. The Werkself have kept a clean sheet in three of their last six matches in the German top flight.
In five of the six previous matches, B04 goalkeeper Hradecky conceded no more than one goal.
Kiel will not receive a second invitation like the 2:2 comeback in the first leg. Instead, I expect a dominant Werkself.
My Kiel Leverkusen betting tip is: Leverkusen win without conceding a goal
