Europa Conference League, quarter-final, first leg, Thursday, 10/04/2025 at 6:45 PM
The big favorite for the title is entering the quarterfinals. The goal: to secure a good starting position for the second leg so that they can easily reach the last four. It has been mentioned several times in our UEFA Conference League tips that Chelsea FC is the first port of call for the trophy.
The Blues win game after game in the competition, but of course they are not presented with the absolute big hitters as opponents. Of course, this is not an issue in my Legia Warsaw v Chelsea tip either. Accordingly, my bet is: the guests win as expected.
So far, the Londoners always know how high they have to jump for the win without exhausting themselves unnecessarily. The home side know that hardly anyone is expecting them, and it is precisely this opportunity that they want or need to take advantage of.
So, at the end of the day, this is a classic David versus Goliath game. Of course, Legia would like to take advantage of the home game on Thursday, because they turned around a deficit against Molde at home in the last sixteen.
In my analysis, I would like to go into detail as to why I am not writing off the Poles before the kick-off, despite my tip, because: Even an unadorned 2-1 win for the English would correspond to my tip.
The bookmakers’ forecast
Since Chelsea have really won all their Conference League games this season, it’s no wonder that the bookmakers also see the Blues in front this Thursday. The odds for another win average 1.55.
On the other hand, those who want to bet on Legia winning the first of the two duels will find an average of 5.30. Interestingly, when it comes to pure progression, Chelsea is even further ahead with 1.08 to 8.00.
Would a draw in the first leg not be out of the question? I would put it this way, the odds are not completely out of hand with a 4.20. Apparently, it is at least not out of the question that we will see a close game.
AI-Prediction Legia Warsaw vs. Chelsea: That’s what ChatGPT tips
When the big favorite for the title is on the pitch, I’m particularly interested in what ChatGPT spits out about this match. And I can tell you right now: I can’t give 100% approval here.
For example, the AI suggests the home win as a high-risk bet, but I wouldn’t go that far. If you think Legia can do it, then maybe with a 2-0 handicap or maybe the “double chance 1X”.
The bet “Over 3.5 goals” was also suggested to me. This was true five times for the Blues, but they have conceded three times away from home. So you could be right here, but I think a 0-1 scoreline is just as likely.
If there is a maximum of one goal in the first half, you are in the range of the last AI bet. I have to say that in all Legia matches something happened before half-time, but only twice were there more than two goals. Since Chelsea have had two 0-0 halftimes recently, this tip could work.
Analysis: Legia Warsaw vs Chelsea
From the outset, Chelsea were considered the favorites to win the title, and so far they have lived up to this role. It’s not easy to make such a statement in the Conference League, because not all top clubs learn to love this competition.
Even the Blues actually see themselves as destined for something greater, but the Conference League is and remains an international title. The team has four more matches to get through before the final.
In the round of 16, Copenhagen was on the opposite side. 2-1 away, 1-0 at home, the Blues kept it efficient this time. There are certainly tipsters who bet on a handicap here.
With good reason, because Chelsea’s wins in the group stage were much more lopsided. 4:2 against Gent, 4:1 against Panathinaikos, 8:0 against Noah, 2:0 against Heidenheim, 3.1 against Astana and 5:1 against Shamrock, that was impressive.
Odds Analysis
Is this game just about when Chelsea will score how many goals? Yes, I favor the Londoners. However, I am more likely to assume an efficient performance. Therefore, I think the bet “Chelsea win by a goal” is appropriate, in the Bet365 app you can get a bet of 3.75 for this.
My favorite in terms of an outcome bet would be a 1-2, which is how Chelsea won in Copenhagen. If you place this outcome bet and it wins, the odds at Bet365 are 8.50.
I can also well imagine that the Blues will only start scoring after the break for the third time in a row. So I’m focusing on the 0-0 half-time result, with odds of 3.05.
Legia Warsaw vs. Chelsea: Is the venue decisive?
Of course, I also have to note that none of the opponents so far comes close to the level of Chelsea – Copenhagen almost lost to Heidenheim.
Does it make a difference that Chelsea have to play away first? After all, that’s been a big problem in the Premier League for months. Last weekend, the Blues couldn’t get past a 0-0 draw at Brentford either.
They haven’t won away from home since the beginning of December, since when they have scored three measly goals in eight games. So far, the Londoners have had no difficulties in international competition far from home, but as we all know, things can change.
While they scored 15 times in the first half during the preliminary round, they didn’t manage to score at all against Copenhagen. If you want to bet on a third game in a row without an early goal, Betano offers odds of 2.15 for this.
History is of no help
By the way, Chelsea have never scored against Legia Warsaw, and what’s more, it will be the first ever game against a team from Poland! So it’s an absolute first for both of them, and Legia shouldn’t be bothered by the role of underdog.
The road to the Conference League so far seems a little strange, because the Poles got off to a perfect start. 1-0 against Betis Sevilla, 3-0 against Topola, 4-0 against Dinamo Minsk and 3-0 against Omonia Nikosia, the results couldn’t have been better.
With a 1:2 against Lugano, the mood suddenly changed. After losing again against Djurgarden (1:3), Legia somehow still managed to make it into the last sixteen.
There they suffered a 3-2 defeat in Molde. It was not only their third defeat in a row, but also the sixth, seventh and eighth goals against in the last three games. Admittedly, I was relatively pessimistic about the second leg.
Legia proved me wrong, however, as they advanced to the last eight with a 2-0 win after extra time. So how should the defensive performances be assessed when they were suddenly able to keep a clean sheet again?
In any case, three of four CL home games were won without conceding a goal, with the 1-2 defeat to Lugano breaking the streak. Does the team have experience of playing out a European quarter-final?
In 1995/96, a long time ago, the Poles once got this far in the Champions League, but were knocked out by Panathinaikos. The last time they reached the semi-finals on the international stage was in 1970, when they lost to Feyenoord in the European Cup.
My Legia Warsaw Chelsea Tip:
Chelsea are favorites against Legia Warsaw – my analysis probably wouldn’t have been needed for this sentence. Having won all their matches in the competition so far, the Blues have rightly earned the role of favorites for the title.
However, their most recent results against Copenhagen have been much closer than those before. Legia ended the preliminary round with defeats and conceded a lot of goals, but now seems to have recovered.
The bottom line is that it could well be a close game, but Chelsea have enough quality to secure a good starting position for the second leg. So I’ve decided on the following bet:
Chelsea win in Warsaw!
