Leverkusen – St. Pauli Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 22 on Saturday, 14/02/2026 at 15:30 CET
Even a first-class bookmaker like Winamax Germany offers me odds that are minimally too low to consider making a simple home win bet here. But don’t worry, I know better anyway!
My Leverkusen St. Pauli tip trusts in the strong offense of the Rhinelanders – it’s not for nothing that the selection B04 made it directly onto my list over 1.5 goals at odds of about 1.60 without detours.
Yes, the Kiezkicker may have just celebrated their most impressive victory of the season – congratulations at this point. But 90 minutes at the BayArena can still be very long. Especially since the Werkself have scored an average of more than two Bundesliga home goals per game so far.
It’s no surprise that the lower-placed teams like Heidenheim (6-0) at the BayArena got more than the stronger clubs in the top flight. And the 3-0 defeat of the “Boys in Browns” in the DFB Cup was less than two weeks ago
And yes, the already mentioned 3-0 cup victory over the Kiezkicker is a good argument for my Leverkusen St. Pauli tip. But the direct comparison also strengthens my betting intention.
Because Leverkusen have not met any opponent in the Bundesliga as often in this millennium without conceding a defeat as the cult club from the Hanseatic city (5 wins, 2 draws).
If you also include the aforementioned DFB Cup quarter-finals before the Rhinelanders’ fifth appearance in the second half of the season according to the Bundesliga fixtures, then Bayer 04 have won five of their last six competitive games against Hamburg.
Leverkusen – St. Pauli Prediction & Betting Tips
If the Werkself score at least two goals – as I hoped – a home win is actually the logical consequence. Especially since the Kiezkicker were already dispatched 3-0 in the last meeting in the DFB Cup.
My combination tip: Win Leverkusen & Over 1.5 goals brings in an average odd of 1.82. Whether the guests will score at least a goal of honour, on the other hand, is much more difficult to assess – for me a classic 50:50 thing without any discernible tendency!
But who could definitely score is Martin Terrier. He was only on the pitch for 11 minutes against Gladbach on the last matchday, but immediately before that he showed a strong performance against the Kiezkicker in his team’s semi-finals.
What you need to know about Leverkusen vs. St. Pauli betting
- Bayer Leverkusen dominate the historic record with four wins from their last five meetings, but St. Pauli have proven to be tenacious, scoring at least once in four of those five meetings
- The roles are clearly divided: With a chance of victory of only 14% and only one away win in the entire season, the Hamburg team travels to the Rhine as a clear outsider
- Goal guarantee vs. minimalism: While Leverkusen games are real spectacles with an average of 3.30 goals, St. Pauli ranks at the bottom of the league statistics with 2.62 goals per game
- Alejandro Grimaldo is the linchpin of Bayer’s attack: With eight big chances and five assists, he is the top favourite for an assist next weekend
Leverkusen – St. Pauli: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
In contrast to me, the Leverkusen St. Pauli AI forecast of our data model tends relatively clearly towards a win in B04 without conceding a goal – i.e. a clean sheet for the hosts. And this can be statistically well substantiated!
The “Boys in Browns” have scored the fewest Bundesliga goals so far (20) and have only had 223 shots on goal, the lowest figure of its kind in the league.
On Saturday, they will also face the third-best defence in the league – the best statistical conditions to speculate on a clean home win for the Werkself without conceding a goal!
Personally, however, I remain true to my gut feeling and stay completely away from this betting scenario!
If the AI is right with its clean sheet victory of the Rhinelanders, then on the same statistical basis I can also understand why the optimism of our forecast model regarding its second proposal is also high – namely victory B04 with HC -1 to a 2.32.
The end of January marked the beginning of a phase in which Bayer scored 3+ goals in three of four competitive games – especially in the Champions League win over Villarreal (3-0), the ball ran extremely smoothly in their own ranks.
Of course, the victory of the Kiezkicker over Stuttgart should not be ignored, but Leverkusen are in good spirits and better rehearsed than ever before this season. If the home side call up their normal form, they would have to swing the thing home confidently.
The best odds for Leverkusen vs. St. Pauli
Only two weeks after the direct showdown in the DFB Cup, the betting markets are largely sticking to their assessment at the time. Within the newly determined Leverkusen St. Pauli odds, the bookmakers continue to see a clear bias in favour of the Werkself.
A home win for Leverkusen is offered at 1.45. The quota signals great confidence in possession football, the pace of the game and the individual quality of the Rhinelanders. The Werkself are expected to structure the game and build up pressure on the long term.
The draw is listed at 4.70. From a market point of view, this scenario seems more like an exceptional case – for example, if St. Pauli plays almost flawlessly defensively and Leverkusen despairs of converting chances.
An away win for St. Pauli is 6.25. The Hamburg team clearly arrives in the role of the underdog, but with intensity and courage going forward, they have the potential to at least force unpleasant phases of the game.
The Leverkusen St. Pauli odds of the German bookmakers thus illustrate a balance of power in which B04 should clearly set the tone, while St. Pauli must focus above all on resilience and efficiency.
Leverkusen vs St. Pauli Match Analysis:
You should expect a similar course of play here as in the DFB Cup quarter-finals. Leverkusen will take command from the start, collect a lot of possession and shift the game into St. Pauli’s half.
The Kiezkicker are likely to be even more passive than two weeks ago, standing deep and trying to keep the spaces in front of their own penalty area narrow.
It is precisely this behaviour that runs through their season anyway, because St. Pauli usually acts in a wait-and-see manner and deliberately invites opponents to build up pressure – with rather moderate success so far.
The recent surprise coup over VfB has not changed the style of play of this team abruptly!
B04 should have permanent control of the game and create a variety of scoring chances. The individual quality and the combination play of the Werkself are likely to pose problems for St. Pauli again and again, especially when quick lateral shifts come into play.
Although Hamburg’s offense has stabilized slightly in recent away games, with the lowest xG value in the Bundesliga, their quality of chances remains extremely manageable.
That’s why Pauli is likely to hope for isolated relief attacks, while Leverkusen set the pace of the game, build up pressure and look for ways through the compact defence step by step.
Leverkusen form check
Leverkusen did not get beyond a 1-1 draw against Gladbach in the Rhine derby last weekend.
Although Bayer are unbeaten in three Bundesliga games, they have dropped important points in the race for the Champions League places, as Leipzig are currently three points ahead in fourth place.
After all, Leverkusen still have a catch-up game against Hamburg on March 4 up their sleeve, thanks to which they can theoretically jump to fourth place themselves.
With a view to the upcoming Champions League play-off against Olympiakos, the team is determined to continue to score points in a stable manner. That’s why they will go full throttle against St. Pauli from the start!
In terms of personnel, Leverkusen will still have to do without regular keeper Mark Flekken, which is why Janis Blaswich will be in goal again.
Offensively, Eliesse Ben Seghir and Nathan Tella are also missing, which should give players like Martin Terrier or Jonas Hofmann more playing time. That’s why I’m speculating so much on a goal from the Frenchman!
St. Pauli Form Check
St. Pauli celebrated their first win of 2026 last weekend, beating Stuttgart 2-1 at home. Goals from Manolis Saliakas and Danel Sinani provided three extremely important points.
Despite the success, St. Pauli is still stuck in the bottom of the table, but was able to reduce the gap to Bremen and Wolfsburg to just two points.
It remains striking that the Hamburg team has only won two Bundesliga games in a row once this season – once on matchdays two and three. This was followed by a long negative series with nine defeats in a row.
Coach Alexander Blessin will have to continue to improvise in the line-up, as several important players are missing. Particularly painful is the absence of Andreas Hountondji, who is not expected to return until the end of April.
In addition, Ricky-Jade Jones, Connor Metcalfe, David Nemeth and Simon Spar are still out of action. There is at least hope with Eric Smith and Hauke Wahl, who are considered questionable, but may not be substituted until the course of the game.
