Leverkusen – PSG Tip Champions League, Matchday 3 on Tuesday, 10/21/25 at 9:00 p.m.
The Werkself has now found its form again under its new coach, which has been clear since last weekend’s Bundesliga matches at the latest.
Nevertheless, the betting providers with Paysafcard seem to be indirectly supporting my Leverkusen PSG tip with their odds on Tuesday. This is because they also consider the visitors from Paris, who are significantly stronger than Mainz, to be the clear favorites.
This is no coincidence! Of course, the French have a few personnel losses to contend with here and there, but they have won 11 of their last 14 European Cup games within 90 minutes.
Their own xG value during this period averaged 2.86 per game, while that of the opposing team was always significantly lower at 0.86.
In short: if everything goes according to plan and the Parisians play to their full potential, there should be little for Leverkusen to gain.
Do you know why it might actually be worth trusting my Leverkusen PSG tip? Quite simply: the Parisians have a coach under contract who stands for pure success.
Of all coaches with at least 50 games in the Champions League, Luis Enrique has the highest win rate (65.6%) in the competition – and with 2.2 goals per game, the second-highest average overall, surpassed only by Pep Guardiola (2.36).
Leverkusen – PSG Prediction & Bets
Since the start of the 2023/24 season, Paris SG’s Bradley Barcola has the worst expected goals (xG) record of any player in the Champions League.
In fact, he has only converted four of his 23 big chances during this period – a disastrous conversion rate of just 17%.
This has prompted most bookmakers to increase his goal odds for Tuesday! But right now, the much-shunned betting option of Barcola to score could be particularly worthwhile at odds of around 2.62.
The Frenchman scored against Strasbourg at the weekend and was the most active player on the pitch for his team.
As I don’t expect many goals on Tuesday anyway, even the riskier selection of 1st goalscorer: Barcola at a significantly higher 7.00 could pay off.
What you need to consider when betting on Leverkusen vs. PSG
- Since the start of last season, Leverkusen has won only five of its twelve Champions League games.
- However, Leverkusen won the xG (expected goals) duel in eight of those games.
- PSG won 11 of 13 Champions League games in regular time in 2025.
- PSG scored an average of 2.92 goals per game, 2.15 more than their opponents.
- The bet “Both teams to score – No” would have been successful in five of Leverkusen’s six Champions League home games at the BayArena since last season.
Leverkusen – PSG: AI tip & odds analysis
Our data model and I don’t always see eye to eye. I can’t make much sense of the predicted outcome of the game in its Leverkusen PSG AI prediction. But let’s take it one step at a time!
On the one hand, none of Paris’ last 101 Champions League games ended 0-0, but on the other hand, only 4 of Werkself’s last 12 home games at the BayArena broke the famous 2.5-goal mark.
And since PSG has already played 1-0 or 2-0 an astonishing number of times in 2025/26, I can live with the first computer-generated recommendation, under 3.5 goals at odds of around 1.57, quite well—even under 2.5 goals at slightly higher odds of 2.40 is a reasonable alternative.
What I do have a problem with, however, is the second part of the Leverkusen PSG AI prediction, as it recommends the double chance 1X bet type.
Sure, the odds of around 2.3x if successful are certainly appealing to me, but the German runners-up are no longer as powerful as they were under Alonso.
The AI seems to be insisting on the fact that B04 has only lost 2 of its last 18 main round games in the Europa League or Champions League, but in my opinion, that’s just statistical window dressing!
The best odds for Leverkusen vs. PSG
The Champions League clash par excellence: Leverkusen vs. PSG – an evening when even neutral fans will be glued to the pitch.
Two teams known for their attacking fireworks will face each other in what is likely to be the most spectacular match of the third matchday.
The best odds are available at Oddset and Betano: 5.00 for a home win for the Werkself, 4.30 for a draw and 1.65 for the French favorites.
While Leverkusen is relying on passion, pace and tactical cleverness after its victory over Mainz in the Bundesliga, PSG is relying on pure star power and individual excellence.
All of Europe is watching – this is where it will be decided whether Bayer can actually compete for the title in the top flight in the long term.
Leverkusen vs PSG match analysis:
Leverkusen will most likely attack down the left again on Tuesday – just as they did in their recent win against Mainz.
No other team in the Champions League creates as much danger on this wing: 57 percent of all chances created come from the left offensive third.
This shows how much the Werkself relies on the dynamism and creativity of this side.
Another key to success for the hosts is likely to be the precise vertical passes from deep in the box.
Edmond Tapsoba is one of the best center backs in Europe in this regard – he has already played 34 line-breaking passes, the same number as Josko Gvardiol.
Leverkusen also excels in midfield with its passing strength: Aleix García is just behind top players such as Rodri and Veerman with 30 passes that break through the opposing lines.
This combination of controlled possession, targeted passes into space and overloads on the left could be the decisive factor on Tuesday in putting the opposition under sustained pressure.
Leverkusen form check
With two points after the first two UCL matchdays, Leverkusen has shown fighting spirit!
The team came back from behind twice, including in the 1-1 draw with PSV Eindhoven, when youngster Christian Kofane made history by becoming the club’s youngest Champions League goalscorer.
Nevertheless, it remained a missed opportunity for the Werkself, who are still waiting for their first win in Europe’s premier competition.
The recent Bundesliga win over Mainz suggests that Leverkusen is back on track under Kasper Hjulmand, but a clash with PSG may still be a little too early.
Against the French superstars, B04 will be pushed to the limits of its own development – anything other than a win for the visitors would be a surprise in my opinion.
PSG form check
PSG travels to Leverkusen with plenty of confidence after their 2-1 win over Barcelona.
Even without the injured Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele, Goncalo Ramos became the match winner in Catalonia and ensured that the reigning champions could continue their winning streak.
But beware: Paris did not look particularly good in Ligue 1 at the weekend – once again.
After a 1-1 draw against Lille, they were unable to leave the pitch as winners against Strasbourg (3-3).
Precisely because the multi-million-dollar squad conceded three goals and allowed an opponent xG value of 2.14, I firmly believe that coach Luis Enrique will want to see a solid defensive performance from his boys on Tuesday.
