Leverkusen – Freiburg Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 8 on Sunday, 10/26/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
At first glance, it’s hard to imagine how Bayer could have recovered from their 2-7 defeat to PSG during the week. But it wasn’t all bad! Their xG value of 2.49, for example, was not much lower than that of the French team at 2.86.
Back at the BayArena, their coach is certainly not starting from scratch. In fact, on the eighth matchday of the Bundesliga, I have no qualms about predicting a victory for them over the Breisgauers.
Where you can find the best Bundesliga odds for the most promising betting tips and why, just a few days after their 9-goal performance in the Champions League, another half-dozen goals could rain down is also the subject of my Leverkusen Freiburg prediction.
Despite the historic Champions League defeat, things are running smoothly again under the new coach – at least in the Bundesliga!
Kasper Hjulmand has won four of his five Bundesliga games as coach of Bayer 04 Leverkusen (1 draw) – the same number as in all 21 games at Mainz 05. The Dane is really flourishing in his current coaching job!
Incidentally, only Klaus Augenthaler collected more points (15) than Hjulmand (13) in his first five games as B04 coach.
Leverkusen – Freiburg Prediction & Bets
I like almost all of the soccer bets in the practical Interwetten app that predict goals on both sides in this match.
In fact, my attention is particularly drawn to the selection of B04 win & BTS as well as the BTS option for Leverkusen Freiburg odds of 3.45 and 1.67 on average.
Not only is the 2:7 result a few days ago a strong argument for this, but 12 of the Werkself’s last 13 Bundesliga matches have seen both sides score at least one goal.
Also interesting: the last 10 Bundesliga encounters between the two sides have also met this condition, with B04 celebrating their last three victories over Freiburg despite conceding goals.
What you need to know when betting on Leverkusen vs. Freiburg
- Both teams have scored in each of the last ten direct duels between Leverkusen and Freiburg.
- Nine out of ten of these encounters saw over 2.5 goals (90%).
- The defensive performance of both teams (Leverkusen 7.72 xGA; Freiburg 9.21 xGA, top five in expected goals conceded in the league) could influence the low goal line.
- Leverkusen’s win odds (1.75) have increased compared to earlier in the week. This is likely due to the strain of their 2-7 defeat to PSG in the Champions League.
- Despite the increased odds, this still implies a 57.1% probability of victory for Leverkusen.
- Alex Garcia (Leverkusen) played the most passes in the Bundesliga before matchday 8 with 628 passes.
Leverkusen – Freiburg: AI tip & odds analysis
Over 3.5 goals at odds of around 2.82 is the first recommendation from our AI assistant, and it even has quite good chances of success.
This is because Leverkusen and Freiburg’s average number of Bundesliga goals per 90 minutes this season is 3.86 and 3.14 respectively. So that mark could actually be broken if both sides are even halfway efficient with their chances.
A goal within the first quarter of an hour, on the other hand, promises odds of around 2.65 and bases its chances of success on the fact that B04 has already scored 4 goals within this time frame.
However, I am a little more cautious about this bet than the previous one, for example, because Freiburg has only conceded one of its eleven goals this season before the 16th minute.
The best odds for Leverkusen vs. Freiburg
After their historic defeat against Paris, Leverkusen are at a crossroads – and that could be just what they need to spark the fire that the Werkself need right now.
Under their new coach, they need to respond with a clear signal that the team is more than just a victim of Parisian dominance.
Opponents Freiburg come at an inopportune time: stable, unpleasant, but with defensive weaknesses that Leverkusen will seek to exploit mercilessly. The atmosphere at the BayArena is likely to be electric – redemption is in the air.
The best Leverkusen Freiburg odds are offered by Admiralbet, Interwetten, and Betano: 1.85 for a home win, 3.90 for a draw, and 4.10 for an away win for the Breisgauers.
Leverkusen vs Freiburg match analysis:
For Leverkusen, this match is about quickly forgetting the heavy defeat against PSG and getting back on track for the top four.
Under Kasper Hjulmand, Leverkusen’s play has changed significantly.
After the departure of Xabi Alonso and the brief, unsuccessful interlude of Erik ten Hag, the Dane is bringing more structure and possession-oriented play back into the system – typical of his philosophy.
The numbers confirm this: in their last two Bundesliga matches against Union Berlin and Mainz, Leverkusen had 20 shots on goal in each game, a clear upward trend in their offense.
There are likely to be numerous chances against Freiburg as well, although Schuster’s team will want to withstand the pressure. The Breisgauers are known for their intense pressing and are above the league average in terms of PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action).
In addition, Freiburg knows how to circulate the ball skillfully – everything points to a fast-paced, offensive game in which both sides will make their mark.
Leverkusen form check
Under Kasper Hjulmand, Leverkusen are once again performing strongly in the Bundesliga: they have picked up 13 points from their last five games – only Bayern Munich have been more successful during this period.
The offense is performing well: in the last three games, the Werkself scored eight goals, with Martin Terrier in particular providing stability with his late winner against Mainz and Loic Bade as a defensive stalwart.
Despite this form, the defense remains vulnerable: only one clean sheet in seven games shows that there is still room for improvement at the back.
Leverkusen will focus on possession and control in the match against Freiburg. Alex Garcia underlines this with a league-leading 628 passes.
Hjulmand seems to have stabilized the team and is hoping for a confident, dominant performance – less spectacular but more effective than in the turbulent games so far.
Freiburg Form check
Freiburg have not won a league game since September 20, but Thursday’s 2-0 win over Utrecht in the Europa League shows the potential of the Breisgauers.
Julian Schuster’s tactical adjustments are paying off, especially for Yuito Suzuki, who shone in the attacking ten position and scored his first starting goal since matchday two.
Johan Manzambi also impressed in midfield with a pass completion rate of 97% and was instrumental in creating chances.
Nevertheless, the away record remains poor: Freiburg have won only once in the league on the road so far, and the defense is vulnerable. Only two clean sheets this season underscore the problem.
The ability to launch quick counterattacks, as they did recently in Bologna in the Europa League, will be crucial on Sunday.
