Bundesliga 29th matchday, Saturday, 12/04/2025 at 3:30 pm
I’m really looking forward to this game! There is a lot at stake in this thrilling north-south duel, especially for the Störche, who urgently need a win and are targeting one against their fellow promoted team.
The guests could live with a point, but they are not exactly in a comfortable starting position either, with a four-point lead over the relegation place.
As against Mainz, I expect a committed performance from KSV, but I think that they will not manage to keep a clean sheet again. Therefore, I am betting on both teams scoring at NEO.bet in my Kiel St. Pauli tip.
Anyone who has seen Kiel’s games this season has got their money’s worth. In 28 games, we saw 107 goals, 3.82 on average, only FC Bayern had one more goal. Last week, in my tip against Mainz, I was still talking about the highest-scoring matches.
But Bayern have since also taken this record, with 108 goals scored in the meantime. Both teams scoring was already my selection against the Nullfünfer, as I only partially trusted the CL candidate to win at home.
True to the motto “Never change a running sports bet”, I’m going for the same odds again!
The betting providers’ prediction
In addition, for me this match clearly belongs in the “hands off” category. Games where you should avoid placing an initial bet. You have requested the format and we are implementing it, with the help of the entire team of authors!
The odds suggest that it could be a close game. In fact, even the guest is in the role of the favorite in the form of a 2.32 quote. For Kiel, NEO.bet has a 3.10, and the draw was a little higher.
Kiel – St. Pauli AI prediction
The AI has also picked out the goal of both teams, and rates the odds as a “low-risk” bet. For the other selections, the focus is on St. Pauli. In the second selection, ChatGPT settles on the odds that the Hamburg team will score the first goal.
Holstein has conceded the 0-1 in four of its last five home games. Goals against are not uncommon for the worst defense in the league anyway. At home, they have actually only kept their white vest once, namely in the 1-0 win against Heidenheim over five months ago!
Nevertheless, I am not thrilled about this bet, St. Pauli scores the fewest goals, I trust the hosts offensively on Saturday more, they should be the team that should have more game shares due to the pressure situation.
The third suggestion from ChatGPT is the final result “2:1 for St. Pauli”. I wouldn’t use a free bet for this selection either. Predicting the exact outcome of the numerous goals scored in the Kiel games is harder than it already is!
Only a few players are likely to win the maximum number of points in the prediction games here.
Analysis: Kiel vs. St. Pauli
Furthermore, I lack the statistical basis here. St. Pauli has not even won 2-1 this season and Kiel has only lost 2-1 on two matchdays. Sure, 2-1 is the most common football result, but that’s too unspecific for me.
I find the Oddset selection, that the game will be decided by exactly one goal, much more attractive. We cover numerous outcomes with this, including Kiel wins, and still get strong 2.30 odds.
I definitely don’t expect this game to be one-sided. You could also place two individual bets. In addition to the Oddset odds, you can also find the best draw odds from our odds overview below and distribute the stakes so that you have the same total profit.
I really like the odds boost for the game at this traditional betting provider. The odds for both teams to score with “Over 2.5 goals” in the package are now increased to 2.37. However, I want to hedge against a 1-1 draw like I did against Mainz.
Odds analysis
All in all, the odds for Kiel are a bit too high for me; I had expected even odds for a win or even a small advantage for the storks. I don’t dare to make a single selection in the 1X2, but the “double chance 1X” at 1.58 is quite decent.
If you add both teams scoring into the mix, you can look forward to strong 2.58 odds. If you win, you could even make a net profit of 158 euros with this bet without any risk of loss if you are not yet registered with Winamax.
Because there your first deposit will be doubled up to 100 euros in the form of free betting credits. In addition, a 15 euro free bet is waiting there until April 17 without a deposit. You can currently get a few of these from our betting providers.
In addition to the €15 free bet from Winamax, there is a €20 free bet waiting for you at Betano and a €10 free bet at AdmiralBet and NEO.bet, making a total of €55 in free bets without depositing a cent!
Kiel vs. St. Pauli: Good offensive performance by Hamburg against Gladbach
In addition to the coup against BVB (4:2), Kiel have only won one other game in 2025, namely the away game against Union Berlin (1:0). This was followed by two draws against Stuttgart and Mainz, but in the return games against Heidenheim (1:3) and Bremen (0:3), KSV came away empty-handed.
The Kiezkicker have at least bagged three wins in the new year, the last one before the start of the international break, the 1-0 against Hoffenheim. Then there was a narrow defeat in the Allianz Arena (2-3) and most recently the 1-1 against Gladbach.
A game in which much more was possible. Offensively, it was one of the best, if not the best, games of the promoted team. The club created 26 chances. In the end, Oladapo Afolayan’s late equalizer at least earned them a draw.
And how did the first leg between Kiel and St. Pauli go? The city rivals of HSV managed to win 3-1. It was only in the final phase that Phil Harres managed to score in an early decisive game.
Two 3:4 in the last duels in the Holstein Stadium!
The last duels were generally tough. There were 28 goals in the last eight encounters, the last four of which St. Pauli won, by the way. Incidentally, a decisive argument for me to ultimately only go for the goal of both teams.
The last two games in the Holstein Stadium ended 3:4, final results in ice hockey spheres!
The defensive personnel situation at Kiel remains tense. In addition to Colin Kleine-Bekel, who is injured and out for the long term, David Zec is now also missing from the center of defense and can only watch the game from the stands due to a yellow card suspension.
St. Pauli also has defensive problems. It’s a shame for the teams, but it’s not good for anyone betting on the match in this six-point game.
My Kiel St. Pauli Tip:
No question about it, Kiel need to get three points in this match. If I look at the other upcoming duels, including those in Dortmund and Leipzig, it becomes even clearer. However, the Kiezkicker, who have only let in half as many goals, must first be outwitted.
Only Mainz and Bayern have conceded fewer goals. Nevertheless, I think the storks will score at least one goal in this important match, they have done so in twelve of the last 14 meetings!
At the same time, they have only kept a clean sheet once at home this season.
Both teams to score!
