FC Copenhagen – Almaty Tip Champions League, Matchday 5 on Wednesday, 26.11.2025 at 18:45 CET
Full of confidence in the clairvoyant abilities of our data model and the FC Copenhagen Almaty AI forecast it created, I pounced on an attractive odds boost, which will also be available to you on Wednesday.
2.99 goals – that’s the number of goals mathematically expected by our digital betting brain. The Danes’ offensive department should largely single-handedly ensure that this value is reached – at least that’s the forecast!
Personally, however, I am not so sure about this. I can very well imagine an open exchange of blows, but I do not want to commit myself to the fact that Copenhagen will actually set the tone.
Why I distrust the Danes and their offense becomes obvious when you look at the numbers – things are anything but smooth at FCK at the moment!
Because the Copenhageners are still winless in this Champions League season and have lost the last three games in a row – this is already their longest losing streak in the Champions League.
The 4-0 defeat against Tottenham on matchday four was particularly painful, which also marks their second-heaviest defeat in the Champions League. Only once have they lost more clearly, 5-0 to Manchester City in October 2022.
FC Copenhagen – Almaty Prediction & Betting
The fact that the betting providers impose the clear role of favourites on the home side without tax opens up the possibility for me to place targeted value bets.
1st goal: Almaty at odds around 3.50 is one such tip. Why not? The team from Kazakhstan recently even scored a goal at the San Siro and will not be without a chance at the Parken Stadium.
Meanwhile, my second proposal, Double Chance X2, is based not only on a good gut feeling, but also on solid facts.
It is an open secret that the Danes are currently weakening in this competition: After all, Copenhagen have only won two of their last 16 Champions League main round games!
What you need to know about FC Copenhagen vs. Almaty betting
- Copenhagen is winless in the Champions League and has lost the last three games.
- Kairat Almaty (2.56 xG) has the second-lowest expected goals (xG) in the competition after four Champions League games (only Eintracht Frankfurt is worse).
- Kairat Almaty is considered by bookmakers to be the favourite for the last place (36th) of the CL league phase (probability: 52.6%).
- If Dastan Satpaev (Kairat) is in the starting eleven, he would be the youngest CL player to be in the starting line-up in the first five games of a season (17 years, 106 days).
FC Copenhagen – Almaty: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Copenhagen Almaty AI prediction has given me some betting suggestions, some of which really surprised me at first.
Statistically, the tip Over 3.5 goals seems completely unfounded at first, as both teams have shown little forward so far.
But precisely because the odds for this are 2.32 on average and both clubs must win at all costs, there could actually be a surprise with regard to the final score. Not the usual zero number, but rather a wild 2:2 this time? Quite possibly!
Almaty: Over 1.5 goals sounds daring at first, even at attractive odds around 4.15, after all, the cumulative xG value of the Kazakhs after the first four matchdays is only 2.6 – 35th place out of 36 in the competition.
Nevertheless, if I were you, I would be open to this bet and the third proposal, both teams score. Against an equal opponent, the course of the game could look completely different than usual.
What’s more, Copenhagen have conceded at least two goals in each of their last 6 Champions League games – so that would fit perfectly into the picture our AI is trying to paint!
The best odds for FC Copenhagen vs. Almaty
Now let’s take a cursory look at the betting markets and their FC Copenhagen Almaty odds to capture the opinion of the bookmakers.
The odds speak for themselves – the Danes are clearly favourites according to the bookmakers, but in my eyes they are too clear!
Because a victory for FC Copenhagen is recorded at 1.34, which corresponds to a probability of occurrence of around 74 percent. The bookmakers are thus relying heavily on the home advantage and the individual class of the Danes.
The tie is 5.25, about 17 percent chance. This rate shows that while the markets consider a draw possible, it is unlikely.
For an away win by Almaty, there is a whopping 8.25, around 12 percent probability of occurrence. The bookmakers clearly see the Kazakhs as outsiders who could only score points if the game went optimally.
Despite the Danes’ clear role as favourites, I consider the game to be much more balanced. Almaty has the potential to withstand the pressure and create excitement with clever counterattacks!
FC Copenhagen vs Almaty Match Analysis:
Both teams show in the numbers that not too much is possible offensively. Actually, there are many indications of a tough game in terms of data, but the special starting position on Wednesday could ensure that both sides act much more offensively than usual.
A draw doesn’t really help anyone, so Kairat and Copenhagen will increasingly take the path forward!
However, dangers lurk on both sides: Kairat in particular could get into some lousy counterattacks on his own advance. Actually, they should have conceded more goals than the 11 that are currently on the books.
An outstanding keeper has prevented worse so far: Temirlan Anarbekov has only conceded two goals this Champions League season, although he received shots with an xG value of 5.8.
This means that he has recorded the most “prevented goals” of all goalkeepers in this competition so far (+3.8). At the same time, Copenhagen’s backline itself is not immune to goals.
This results in the prospect of a wild back and forth, in which both teams have to search offensively and react quickly defensively. If you use the transition moments cleverly, you could win the game.
FC Copenhagen Form Check
Copenhagen has had a really difficult time in the Champions League so far. Only one draw at the start, then three defeats in a row. Defensively, a lot goes wrong, twelve goals conceded clearly show that stability is lacking at the back.
Nevertheless, there are also rays of hope: In the last 18 home European games, they have always scored, plus a 1-0 win against Bröndby in the league at the weekend.
So home games give them self-confidence and help them keep their heads above water. If you look at the table, you can see that it’s getting tight, every point counts.
Jordan Larsson is currently the man for the important goals, he has scored seven of his last eight goals at home and he will try to make the difference again against Kairat.
The only thing that worries are the injuries: Suzuki limped out at the weekend, and there are also a few long-term absences that limit the rotation.
Nevertheless, there is still a lot of quality on the field at home, especially offensively. If Larsson brings his form to the pitch and the defense looks a little more stable, you can expect a home team that is putting pressure on up front and looking for the game.
Almaty Form Check
Kairat has hardly had much reason to cheer in the league phase so far. There were defeats against Sporting, Real and Inter, plus a 0-0 draw against Pafos – the first victory in the main round of a UEFA competition is still to come after eleven attempts.
Little works away from home, seven defeats from the last ten European Cup trips show that the boys have problems when the home right is with the opponent.
Nevertheless, they can still surprise: the motivation to become the first Kazakh club to win in the Champions League is huge. They will therefore try to be brave and put pressure early on to get the opponent out of rhythm.
Edmilson is the man for the quick goals, eight of his last ten goals have been scored before the break. He will try to sound the alarm early on and put pressure on Copenhagen’s defence.
Otherwise, the squad looks relatively fit, there are no fresh injury worries, so they can compete almost with their best line-up.
If they take their chances and Edmilson confirms his form, they could set a few pinpricks away from home.
Nevertheless, it won’t be really easy, because defensively they have often shown problems and therefore have to feel their way very concentrated.
