La Liga, match day 31 on Saturday, 12/04/2025 at 9:00 pm
One makes a mistake – and the other can hardly take advantage of it! In the Primera Division title race, the best seem to be getting a bit of nervous flutter, and even the leaders from Barcelona have ended their fabulous streak.
And yet: the lead has even been extended slightly. Between the important Champions League games, I am now turning my attention to my Leganes Barcelona tip – and maybe that’s exactly why I’m putting the bet “Leganes win with handicap +2” into the race!
Four points ahead of Real Madrid, seven ahead of Atletico – it sounds like FC Barcelona has everything under control. Basically, it does, but last weekend was not a perfect one.
Atletico won in the last second, but Real left all three points behind in their defeat against Valencia. Barca could have taken advantage of this, but only managed a 1-1 draw against Betis Sevilla.
Nine consecutive wins had been achieved before this, but this fabulous streak has now been broken. Only for the second time in 2025 did the league’s top attack (83 goals have already been scored) have to settle for just one goal.
It was also the first time since mid-December that they had conceded a goal at home before half-time. Who was the last club to beat Barca in the first 45 minutes of a home game? Leganes!
So, of all things, their next opponent, which could well be perceived as a bad omen. After a dry spell of just one win in five away games, their recent away performances have improved again.
4-2 at Atletico, 2-0 against Las Palmas, 4-1 against Sevilla, for the first time since the start of the season, the Catalans could now manage four away wins in a row again. Nevertheless, I notice a small defensive weakness.
Since the Clasico at Real Madrid, which was won 4-0 at the end of October, they have only managed to keep a clean sheet once away from home. Perhaps it is the case that the defense is having a hard time managing its strength?
On Wednesday, Barca were finally in action in the Champions League, playing the quarter-final first leg against Borussia Dortmund. They cruised to a comfortable 4-0 win, so is there anything still to be done in terms of progressing?
With the rematch taking place in just a few days, coach Hansi Flick must already have this appearance in the back of his mind. But a B-team against Leganes? That wouldn’t be a good solution given the rather small lead over Real.
Especially since Leganes surprised everyone in the first leg, managing to grab a 1-0 lead in the Olympic Stadium. It was the first and so far only home game this season that the Catalans had to end without scoring.
For the first time since 2019, Barca are now back in Leganes, so players like Lionel Messi and Luis Suarez were still on the field for the most recent away win. Of course, it’s not surprising that all tax-free bookmakers are backing the visitors to win.
The odds are on average 1.33 to 7.90. Leganes, the returnee, is on the bottom line, but with two points behind the rescue shore, at least nothing is lost yet.
After three defeats in a row, there was at least a draw again. However, I also have to say that the last defeats of the Pepineros were really avoidable, they were very unlucky.
Against Real Madrid, for example, they lost 2-3, with two of the three goals conceded coming after a stationary ball. They had also lost to Betis with this result, having conceded a 2-0 lead.
The 1-2 against Celta Vigo? You might already have guessed: a 1-0 didn’t hold here either. In three of the last seven games, they even scored twice before half-time, but it didn’t help much in the end.
Six goals were conceded by the team in their own stadium in the first half, 17 in the second, that’s quite a stark difference. It could therefore be worthwhile to say: Barca will not score before half-time.
Betano offers odds of 2.65 for this. It’s profitable in any case, but since you can also benefit from the Betano welcome bonus here, it’s worth taking a look at this bookmaker.
Incidentally, Barcelona will have to pay particular attention to Dani Raba, because the winger scored four times in the last three games. A goal bet is listed at Bet365 with odds of 4.50.
The little stumble against Betis Sevilla can be forgiven for Barcelona, the lead is safe. Between the important Champions League quarter-finals, the task now is to confidently complete the task at Leganes – so not to play like in the first leg!
The home side recently had Real and Betis on the verge of defeat, but they can’t really handle being behind. I also found out that the league leaders have had a few defensive wobbles away from home.
Therefore, after weighing up all the facts, I believe that we will see an interesting game in which the underdog will also try to take its chances. My tip is therefore:
Leganes win with handicap +2.
