Leipzig – Wolfsburg Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 22 on Sunday, 15/04/2026 at 17:30 CET
While RB Leipzig suffered their third defeat against Bayern in the DFB Cup during the week, the Saxons will now return to the Bundesliga in the last game of matchday 22.
Here, too, however, and especially in the Red Bull Arena – a bit of frustration had recently built up. Three defeats conceded in the last four home games called into question the long excellent home record.
RB also thinks back to the upcoming opponent from Wolfsburg not only with pleasant memories. At last year’s guest appearance, the Lower Saxony team had hardly left a stone unturned in the wake of an incredible 5-1 victory in the Red Bull Arena.
This time, however, the Wolves arrive with such big problems that a repeat is probably out of the question. On the contrary: A feasible guest in a low form comes at the right time for the Bulls to declare their own home crisis over.
From my point of view, it is even quite obvious to bet on a clear home win right away when you already see the Red Bulls in front anyway.
After all, experience teaches that Ole Werner’s team likes to make it clear when a successful performance in the Red Bull Arena begins to emerge:
Six of the seven home wins in the current season have come with a lead of at least two goals. In the three home games before last year’s disaster, RB also beat the Wolves 3-0, 2-0 and again 2-0 at home …
Leipzig – Wolfsburg Prediction & Betting Tips
If the handicap bet is a bit too hot for you, I have of course other options for your Leipzig Wolfsburg bets. A classic home win for Leipzig brings odds of 1.44 at bet365. That’s not the world, but it’s a pretty safe bet for a combination bet.
Another exciting variant is the half-time bet. Leipzig have only been behind at half-time in one of ten home games this season. Odds of around 1.90 at German bookmakers that the bulls are leading at half-time are therefore worth more than just considering.
And for all those who are looking for spectacle: Both teams are among the top six in the league in terms of games with over 3.5 goals. In almost half of all games between the two teams, four or more goals were scored. A bet on the Over 3.5 goals could therefore be worthwhile – at odds of about 2.00.
What you need to know about Leipzig vs. Wolfsburg betting
- Leipzig is on course for the Champions League and is playing one of the best rounds in the club’s history with 12 wins from 21 games.
- Wolfsburg are experiencing the worst Bundesliga season in their history with just 19 points after 21 games.
- In the games of both teams, an above-average number of goals are scored. 43% of Leipzig’s and even 48% of Wolfsburg’s games ended with over 3.5 goals.
- Christoph Baumgartner is in top form. He is one of only seven players in the league to have had 20 or more shots on goal in the first 21 games.
Leipzig – Wolfsburg: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
I took a closer look at the numbers of our AI tool, and they absolutely support my Leipzig Wolfsburg prediction. The calculated probability of victory for the home team is a whopping 65.7%, while an away win for the Wolves is only 16.3%.
The system also expects a clear result. The predicted goals are 2.39 for Leipzig and only 1.13 for Wolfsburg. This underpins my tendency to win by at least two goals and makes the Asian Handicap Line so attractive.
At the same time, the artificial intelligence is in favor of the Leipzig Wolfsburg tip “both teams to score”, which is only available for odds of around 1.55 even on the best sports betting apps.
With the sensible addition “Win RB & both score”, however, bettors can once again skilfully turn the odds screw. Thanks to a “price boost”, Oddset, for example, has a strong odd of 2.75.
By the way, the Leipzig Wolfsburg odds on offer indicate an implied probability of victory of 69% for the Saxons. The Wolves only have a 15% chance here, which makes the balance of power clear.
That’s why the Asian Handicap Line of -1.25 is so interesting for Leipzig, with which the bet can be doubled almost exactly. For the full win, RB must win by at least two goals. If you win by just one goal, you’ll get half of your stake back.
The lines are also excitingly set in the goal bet. The Asian Handicap Line for over-goals is 3.5. This means that you need at least four hits in the game to win. In view of the statistics of both teams, this is quite possible.
There are also clear favorites in the goalscorer bets. According to the Leipzig Wolfsburg betting odds, nine Leipzig players, led by Conrad Harder, have better chances of scoring than the most likely Wolfsburg goalscorer, Dzenan Pejcinovic.
The best odds for Leipzig vs. Wolfsburg
The fact that almost all bets propagated by me or the artificial intelligence go in the direction of the hosts has plausible reasons, which, as expected, even the betting providers cannot escape.
In the Leipzig Wolfsburg odds, the RB kickers are equipped with such a clear favorite position that you almost have to feel a little sorry for the guests from Lower Saxony.
The good news from the point of view of security fanatics: With odds of almost exactly 1.50, even a simple home win can still be played justifiably by single bet.
Nevertheless, the winnings will of course be much higher if Leipzig actually miss the triple point win in front of their own supporters for the fourth time in the last five home games.
The first home draw of the current season is already quoted at around 5.00, while a victory for the Wolves even brings an additional five tenths.
Anyone who thinks another slip by Leipzig is conceivable will therefore still be extremely well served with Double Chance X2 at odds of around 2.60.
Leipzig vs Wolfsburg Match Analysis:
Even though Leipzig’s form curve suffered a small dip around the winter break, the Saxons are still an absolute top team and are a whopping 20 points ahead of Wolfsburg in the table. The goal is and remains to qualify for the Champions League.
Against the Wolves, coach Ole Werner’s men cannot afford any slip-ups. This game has a huge importance to keep the competition at bay. A win is almost mandatory, and the players know that very well.
Tactically, Leipzig has changed a bit under Werner. Instead of aggressive counter-pressing, they now rely on a more controlled defence. This has led to them conceding the third fewest goals in the league. Wolfsburg will therefore have an extremely difficult time.
In the first leg, the Wolves already had to experience how difficult it is against Leipzig. Despite an xG value of 3.05, they did not manage to score a goal of their own at 0:1. They will hardly get so many chances in the Red Bull Arena, they have to be ice cold.
But there is a small spark of hope for the guests. Leipzig’s recent problems and the longer preparation time, as RB had to play in the DFB Cup during the week, could play into the Wolves’ hands. But I dare to doubt whether that’s enough.
In the end, there is simply too much to be said for the hosts. In my opinion, the quality in the squad, the home advantage and the unconditional will to put an exclamation mark after a small period of weakness will tip the scales for a clear victory.
Leipzig Form Check
During the week, Leipzig suffered a bitter 2-0 defeat against Bayern in the DFB Cup. It was already the third defeat against the record champions this season, which clearly shows the difference in quality to the absolute top of the league.
But in the Bundesliga, the Bulls remain on course for the Champions League for the time being. The 2-1 win in Cologne at the weekend was extremely important to establish themselves at the top. With twelve wins from the first 21 games, the Saxons are playing one of their best seasons ever.
However, the lawn ball players have also had to cope with some setbacks in the last two months. Defeats against Union Berlin, Leverkusen, Bayern and Mainz even saw Ole Werner’s team slip to sixth place in the table.
After missing out on European business for the first time in the club’s history last season, a return to the international stage seems very likely this year. The quality in the squad is undoubtedly there.
To achieve this goal, however, Leipzig must work on its comeback quality. They are the only team in the league that has not yet been able to pick up a single point from behind this season. So they should better avoid conceding an early goal.
However, the latest win and the chance to play at home against a battered opponent should give us enough of a boost. I’m expecting a highly motivated Leipzig team that wants to make it clear from the first minute who is the master of the house.
Wolfsburg Form Check
It’s hard to believe, but just five years ago, Wolfsburg were still playing in the UEFA Champions League. Now they find themselves in the bottom half of the table and are playing their worst Bundesliga season in history with just 19 points after 21 games.
The Wolves have already suffered twelve defeats this season. After a twelfth and eleventh place in the previous seasons, the guests are once again fighting against the downward trend. The glory days seem to be over for the time being, the relegation battle is real.
A huge problem is the lack of stability. The offense is solid, but the team regularly squanders leads. Wolfsburg have already given away an incredible 18 points this season after taking the lead – a league high.
Defensively, it’s a disaster. Only two teams have conceded more than the 44 goals conceded by the Wolves. They are particularly vulnerable in the final phase: Twelve goals conceded in the last 15 minutes, only Frankfurt is worse.
The Wolves have not kept a clean sheet in 13 Bundesliga games. This is the longest streak since 2014. Only Heidenheim currently has an even longer dry spell without a game to nil. This is a real alarm signal for the defence.
The new coach Daniel Bauer, who replaced Paul Simonis, hopes that the new signings Kento Shiogai, Jeanuël Belocian and Jonas Adjetey can turn the tide. But against a calibre like Leipzig, it will be a mammoth task for the insecure team.
