Leeds – West Ham Tip Premier League, Matchday 9, 10/24/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
So far, this has been a season that West Ham fans would like to quickly forget and one that hopefully will not end with their favorite club being relegated to the second division. No free bet can comfort the Hammers’ supporters, who are humiliated week after week.
According to my Leeds West Ham United prediction, their boys are in danger of suffering another defeat on Friday! Given their dismal performance, it’s hard to imagine any other outcome.
No Premier League team has conceded more goals (18) so far this season. The sad xGA value of 1.71 per 90 minutes is just another silent invitation to the hosts not to settle for just one goal.
Leeds vs. West Ham AI predictions:
A Leeds win with HC -1 at odds of around 3.65 in any reliable sports betting app is a recommendation from our AI model that I wouldn’t dismiss out of hand.
The Whites lost their last home game against Spurs 2-1, it’s true, but that only ended a run of 23 consecutive unbeaten league home games (18 wins, 5 draws).
If West Ham United perform as we have seen them do regularly in recent weeks and months, then a 2-0 or 3-1 win for the hosts is entirely possible.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Leeds win |
Draw |
West Ham win |
| 46.5% |
25.3% |
28.2% |
Sure, there’s still room for improvement when it comes to converting chances. But Leeds are averaging 13 shots on goal per game in this Premier League season – the highest rate for a promoted team since Leeds themselves in the 2020/21 season.
Consequently, the Leeds over 2.5 goals selection is just as interesting to me as Leeds to score first, even if the odds of 3.75 and 1.65 respectively result in completely different payouts in the event of success.
In any case, I can well imagine that the hosts will set the tone from the first minute and secure what feels like 70% possession if WHU don’t put up a strong fight.
What you need to consider when betting on Leeds vs. West Ham
- Leeds has the lowest big chance conversion rate in the Premier League at 17.6%.
- Players such as Brenden Aaronson, Jack Harrison, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin are underperforming their expected goals (negative xG).
- West Ham lost 2-0 to Brentford, losing their first four home games of the league season for the first time since the 1930-31 season.
- Our internal data model predicts a goal tally of 2.55 xG.
- Lucas Paqueta (1.57 xG) is the only West Ham player with more than one expected goal after eight Premier League games.
