Bundesliga Matchday 9, Friday, 01.11.2024 at 20:30
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart. Or: Champions against runners-up from the previous season.
The 9th Bundesliga matchday kicks off on Friday evening with a real top duel, even if I would like to start my Leverkusen Stuttgart tip with the suspicion that both teams will be well served with Champions League qualification at the end of this season.
Especially on the Stuttgart side, the question arises as to whether the squad actually has the playing quality to target one of the top four places.
My selected main tip “Double chance 1X & Both teams to score” leaves at least no room for an away win at the BayArena.
The Swabians are actually in need of three points after a far from outstanding start to the season. With Bayern and RB Leipzig currently eight points behind at the top of the table, they at least seem to have pulled away early on.
In my Leverkusen Stuttgart prediction, I’m focusing on the shaky defenses of both teams.
For me, a high-scoring exchange with a better ending for the Werksclub is the much more likely scenario than a classic 0:0.
Accordingly, I will show you numerous goal bets as betting alternatives in the course of my analysis, which speak for an above-average number of goals.
The forecast of the betting providers?
The question of the favorite is quickly clarified. Unsurprisingly, Bayer Leverkusen go into the game in front of a home crowd with a clear advantage.
In the Admiralbet app, you can find solid odds of around 1.60 for a Leverkusen win, meaning that the home win is also playable as a single bet without any ifs or buts.
However, the away win is clearly a risk bet. If VfB wins on the Rhine, a brisk 5.10 is due.
And the draw is also comparatively lucrative at 4.60. If I had to choose a normal 1×2 bet, however, “Tip 1” would be my bet of choice.
KI prediction Leverkusen vs Stuttgart: This is what ChatGPT
At this point, ChatGPT gets involved as usual. Our Leverkusen Stuttgart AI prediction focuses on a total of three tips.
ChatGPT has decided on “Bayer win with handicap -2” as a high-risk tip. And I have to say that I can definitely live with that. A 4:1 win for Leverkusen is at least not unrealistic.
In the medium-risk tip, the AI comes up with “Over 3.5 goals”. And again, I’m not averse to patting the AI on its virtual back. After all, I’m also expecting a high-scoring encounter in which both teams take part and drive up the number of goals.
As a low-risk tip, ChatGPT predicts that Bayer Leverkusen will score the first goal. Of course, the probability of Bayer scoring first as the favorite is generally increased. In general, however, I’m not a fan of betting on the immediate course of the game like this.
Analysis: Leverkusen vs Stuttgart
During the week, Bayer Leverkusen showed no weakness in the 2nd round of the DFB Cup and defeated SV Elversberg 3:0.
Good for Bayer: For the first time in four games, the defending champions did not concede a goal. But here, too, appearances are deceptive.
After all, Leverkusen conceded a total of 13 goals to the second division side. In general, defense remains the Werkself’s biggest problem. After eight games in the Bundesliga, they have already conceded 15 goals. In the entire previous season, they conceded 24.
Accordingly, I assume that Bayer’s defense will also be in trouble against Stuttgart on Friday. If VfB score at least two goals, the odds will be a great 2.55.
VfB also made it through the second round of the cup. However, the Swabians visibly struggled in the 2:1 win against 1. FC Kaiserslautern in front of their home crowd.
In general, Stuttgart’s wave of success from the previous season has waned noticeably to this point. VfB have only won three of their first eight Bundesliga games this season.
The most recent 2:1 win against Lautern and the previous victory against Holstein Kiel with the same result clearly show that the southern Germans lack the necessary ease even against inferior opponents.
Worryingly, Stuttgart have conceded at least one goal in 12 of their last 13 matches.
Combined with the fact that they currently have the third-best offense in the league with 17 goals scored, “Both teams to score” inevitably comes into focus for the match against Bayer. As a single bet, the odds come close to the important 1.50 mark.
Odds analysis
The odds of 1.40 for the bet “Over 2.5 goals” say it all about the match. Top bookmakers Winamax expect the game to go off on Friday evening.
But how will the first half go? I can get on board with the idea that both teams will initially run the cup fatigue out of their legs in the first half and that the wild scenes will become noticeably more frequent in the second half.
The bet “There will be more goals in the second half” is therefore an option for me. The bet on a draw at the break is in a similar vein.
A 1:1 after the first 45 minutes? Certainly not an absurd idea. The odds of 2.60 for a draw at half-time are dripping with value in my opinion.
Stuttgart can’t find their feet away from home!
Of course, I still owe you the respective home and away statistics. Stuttgart’s away problems are striking. VfB have only won one of their first four away games.
With one draw and two defeats and a goal difference of 6:10, they are just twelfth in the away table ahead of the matchday.
The truth is, however, that Leverkusen are unable to match their home performances of the previous season. In the championship-winning season, Bayer scored just 45 of a possible 51 points at home.
They currently have five home points and are only ninth in the home table. Nine goals conceded in four home games is definitely too many.
Bayer with a strong run against VfB!
The first thing that stands out when looking at the direct comparison is that VfB Stuttgart are not exactly among the Rhinelanders’ most fearful opponents. Bayer have only lost 23 of their 91 matches to date.
In fact, Leverkusen are currently on a run of success against the Swabians.
The Werkself have not lost their last ten Bundesliga matches against VfB. Stuttgart’s last victory dates back to the 2017/18 season. Back then, the southern Germans won 1:0 at the BayArena.
The truth is, however, that the two teams have met on equal terms in the recent past.
The last three Bundesliga duels have each ended in a draw. The bet “Double chance Leverkusen & both teams score” would have been successful in each case.
However, Leverkusen’s home record against Stuttgart is really impressive. Bayer have lost only 7 of 48 home games against VfB
The goal difference is clearly in Leverkusen’s favor (94:47).
Impressive: Of the last 13 home games against Stuttgart, only one was lost. That makes one home defeat in just under 15 years.
Another striking fact is that the two teams have scored comparatively many goals recently. At least two goals have been scored in each of the last eight matches.
My Leverkusen Stuttgart tip:
The statistics of the direct comparison prove it: The BayArena is not a good place for VfB Stuttgart.
They regularly score goals against Bayer, but simply can’t win. And I actually see this pattern as a blueprint for the clash on Friday evening.
I expect Stuttgart to be brave enough to engage in an open exchange of blows with the defending champions, but not come away victorious in the end.
Accordingly, my Leverkusen Stuttgart betting tip is: Double chance 1X & Both teams to score
