Bundesliga Matchday 6, Saturday, 05.10.2024 at 15:30
David vs Goliath in the Bundesliga on Saturday evening when promoted Kiel visit German champions Leverkusen. After Bayer’s success in the Champions League during the week, they will now be looking to do their homework against the underdogs from the far north.
According to the oddsmakers alone, victory for B04 seems to be only a matter of time. The odds tell the tale: If Holstein pull off the first Bundesliga treble in history on Saturday, it would be an absolute sensation.
As a Kiel supporter who will be at the BayArena on Saturday afternoon, I can only hope that the North Germans don’t come off too badly. But you have to be realistic: Everything points to a resounding victory for the Werkself.
However, you can find out why I’m betting on a Leverkusen success, in which the team from Schleswig-Holstein can also look forward to scoring a goal of their own, in my Leverkusen Kiel betting tip.
Admittedly, the high odds for this option also played a decisive role in the selection of my tip. Bookmaker Winamax has persuaded me to place this bet in the form of a multiplier of 2.50.
After the debacle against Bayern a few weeks ago, will KSV suffer their next defeat against a top club?
The bookmakers’ forecast?
If you look at the bookmakers’ odds, you have to swallow as a Kieler. Betano actually only sees a chance of 1 in 32 that Kiel will win away.
If you want to bet on Leverkusen, you should think about handicap options, because odds of a maximum of 1.1 for a win for the defending champions are anything but appealing.
If you successfully bet on a draw, you can look forward to a 13-fold payout of your stake.
KI prediction Leverkusen vs Kiel: ChatGPT
It looks like the artificial intelligence also has strong doubts that KSV will have even the slightest chance. I have asked ChatGPT to provide me with three bets for this match.
As a high-risk tip, ChatGPT suggests a 3:0 result bet for the home team. The 7.5 odds for this are certainly an argument for taking this risk. However, as I assume that Kiel will also score, this bet is out of the question for me.
The medium-risk bet, on the other hand, is a curious one: ChatGPT contradicts itself and recommends my main tip as the bet for this match. Of course, I’m a little flattered that the AI has the same thing in mind as me, but I’m surprised at the sudden change of heart when I remember ChatGPT’s result bet.
Finally, the artificial intelligence tells me that it thinks a goal from striker Victor Boniface is very likely. The odds for this are somewhere between 1.55 and 1.60, depending on the bookmaker. A goal for the Nigerian wouldn’t surprise me given his strong form, but I can just as easily imagine coach Alonso rotating his goal-scorer out.
Analysis: Leverkusen vs Kiel
“Only” ten points after five games is the weakest start for a German champion in twelve years. Bayer are indeed not quite at the level they were at in large parts of the previous season, but it would be completely inappropriate and presumptuous to use the word crisis.
The Werkself reacted excellently to the end of their winning streak when it came to an end against Leipzig at the end of August. Since then, Bayer have won four out of five games and only dropped two points in the top match at the Allianz Arena.
After two matchdays, there is no question that SVB can also play in the Champions League. Leverkusen won both games and also kept a clean sheet in each.
The 1:0 triumph over AC Milan was also fully deserved, as Leverkusen created a large number of scoring opportunities. In the end, it was once again Boniface who made the difference and was the match-winner.
As mentioned above, I can well imagine Alonso turning on the rotation machine against the newcomers. He already did this regularly last season after long weeks in the European Cup.
But let’s be honest: even with a B-Elf, a resounding victory for the Werkself would be very realistic. In any case, the squad is wide enough to adequately replace key players.
Even though the visitors will go down in history as the worst Bundesliga debutants after five games, this has done little to dampen the euphoria at Kieler Förde. Even in the run-up to the season, everyone was aware that staying in the league would prove to be a mammoth task.
Quotenanalyse
Champions League week or not – the low odds on Leverkusen are absolutely justified, even at this level. The bookies consider a Bayer victory with a 3 goal difference to be the most likely, as the mid-range odds of 1.72 for the Leverkusen handicap of -2.5 give me to understand.
The number of goals also does not bode well for Kiel. If the spectators see more than three goals, the bookmakers are offering the prospect of a payout of 1.6 times the stake.
In my eyes, however, it is ultimately somewhat arbitrary how high the result will be. What is certain, however, is that the Storks never give up and are absolutely fit for the first division in terms of fighting spirit and morale.
This is also proven by the numbers: Kiel are still in 11th place in the table for the 2nd half, but it should not go unmentioned that they were already so clearly behind at half-time against some opponents that they shifted down several gears in the second half of the game.
With a little hope, I would therefore like to throw a bet on Kiel scoring in the second half. In my opinion, 3.00 odds for this is not completely wrong.
Leverkusen vs Kiel odds: Leverkusen unusually vulnerable at the back
An additional argument in favor of a KSV goal is that Leverkusen are a little careless when working against the ball from time to time. In the last two BL home games alone, goalkeeper Hradecky has had to make six saves.
10 goals conceded after 5 games is of course too many for a champion, and they haven’t conceded a single goal in the league. For me, the main reason for this is that Jeremie Frimpong is neglecting his defensive duties too much on the right flank.
In addition, the departure of central defender Kossounou may be more serious than hoped. Tah and Tapsoba are currently often showing deficits in their positioning in the defensive center.
Kiel is the shooting gallery of the league
17 goals conceded in just five games leave every fan baffled. Kiel have conceded at least two goals in every game so far, making the mission to stay in the league almost impossible.
Unfortunately, the flood of goals conceded by KSV is, in my opinion, already on notice. Towards the end of last season, their best central defender, Colin Kleine-Bekel, was seriously injured, yet they didn’t sign a significant replacement in the summer.
With all due respect, Erras and Komenda look so out of their depth in the Bundesliga that you almost feel sorry for them. In terms of pace, technique and understanding of the game, the two central defenders in question are nowhere near first division standard.
However, it wouldn’t be fair to blame them entirely for the poor start. New signing Puchacz and promotion hero Becker are struggling just as much. It’s telling that goalkeeper Weiner is still one of the North Germans’ best despite the amount of goals conceded.
Have I criticized Marcel Rapp’s team enough now, there are also some bright spots at KSV. For example, it should be mentioned that Holstein only failed to score in their first home game against Wolfsburg and have already netted seven times in total.
Crowd favorite and goalscorer Shuto Machino in particular is a source of great joy for the underdogs. With his two goals against Frankfurt on Sunday, he became the first Kiel player ever to score a brace in the Bundesliga. Machino is currently on 4 goals for the season and has scored more than 50 per cent of the promoted club’s goals.
Although both clubs are well over 100 years old, this is only the fourth time that SVB and KSV have crossed paths. The three previous meetings have all gone to the Werkself, with the last encounter taking place a good 21 years ago in the DFB Cup.
Nice side fact: My bet on this match would have been successful in all three direct duels. Is this a good omen for this weekend’s game?
My Leverkusen Kiel tip:
Kiel had absolutely no chance against Bayern at home, so it will probably be no different in Leverkusen. If the Storks don’t stop making individual mistakes, things could end badly again on Saturday.
I imagine the game between Leverkusen and Kiel to go something like this: Leverkusen press, create chances to score and take the lead early on. B04 are already comfortably ahead at the break, meaning that their concentration wanes somewhat afterwards.
Kiel made offensive changes, showed courage and, with a bit of luck, scored the consolation goal. The last few weeks have shown that B04 can be a bit disorganized from time to time.
That’s why my tip is: Leverkusen win and both teams score
