Bundesliga Matchday 7, Sunday, 20.10.2024 at 15:30
At some point, it has to be time to stop paying the price! Holstein Kiel want to finally arrive in our 1st Bundesliga tips, on Sunday the Storks get another chance to win. Can I give them hope in my Kiel Union Berlin betting tip?
I can! Because at least from my point of view, it’s quite possible that it will work out with the first three-pointer. Since I don’t want to take a full risk on a winless team, I’ve decided to recommend the double chance 1X bet to you
The opponent from the capital represents a style of play that the Kielers don’t like at all: Advance defensively, stand securely, only strike up front in an “emergency”. Or as the North Germans’ system is called: Full speed ahead, in an emergency we’ll just concede six goals.
With average odds of 3.55 to 2.10, the Kiel Union Berlin odds are not quite as optimistic as I am, but at least they allow the conclusion that the visitors will not push forward from the start.
Well, in my Kiel Union Berlin prediction, I’m betting that the home side won’t end up without a point. It might be a bit risky given their defense, but I’ll tell you what the odds are in the end!
The oddsmakers’ forecast?
Since Holstein Kiel are still winless after six rounds, I’m not surprised that the newcomers are cast in the role of underdogs against the current number six in the league. The odds to win on Sunday reach an average of 3.50.
Union Berlin have only lost once, but are also much stronger when it comes to points at home. Even though the Ironmen are rather reluctant to play away from home, they are given favorite odds of 2.10.
Kiel have picked up at least one point in two of their last three games, while Union have already shared the points twice away from home. Therefore, I would not disregard the draw, which leads to odds of 3.35.
KI prediction Kiel – Union Berlin: ChatGPT
For ChatGPT, Holstein Kiel is of course also a newcomer in the 1st Bundesliga. How well does the AI already know the German elite class? Let’s put it this way, I’ve had three betting options created that I’d like to go through with you now.
Fancy a high risk? Then bet on Holstein Kiel to win by one goal. What speaks for it: All of Union’s results had a difference of one goal – at most. So if the Storks can actually win, it will definitely be in this way
We have reached the medium risk, and thus directly to the BTS. Admittedly, the Iron’s defense is impressive. But since Kiel has already netted four times and has the worst defense, this tip gets my full support.
According to the AI, you’re taking a low risk if you bet on goals being scored before the break. Incredibly, the Storks only conceded less than two goals once in the first half! So it’s clear that this bet should be correct in the end.
Analysis: Kiel vs Union Berlin
International break – time to take a deep breath. Probably no fan camp enjoyed the match-free time as much as the one from Kiel, because for once it wasn’t: Two or more goals conceded? Standard!
The newly promoted team is still struggling in the top flight. They try to play bravely and courageously, but it is not uncommon for this to end in overconfidence and be punished by their opponents. The result: 19 goals conceded, 13 of them in the first half
However, you could put it another way: international break – what a shame! Holstein picked up a point in their last game before the break after trailing 2-0. The opponent? The champions from Leverkusen!
This performance was really strong, meaning that they have now scored a point in two of their last three games. They never gave up in the 2-2 draw in Bochum either, scoring the equalizer in the 89th minute.
Ratings analysis
I was very impressed by Kiel’s 2-2 draw against Leverkusen. Now that they finally want to give their own fans a point, I can well imagine that the team will seek their salvation on the run. If they manage to score the first goal of the game on Sunday, Oddset has odds of 2.30.
Since Kiel are incredibly vulnerable defensively and have already conceded an incredible 13 goals in the first half, I can also get excited about the BTS bet before the break. Here, the odds would even jump to 4.00.
If I had to decide on a result bet, my choice would be a 2:2. This result seems relatively likely to me, if you want to take the risk, you can pick up odds of 14.5.
Kiel vs. Union Berlin: Which style of play will prevail?
Apropos scoring goals, it’s not because of the offense that Kiel has never won. They have already scored twice four times, only in the 2-0 defeat to Wolfsburg did they fail to score – and here the Hanseatic side were absolutely equal with 13:13 shots.
The fact that they are still without a point in their own stadium does not please Kiel at all. However, FC Bayern (1:6) and Eintracht Frankfurt (2:4) were also very difficult opponents recently.
Against SGE, the underdogs had actually kept up well, only after the 2:2 draw did things go wrong. From an offensive point of view, I have to highlight Shuto Machino, who scored four goals, two against Eintracht.
Can Kiel finally tighten up their defense?
He is the most dangerous man in his team, at Bet365 you could pick up odds of 3.25 if you want to place the corresponding goal bet. On top of that, you can also collect a few Bet365 credits to play with.
Incidentally, Holstein scored five of their nine goals this season from a resting ball, which is also anything but uninteresting. Since the defense allows so much, it is probably no surprise that Kiel has already conceded six goals in this way.
Between 2017 and 2019, before Union’s promotion to the first division, the two clubs met four times in the lower division. Kiel’s record: three defeats, one draw and ten goals conceded – it’s like being transported back to the present day!
While spectacle reigns for Kiel, Union Berlin are approaching this season very differently. They only lost 1-0 in Mönchengladbach, and the goal they conceded came virtually at the final whistle.
1:0 against St. Pauli, 2:1 against Hoffenheim and 2:1 against Dortmund? Yes, the Alte Försterei is a fortress again! Even in the strong years, it was always the case that the Berliners were hard to beat at home.
The problems tended to occur away from home, and that’s exactly the case now. 1:1 in Mainz, 0:0 against RB Leipzig and 0:1 against Gladbach – what works well defensively comes at the expense of their own attack.
With a total of four goals conceded, the capital city team have the second-best defense of the competition, which is of course very strong. At the same time, however, only St. Pauli are bettered by their own six goals.
Add to that the fact that four goals were scored after a set-piece situation and it becomes clear that very little is really possible from within the game. However, I haven’t even mentioned one very strong value.
Namely, that Union have only lost one of the last 12 Bundesliga duels against a promoted team. That one defeat came in September of last year with a 1-0 loss in Heidenheim.
Before Berlin are presented with three very strong opponents in Frankfurt, FC Bayern and Freiburg, the team should of course make sure they get the expected three points against Kiel.
My Kiel Union Berlin tip:
I think Holstein Kiel can win a point against Union Berlin, and I’m certainly not the only one! The performance against Leverkusen (and previously against Frankfurt) impressed me, now it’s just a matter of getting the horror defense under control.
It’s good that Union Berlin, an opponent who has only scored twice from the field, will be coming here. The Storks are highly motivated to finally give their fans their first point. And the visitors? They simply don’t like playing away from home.
As stable as their defense may be, the Berliners are without a win away from home and hardly score at all. All of this has led me to assume that the mood in the far north will be upbeat and my bet is:
Kiel scores!
