Leipzig – HSV Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 7 on Saturday, 10/18/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
The international break is history. Matchday 7 is on the agenda in the Bundesliga. On Saturday, RB Leipzig will be looking to continue their positive run and establish themselves in the top third of the table with a home win against Hamburger SV.
And although HSV have recently stabilized and are currently in 9th place after six games, I see RB as the clear favorites in my Leipzig HSV tip. The bet “Leipzig win with Asian handicap -1.0, -1.5” at odds of around 1.75 at Bet365 is an excellent deal in my opinion.
In fact, apart from the 0-6 defeat to the all-powerful Bayern Munich in the season opener, there is little to criticize about Leipzig this season. Since that bitter defeat, Ole Werner’s team has conceded only two goals and can therefore go into the match against HSV with confidence.
The question for HSV is how sustainable their recent upward trend really is. With Heidenheim, Mainz, and Union Berlin, the promoted team has recently played exclusively against teams in the lower half of the table – and picked up seven points. However, Leipzig is a completely different caliber.
Leipzig – HSV Prediction & Betting
I have picked out three betting alternatives for you. And I am already very taken with the first one. The facts: Leipzig has conceded only two goals in its last five Bundesliga games. HSV has scored only six goals in total.
Accordingly, the bet “HSV under 0.5 goals” is more than worth considering at strong odds of around 2.70 at betting providers with Paysafecard.
When you combine this selection with Leipzig’s fundamental role as favorites, the selection “Leipzig to win to nil” immediately catches the eye. Here, the odds climb to just under 3.00.
I expect a clear victory for Leipzig, but not a goal fest. Therefore, I also think “Under 3.5 goals” is a suitable bet for this match. The odds are around 1.85. This selection would have been successful in four of RB’s last five games.
What you need to consider when betting on Leipzig vs. HSV
- No team in the Bundesliga has scored more expected goals (3.66 xG) or more shots (38) from set pieces than RB Leipzig this season.
- Only Augsburg (6.28 xG) has a lower expected goals value than Hamburger SV (6.68 xG) after six matchdays.
- The last meeting between the two teams took place in the DFB Cup in the 2022/23 season. At that time, RB Leipzig went into the game with an Asian handicap of -1.25, just like now, and won 4-0, securing their place in the next round.
- RB Leipzig’s David Raum leads the Bundesliga rankings for key passes this season with 20. The next best Leipzig player in this category is Ridle Baku with 9 – less than half of Raum’s tally.
Leipzig – HSV: AI tip & odds analysis
Our AI model has been eagerly awaiting the continuation of the Bundesliga and is now ready with its Leipzig HSV AI prediction.
The AI’s first tip is simple. “Leipzig to win” dispenses with any frills and comes in at odds of around 1.45 on Interwetten Mobile. In my opinion, that’s more than solid, considering that RB has only dropped points against Bayern and Dortmund so far this season.
The bet “Leipzig to lead at halftime” is similar. I see RB dominating the game from the start and causing HSV enormous problems. Most recently against BVB, RB took a 1-0 lead in the 7th minute.
The digital brain also has a result bet up its sleeve. “3-0 for Leipzig” has odds of around 12.0. In my opinion, this selection is definitely worth the risk.
The best odds for Leipzig vs. HSV
Only Augsburg (6.28 xG) has a lower expected goals value after six games than Hamburger SV (6.68 xG). The visitors’ lack of clear scoring chances this season is likely to have had a noticeable impact on the betting odds for the Leipzig vs. Hamburg match.
Leipzig goes into the game as the clear favorite with odds of around 1.40. This rating corresponds to an implied probability of victory of just under 70 percent.
The bookmakers have set the Asian handicap line at -1.25 for RB Leipzig. In this scenario, Leipzig must win by at least two goals for bets on the hosts to yield a full profit. If Leipzig wins by only one goal, half of the stake will be refunded.
The last meeting between the two teams took place in the 2022/23 DFB Cup. At that time, RB Leipzig also started with a -1.25 handicap and won 4-0 against HSV.
Apart from the result bets, an Asian goal line of over/under 3.5 goals was set. For wins on “Over,” at least four goals must be scored, while ‘Under’ bettors profit from three or fewer goals.
Given Hamburg’s average of 2.33 goals conceded per 90 minutes in the current Bundesliga season and their weak offensive stats, it will likely be up to RB Leipzig to determine whether a bet on “Over” pays off.
Leipzig vs HSV match analysis:
Under Ole Werner, Leipzig no longer presses as frantically as in the past. In the Bundesliga, the team ranks in the bottom third in terms of passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) – yet the Saxons still manage to control most games.
This is likely to be the case again this time, as HSV are bottom of the table in terms of field tilt – a metric that measures territorial superiority.
Leipzig’s fast-paced attacking style remains unchanged: quick passing combinations through the opposing lines make the team difficult to predict.
Accordingly, Leipzig averages 16.83 shots on goal per game – only FC Bayern has more. Hamburg, on the other hand, allows the second-most shots on goal in the league, so the hosts are likely to have numerous opportunities again.
HSV has lacked creativity on the road so far, failing to score in three away games.
Although Hamburg had 16 shots in their last away game at Union Berlin, according to statistics, they only created one “big chance.” Merlin Polzin’s team will likely have to settle for long-range attempts again against a defensively solid Leipzig.
Leipzig form check
Under Ole Werner, Leipzig is the epitome of consistency.
Currently third in the Bundesliga and with two home wins in a row, the team has the highest expected goals from set pieces (3.66 xG) in the league.
So far, Leipzig has played almost flawlessly—even the recent 1-1 draw in Dortmund can be considered a success.
In that game, the team impressed with a stable defense and superior expected goals—a significant improvement on the 6-0 defeat to Bayern Munich on the first matchday.
The Red Bulls have conceded only two goals in the last 450 minutes and are serious contenders for the Champions League spots. The fact that Leipzig is not playing internationally this season could prove to be an advantage.
As the season progresses, Leipzig is expected to maintain its dominance in possession and convert its scoring chances more consistently.
HSV Form check
Hamburger SV’s recent 4-0 win over Mainz has given the promoted team a much-needed boost.
Coach Merlin Polzin has breathed new life into his team by switching to a 3-4-3 system: Goals from Albert Sambi Lokonga and Rayan Philippe provided fresh optimism.
Philippe scored two goals and now has three goals in six games – a clear sign of his ability to lead the offense. This is good news for HSV, who were able to keep the striker in the summer despite interest from other clubs.
But the underlying data tells a different story: with only 6.68 expected goals (xG), Hamburg currently has the second-lowest value in the Bundesliga.
Although the team is unbeaten in three games, creating clear chances remains a problem. What’s more, HSV is the only team in the Bundesliga that has yet to score an away goal.
Can Hamburg celebrate two Bundesliga wins in a row for the first time since April 2018? It will take a huge effort this weekend, as Leipzig poses a formidable challenge.
