Leipzig – Freiburg Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 17 on Wednesday, 14/01/2026 at 20:30 CET
The start of the new year has fallen into the water for RB Leipzig – or rather into the snow. After the cancellation of the game against St. Pauli due to the weather, the new football year for the Saxons does not begin until the home game against SC Freiburg on matchday 17.
And Leipzig have set their sights on something. After all, it’s all about getting back in the fight for the Champions League places after the defeats against Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen (3-1 each).
In my Leipzig Freiburg tip, I assume that this project will succeed. “Win Leipzig” at odds around 1.80 at Interwetten is even one of the top tips of the entire matchday in my opinion.
Why? Because Leipzig are playing at home and have collected 18 out of a possible 21 points there so far – only Bayern are more successful in front of their home crowd.
Of course, Freiburg have been successful recently, beating Wolfsburg (4-3) and HSV (2-1). In fact, however, the Breisgau team has not been consistent this season. The record of six wins, five draws and five defeats underlines this impressively.
In addition, SCF is always good for major setbacks away from home. I still remember the 2-1 defeat in Heidenheim at the beginning of December. It should therefore be very difficult against Leipzig who are strong at home.
Leipzig – Freiburg Prediction & Betting Tips
Since Leipzig only conceded six goals in the first seven home games of this Bundesliga season, I’m leaning a bit out of the window with my first tip alternative and aiming for “Freiburg under 0.5 goals” at an enormous odd of around 2.90.
Yes, I expect Leipzig to win – but only make the decision at the end. As a risk tip, I would therefore like to recommend “Half-time/final score draw/Leipzig” to you. In my opinion, the odds of about 4.60 justify the risk. The fact that RB turns a 0-0 at half-time into a 2-0 is an extremely realistic scenario.
And while we’re at it, we can keep an eye on the “2-0 for RBL”. The odds are about 11.0, are undoubtedly one of the most interesting result bets of the duel and could be a case for an Interwetten Freebet.
What you need to know about Leipzig vs. Freiburg betting
- Leipzig has the second-best value in the Bundesliga with an average of 2.57 points per home game – only FC Bayern Munich is ahead here. Leipzig also ranks second in terms of home goals with 19 goals, behind Bayern with 39.
- Thanks to last Saturday’s comeback, Freiburg collected a total of eleven points from behind after the 2-1 win against Hamburger SV and are thus top of the Bundesliga in the 2025/26 season.
- Leipzig have scored in each of their last 19 Bundesliga home games. The last goalless home game dates back to 9 November 2024, when they drew 0-0 with Borussia Mönchengladbach. Freiburg, on the other hand, struggles in away games and concedes an average of 2.13 goals per game away from home in the Bundesliga.
- Igor Matanovic’s winning goal against Hamburg was Freiburg’s eighth substitute goal this season. In this category, the sports club is in second place in the league – only FC Bayern Munich has a higher value with eleven goals from the bench.
Leipzig – Freiburg: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model doesn’t miss the duel between RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg and serves you three additional betting alternatives in its Leipzig Freiburg AI prediction.
“Win Leipzig & Both Teams Score” is the first selection of the digital brain. The odds around 2.90 are of course very tempting, but in the end I’m personally not convinced that Freiburg will score a goal in Leipzig.
In the same breath, the AI goes to the bet “Leipzig over 1.5 goals” at odds of about 1.60. The fact that RBL has scored a total of 19 goals in the first seven home games does not really seem to be on the bookmakers’ radar with PayPal.
The AI also has a player bet up its sleeve for you. “Romulo scores” is rated by bookmakers at around 2.50. The Leipzig professional currently has four goals this season and is third in RB’s internal goalscorer list.
The best odds for Leipzig vs. Freiburg
The home advantage makes Leipzig the clear favorite. The 1X2 market assigns Ole Werner’s team a chance of victory of around 57 percent. Nevertheless, Freiburg has the potential to achieve a positive result itself.
The Asian Handicap is -0.5/-1.0 in favor of Leipzig. This means that a win with a difference of two or more goals would be a complete success for betting on the hosts, a victory with only one goal difference would result in a half win.
This line also makes it possible to have the draw “on your side” in a handicap bet on Freiburg.
The Asian goal line is set at 3.0. Four goals would therefore be needed to win in overbets, while if exactly three goals were scored, the stake would be refunded.
Despite the overall strong season, Leipzig is missing a real goalscorer. According to bookmakers, Conrad Harder is considered the most likely goalscorer.
Yan Diomande and Christoph Baumgartner, Leipzig’s top scorers in the Bundesliga with six goals each, are given a goal probability of around 35 percent based on the odds.
Leipzig vs Freiburg Match Analysis:
Last season, it was Leipzig who missed out on international business, while Freiburg finished fifth. This season, however, the omens have turned: Leipzig are currently in third place – five places and six points ahead of their upcoming opponents.
A win for Ole Werner’s team against Freiburg would send a clear signal in the race for the Champions League places, which is likely to come to a head in the second half of the season. Several teams are fighting for a place in the top four, so a hard-fought duel is to be expected.
Freiburg have struggled away from home so far, conceding an average of 2.13 goals per away game in the Bundesliga.
Against the teams currently in the top four, the Breisgau team lost both games and had to concede a total of eight goals – not a good omen before the task in Leipzig, especially since the hosts have scored at least twice in six of their seven home games.
Leipzig under Ole Werner are less possession-oriented than previous RBL teams. They also act more cautiously against the ball, but this rather risk-minimizing approach has had an effect so far.
Defensively, Leipzig is more stable than in the previous season, although Freiburg has enough quality to cause problems for the home team.
Leipzig should control the game as a whole. However, since Freiburg’s most recent games have been high-scoring, chances are to be expected on both sides.
Leipzig Form Check
Leipzig’s game last Saturday against FC St. Pauli was cancelled due to uncertain wintry conditions around the Millerntor Stadium.
As a result, Leipzig go into their home game more rested than the Breisgau team, even if the gap to currently second-placed Borussia Dortmund has increased to four points.
Overall, Leipzig are playing a positive season, even though they have recently suffered two Bundesliga defeats in a row for the first time this season – the same number as in the first 13 league games combined. Leipzig last suffered three league defeats in a row in January 2024.
Known for its young squad and strong athleticism, Leipzig have averaged 174 sprints per game this Bundesliga season, trailing only Hoffenheim (182) in the league.
In home games, Leipzig has an average of 2.57 points – also the second-best value behind FC Bayern Munich. With 19 home goals, Leipzig is also in second place behind Bayern (39) and has scored at least two goals in six of the seven home games.
It is also noteworthy that Leipzig have scored at least one goal in each of their last 19 Bundesliga home games. The last goalless home game dates back to 9 November 2024, when they drew 0-0 with Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Freiburg Form Check
Igor Matanovic completed Freiburg’s comeback against decimated Hamburger SV at the weekend, securing the Sport-Club’s second Bundesliga win in a row and their third win in the last five games.
Julian Schuster’s side are now unbeaten in eleven home games, winning eight of them and looking to build on the success before the winter break, when Freiburg celebrated a spectacular 4-3 away win at Wolfsburg.
The success against Hamburg was of particular importance for SC, as Freiburg won two Bundesliga games in a row for only the second time this season – they had previously achieved this against Stuttgart and Bremen in mid-September.
With the comeback last Saturday, Freiburg already collected eleven points from behind with the 2-1 win against Hamburg and is thus top of the league in the 2025/26 season in this statistic.
Schuster also proved to have a lucky hand with his substitutions: In the 65th minute, he brought on Matanovic and Patrick Osterhage for Lucas Höler and Vincenzo Grifo, before Niklas Beste followed for Philipp Treu in the 79th minute.
The substitutions paid off – Freiburg have already scored eight goals through substitutes this Bundesliga season, putting them in second place in the league behind FC Bayern Munich (11).
