Leverkusen – Mainz Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 24 on Saturday, 28.02.2026 at 15:30 CET
An odd of about 1.72, if I’m right with my Leverkusen Mainz bet on the home side, is certainly not the world. Nevertheless, I feel more comfortable with this pick than with any other match of the seventh matchday of the second half of the season.
Bayer 04 have booked their ticket to the knockout rounds of the Champions League and even though the recent defeat in the Bundesliga against Köpenick was certainly unexpected, there is no reason for me to doubt the long-term success of this team.
Yes, on the other hand, the appointment of Urs Fischer as the new boss has certainly brought some structure into the zero-fives and enlivened their own offensive play. But the latest results show that one should not lose one’s grip on the ground in the carnival city.
Leverkusen usually look forward to visits from FSV because the Werkself have an impressive “scoring streak” against Rheinhessen.
Watch out: Since the 2017/18 season, Leverkusen have scored in all 17 Bundesliga games against Mainz – against no other current Bundesliga club do the Rhinelanders have a longer active goal streak.
In addition, Bayer 04 have managed to reach into the trough of points in the last five Bundesliga matches together (4 wins, 1 draw).
Leverkusen – Mainz Prediction & Betting Tips
Madness, isn’t it? After the four-goal haul against VfB, the Werkself have not conceded a goal at home in five more competitive home games.
Of course, I didn’t miss the fact that FSV has become better offensively – but I still decide to win B04 without conceding a goal at odds of around 3.20. This is because the general risk-return ratio justifies a corresponding betting manoeuvre.
In the offer of various top providers, another interesting offer caught my eye that I would like to put to the test – Asian-HC: Leverkusen (-1.0) at odds around 2.15.
At bet365, you are hedging your bets if the home side do not win by at least two goals, as I expected. In any case, this bet is not at all daring in view of the many personnel absences at FSV.
What you need to consider when betting on Leverkusen vs. Mainz
- Search for consistency under Hjulmand: Despite a strong start, Bayer Leverkusen are fighting for consistency under Kasper Hjulmand; there have been defeats against direct competitors such as Bayern, Dortmund and Stuttgart recently, while an important 3-1 victory against Leipzig was achieved.
- Mainz’s offensive power under Fischer: FSV Mainz 05 are extremely keen to finish under Urs Fischer and have scored at least one goal in ten of twelve games – in addition, the nil-fifth-placed team has earned an expected goals value of over 1.50 in each of the last six games.
- When Mainz play away, goals are almost always scored; nine of the eleven away games so far have ended with more than 2.5 goals – a rate that is only surpassed by FC Bayern and VfB Stuttgart in the league.
- With Aleix Garcia and Alex Grimaldo (5 assists each), Leverkusen have two of the strongest players in the league; García also occupies second place in the league-wide ranking behind Michael Olise with over 460 successful passes in the final third.
Leverkusen – Mainz: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Leverkusen Mainz AI prediction has an interesting combination tip in store, which I first have to explain to you in more detail – namely Win B04 & Patrik Schick scores at odds of currently 2.30.
I’m not usually a fan of this kind of multiple bets, but such a maneuver would not be statistically unfounded in this case.
Our calculation model alludes to the fact that Schick has not only scored three of the last five B04 goals, but also that the Werkself have won all of the last eight games in which the Czech has scored in each case.
Leverkusen/Leverkusen at odds around 2.62 is by the way a betting suggestion that promises a slightly higher profit than my own Leverkusen Mainz tip, without having to strain your luck too much.
After all, the Werkself have won 10 of their 11 Bundesliga games in 2025/26, in which they were already leading at half-time. Interestingly, this was also the case against Mainz in the first half of the season, when a 3-1 lead at half-time turned into an eventful 4-3.
The best odds for Leverkusen vs. Mainz
Despite the very different positions in the table, the Werkself’s role as favourites has not been so clear that a Leverkusen Mainz bet on a home win would automatically be unattractive. The German betting providers remain above the unplayability limit.
A home win by B04 is finally valued at about 1.70. The markets therefore firmly expect the home strength and offensive quality of the hosts, but see enough chances for Mainz to disrupt the course of the game, at least in phases.
The draw is 4.20. This scenario would be conceivable if Mainz defended in a disciplined manner and Leverkusen did not consistently convert their chances.
An away win for FSV, on the other hand, is 4.40. The bookmakers honour the ability of the 05ers to provide moments of surprise, especially through quick transition play, but a win at the BayArena would still be a clear surprise.
The Leverkusen Mainz odds thus paint a duel in which the Werkself are favourites, but M05 certainly have the means at their disposal to make life difficult for the hosts, at least in phases.
Leverkusen vs Mainz Match Analysis:
I expect Leverkusen to take possession of the ball on Saturday thanks to their superior midfield personnel and keep putting Patrik Schick in the limelight.
With controlled combinations through the centre and quick switching to the wings, they will try to put Mainz under constant pressure and open up the spaces for their attackers.
Leverkusen have only suffered three defeats at home this season – against Dortmund, Hoffenheim and Stuttgart – all of them top teams in the league, which also impressively underlines the Werkself’s overall home strength against the league’s small teams.
Mainz have improved offensively under Fischer and score an average of 1.5 goals per league game, around 0.65 more than before he took over. This shows that the Rheinhessen can develop a certain penetration despite the outsider role.
Mainz will therefore try to create danger with quick transitions and counterattacks, but Leverkusen’s quality and ball control in midfield should leave the visitors with only a few spaces.
The bottom line is that I expect a game in which Bayer take the reins, create the majority of the chances and ultimately take the three points, while FSV can set pinpricks at points, but will hardly turn the game around or even dictate it.
Leverkusen form check
Leverkusen suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat at Union Berlin last weekend and lost for the first time in five Bundesliga games.
It was a setback for Kasper Hjulmand’s team that dropped the Werkself to sixth place, four points behind fourth.
Nevertheless, I don’t expect them to encounter any further problems on Saturday. Because usually top teams are the “problem” for B04, as they have had to accept defeats against Bayern, Dortmund, Stuttgart and Hoffenheim since November.
Incidentally, the only victory against a top four rival was the 3-1 win at Leipzig on matchday 13.
In terms of personnel, Hjulmand continues to worry about the attack. Malik Tillman is questionable for the starting eleven, while Eliesse Ben Seghir and Nathan Tella are out for the entire month of March.
The defence is not complete either: Loic Bade is out for at least a week, so Andrich will step in. In goal, the other support Mark Flekken will also be missing, so Janis Blaswich will get his chance – he has already shown some solid performances recently.
Mainz Form Check
Mainz started the season bumpily and had collected just six points by matchday 12 – a low value that flushed the Rheinhessen to the bottom of the table and initially faded the memories of last year’s strong position and Conference League participation.
However, the decision to replace Bo Henriksen with Urs Fischer has given the team noticeably new momentum.
Fischer’s first Bundesliga game drew 2-2 against Bayern, and Mainz collected 14 points in the following seven league games before the defeat in Dortmund on Matchday 22 brought the team back down to earth.
This phase shows that Mainz are much more stable under Fischer, are courageous even against stronger opponents and are gaining consistency again.
For the upcoming duel against Leverkusen, however, Mainz are plagued by numerous absences. Anthony Caci is suffering from an adductor injury and will not be fit in time, Andreas Hanche-Olsen is missing again after his absence against Dortmund, and Nelson Weiper has to miss out due to illness.
Sota Kawasaki is also unavailable, and Stefan Bell, Maxim Dal, Benedict Hollerbach and goalkeeper Robin Zentner are missing in the long term.
The personnel gaps present Fischer with the challenge of keeping the defence compact and at the same time generating offensive power in order to be competitive against Leverkusen.
